Days before the vote, Ethiopia's electoral body, the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), announced that elections would not take place in 46 electoral districts in the conflict-affected Amhara and Tigray regions, citing insecurity and political tensions.

The NEBE said voting would not take place in eight of the 138 electoral districts in the northwestern Amhara region because of what it described as "unfavorable conditions" amid clashes between militia groups and the army. The board also suspended voting in 38 districts in Tigray, where tensions remain high between the federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

Ethiopia's 130 million citizens are hoping for an improvement in their daily lives when they go to the polls for parliamentary elections on June 1.

"Even though I'm not satisfied with the current economic situation, I believe the ruling Prosperity party will remain in power," a 50-year-old man in Addis Ababa, who chose to remain anonymous, told DW.

Another young voter spoke of the necessity for peace in the country, saying that only then can real development be realized. "That would alleviate the current inflation problem," he told DW, adding that he hopes the election would result in peace and stability.

"Elections are always good," said a 26-year-old man in Ethiopia's capital, who also opted to remain anonymous. "But too little attention is being paid to the problems of people struggling with inflation." As a young citizen, he said he was very concerned about the exodus of many young Ethiopians to other countries due to a lack of jobs.

Concerns ahead of June 1 elections

Contrary to the hopes of the suffering people, experts say the situation will remain fragile. "The elections in Ethiopia will be a purely formal affair that lends the government electoral legitimacy. There is no way to change or challenge the government through the elections," Kjetil Tronvoll, a peace and conflict researcher at Oslo New University College, told DW. For him, the electoral process is a symbolic exercise rather than a political contest.

The Coalition for the Unity of Ethiopia (CEU), an alliance of several opposition parties is voicing similar criticisms. The CEU is calling for "an end to the war, the release of political prisoners, greater political freedom, and talks with the genuine opposition and the elites as a prerequisite for the elections," spokesperson Getnet Worku said.

CEU president Abraham Getu stressed that the coalition's participation would depend on developments on the ground. "The decision will be determined by the current concrete circumstances," Getu added.

The government is also cracking down hard on journalists. In October 2025, all nine local DW correspondents were temporarily suspended. In December 2025, seven were allowed to return to work. In the remaining cases, the authorities tightened measures and revoked the accreditation of two DW journalists. 

The NEBE has published figures that, at first glance, reflect a functioning democracy: 47 registered political parties, nearly 11,000 candidates and millions of voters. However, the ruling Prosperity Party holds 457 of the 547 parliamentary seats.

Experts agree that this will remain the case. "On June 1, Ethiopians will almost certainly re-elect Prime Minister Abiy with a majority of over 90%," political analyst Martin Plaut told DW. "He achieved that last time, and he will achieve it this time as well."

He, too, sees the election as a form of legitimization for the government. "Whether this will have any real impact on the lives of ordinary people is truly unclear," Plaut said. "And whether this will lead to further unrest and conflicts — either with the northern region of Tigray or by enabling Prime Minister Abiy to start a war with Eritreaor get entangled in further conflicts in Sudan — we simply don't know."

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that the election signaled stability and progress. But the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, honored at the time for democratic reforms, now stands at the helm of a nation deeply divided along various fault lines.

Rising tensions with Tigray

According to analysts, efforts by the dominant TPLF party in Ethiopia's Tigray region to regain control of the region could lead to renewed war with the federal government.

Between 2020 and 2022, the TPLF waged a brutal civil war against the federal government that claimed at least 600,000 lives. The 2022 peace agreement led to the formation of a new transitional government to administer Tigray and sidelined the TPLF's leadership. 

Since then, little political progress has been made. The TPLF's old guard reinstated the regional parliament and elected TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael as its speaker — a power play that threatens peace.

The TPLF ruled Ethiopia for three decades but was banned as a political party in 2025, following the war in Tigray and the subsequent peace deal. Abiy's demands for direct access to the Red Sea are also fueling tensions with Eritrea.

In addition, Fano militias in the Amhara region and the Oromo Liberation Army in Oromia are fighting against the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF). The Fano militia controls some key cities and roads in the Amhara region.

Election outcome predictable

According to Tronvoll, the elections could lead to local instability in certain regions of the country. Some of the militia groups have issued statements opposing the holding of the elections. "Therefore, they might try to disrupt the electoral process in the local communities where they are present or attack the process," he added.

According to Plaut, the elections are not democratic: "These are not real elections and should not be regarded as such." But Plaut also said this does not mean the country is at a crossroads. The dangers lie in the complex political situation that persists even after the election, he said, referring to the growing tensions between Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan. 

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is Ethiopia's strongest ally, but the Gulf state has long been accused by UN experts and international observers of covertly supplying the paramilitary RSF militia in Sudan — which is fighting against the Sudanese army — with weapons, drones and money. This could destabilize the entire region, according to Plaut.

Seyoum Getu Hailu in Addis Ababa and Kathy Short contributed to this article

Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu