Several Latin American countries fear that the crisis in Venezuela will unleash a wave of refugees. Colombia wants to help, but it fears proposed border refugee camps could aggravate the problem more than alleviate it.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/L. Acosta
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"Venezuela is my worst nightmare," Colombian president Juan Manuel Santos confessed on November 9, when receiving an award in London for his efforts securing a peace agreement in his country.
"An implosion in Venezuela would indeed be a great threat to Colombia, both for the peace process and for the 2018 presidential elections," confirmed political analyst Roberto Cajamarca Gomez, a former Colombian diplomat, while speaking with DW.
Colombian medics tend to refugees from Venezuela. Many cross over to get food or medicine. Image: Alcaldía de Soledad
The worst-case scenario would arise out of Venezuela declaring bankruptcy. "People in Venezuela are not only dying of starvation, they are also dying due tolack of medical drugs and the disastrous state of the country's healthcare system," said Venezuelan attorney Elenis Rodriguez, who is attempting to set up a humanitarian aid program while in Colombian exile.
Fear of a humanitarian crisis
Several neighboring countries, among them Peru and Colombia, have already begun taking in Venezuelan refugees. Others, such as Panama, have closed their borders, said Cajamarca Gomez. In the face of a looming humanitarian crisis, a confederation known as the Lima Group has called for "a crisis summit to be convened to discuss the situation in Venezuela and to organize and coordinate humanitarian aid." The Lima Group consists of 11 Latin American countries plus Canada.
Colombia's migration authority estimated in July that nearly half a million Venezuelans entered the country through a special program for which no passport is needed. The authority also thought between 100,000 and 140,000 Venezuelans entered through unauthorized means. In addition to sharing these numbers on Twitter, the authority said that 52% of Venezuelans who had entered Colombia through the passport-less system came to buy food or aid.
"As a government, we cannot ignore the reality facing the people of Venezuela, and we certainly cannot close our doors to our neighbors. It is for those reasons that we have set up a special residency permit for Venezuelan citizens, one that regulates their refugee status and also affords them the right to work in Colombia," said Christian Krueger, director of the migration authority.
Yet the situation that Venezuelan refugees find themselves in appears to be far more problematic than the director suggests. According to media reports, many are willing to work for much less than minimum wage. They often work for cash and without health insurance. Many cannot afford accommodations, so they sleep at the bus stations at which they arrived — in Bogota, Cali or Barranquilla.
Many arrivals from Venezuela in Colombia have no place to stayImage: Getty Images/AFP/L. Acosta
Implications for the Colombian peace process
The border between Colombia and Venezuela is 2,200 kilometers (1,370 miles) long. In the event that the crisis in Venezuela gets worse and facing the threat of a major wave of refugees, Colombian officials are contemplating setting up seven refugee camps near the border. However, the move would also pose a dilemma.
"If you announce that you are setting up refugee camps, it could be interpreted as an invitation and eventually make the situation worse still," a government official told DW. Should that become the case, Colombia would be in desperate need of assistance from other countries as well as international aid organizations if it is to have any chance of mastering the humanitarian crisis, said Cajamarca Gomez.
Although no party in Colombia is currently calling to close the border, President Santos' nightmare is not unfounded. "The more the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela escalates, the more ground the extreme right and opponents of the peace process will gain," Cajamarca Gomez finds.
The president's nightmare is primarily political in nature. Nevertheless, the fate of people seeking to flee the chaos in Venezuela is an issue that is just as pressing. How to deal with that, it seems, is a question that no one in Latin America has any idea how to answer.
Venezuela on the brink
Venezuela is facing collapse amid multiple crises. DW takes a look at what has brought the oil-rich nation to its knees.
In March 2017, violent protests erupted across the country in response to a Supreme Court decision to strip the legislative branch of its powers. Amid an international outcry, President Nicolas Maduro reversed the decision, but it was too late. Thousands continued to take to the streets, calling for new elections. More than 100 people were killed in clashes with security forces.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/J. Barreto
Hunger, a growing problem
The violence added to the ongoing economic and political crisis in Venezuela. Many Venezuelans spend more than 30 hours a week waiting in lines to shop, and are often confronted with empty shelves when they finally enter a store. President Maduro blames the crisis on US price speculation. The opposition, however, accuses the Socialist government of economic mismanagement.
Image: picture-alliance/AA/C. Becerra
Health care in crisis
The crisis has even affected health care in the oil-rich nation. Venezuelans often head to Colombia to collect medical supplies to send home, as seen in this picture. Hospitals across Venezuela have compared conditions to those seen only in war zones. As patient deaths rise, health officials have sounded the alarm on the rise of malaria and dengue fever.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/M.Duenas Castaneda
Power grab
By July 2017, Venezuela's pro-government Constituent Assembly was established. For observers, it had all the hallmarks of a power grab. The new body adopted the authority to pass legislation on a range of issues, effectively taking away the powers of Venezuela's elected congress, which was under the opposition's control. The move drew wide international condemnation.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/P. Miraflores
The West sanctions
In response to the political crisis, the United States and European Union imposed a series of sanctions against ruling officials. The US blacklisted members of the Constituent Assembly and froze all of Maduro's assets that are subject to US jurisdiction. The EU banned arms sales to the country.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AFP/T. Schwarz
Government victorious in regional elections
In October 2017, Venezuela held two votes: regional elections and elections for governors, which were long overdue. The opposition boycotted the vote, but then split, as some candidates and small parties chose to participate. This caused a deep rift within Maduro's opponents. The government went on to sweep the vote, which detractors say was unfair and heavily favored the regime.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Cubillos
Debt default
In November 2017, the oil-rich, cash-poor nation faced its day of reckoning. Credit ratings agencies declared Venezuela and its state-run oil company in "selective default." But Russia offered to restructure the South American country's debt to ensure Caracas pays its other creditors. US and EU sanctions, however, limited the chance of an agreement.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Cubillos
Presidential elections scheduled
The National Assembly announced in January 2018 that it would grant Maduro's call for snap presidential elections. The electoral authority, CNE, held the elections on May 20. The EU, the US and 14 Latin American nations warned that they would not recognize the results. The mainstream MUD opposition alliance boycotted the vote, leaving only one possible outcome.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/F. Parra
Maduro wins ...
Maduro was re-elected to a second six-year term with about 68 percent of the vote. Turnout was only 46 percent, according to electoral authorities. However, the MUD opposition alliance put turnout at less than 30 percent. The Organization of American States (OAS) called the elections neither free nor fair.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Cubillos
... Guaido assumes power
But weeks into the new year, the situation took a drastic turn. On January 23, 2019, parliament president Juan Guaido declared himself interim president of Venezuela — a move that was quickly recognized by US President Donald Trump. Maduro called it a US-backed "coup." Days later, the US sanctioned Venezuela's state oil firm, while Guaido staked his claim on the country's foreign assets.
