In an election that may shape the future of the Turkish Cypriot community ― and potentially the whole of Cyprus ― Turkish Cypriots have elected their new leader. The 55-year-old moderate Tufan Erhurman is supported by the left-wing CTP party, smaller progressive parties and trade unions. He prevailed over his rival, outgoing "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus" (TRNC) president Ersin Tatar, securing 62.8% of the vote against Tatar's 35.5%.

It is the largest electoral victory in the history of Turkish Cypriot elections since the era of their historic leader and founder of the self-proclaimed state recognized only by Turkey, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), Rauf Denktas.

Sunday's victory was celebrated accordingly, with thousands of Turkish Cypriots taking to the streets of north Nicosia and listening to Tufan Erhurman promise change — to the sound, not coincidentally, of the traditional Cypriot song "Tylliriotissa."

Message of federation and identity

Speaking to DW, academic and former member of the European Parliament Niyazi Kizilyurek said that "Tufan Erhurman's sweeping victory sends a clear political message regarding the will of the majority of the Turkish Cypriot community to return to the negotiating table for a solution to the Cyprus Problem."

Kizilyurek is referring to the island's division into a Greek Cypriot south and Turkish Cypriot north since Turkey's military intervention of 1974, following intercommunal violence in the 1960s.

Indeed, Erhurman campaigned on a platform of returning to talks based on UN resolutions. He criticized the policy of Tatar and Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who have been pursuing a two-state solution in Cyprus, as a dead end.

According to Kizilyurek, Erhurman's electoral triumph also sends a clear message about redefining relations between Turkish Cypriots and Ankara, particularly in relation to Erdogan's AK-party's (AKP) policy of imposing political Islam on the community.

Preserving Turkish Cypriots' secularism

Erhurman ran for the "presidency" with the objective of preserving Turkish Cypriots' secularism and the visibility of their Cypriot identity, condemning outgoing Ersin Tatar's tolerance of Turkey's attempts to entrench political Islam in Turkish Cypriot society.

"The Turkish Cypriot community does not accept external interference," Kizilyurek explained, adding that "the Turkish Cypriot community is the most secular Muslim community in the world, and secularism is part of its identity."

Citing the protests that erupted in April when the Tatar government, under the guidance of the Turkish embassy, moved to legitimize the wearing of headscarves in Cyprus' schools, Kizilyurek said that "Tatar was defeated because he chose to align himself with Ankara on this issue, in contrast to Tufan Erhurman, who was present at all demonstrations against the hijab."

Positive development for Greek Cypriot leadership

The new dynamics within the Turkish Cypriot community are expected to trigger developments regarding the Cyprus talks, which have been "frozen" for seven years. President of the Republic of Cyprus Nikos Christodoulides, the Greek Cypriot representative in the talks, congratulated the new Turkish Cypriot leader and said he looked forward to "a meeting with Mr Erhurman as soon as possible and to the start of substantive negotiations from the point where they were suspended."

Christodoulides designated the upcoming informal exploratory meeting announced by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for next month as a critical opportunity to relaunch the process. The leaders of the two major parties in the Republic of Cyprus, Annita Demetriou and Stefanos Stefanou, also described Erhurman's election as a development that could open the way for the resumption of talks. Both the head of the Greek Cypriot right and the general secretary of the Greek Cypriot left said Turkish Cypriots had rejected the two-state solution and supported a federation, expressing hope for renewed negotiations.

Speaking to DW, former foreign minister of the Republic of Cyprus, Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis, noted that Erhurman's election alone cannot solve the Cyprus issue.

"Undoubtedly, it is a seismic change in the stance of the Turkish Cypriot side, which over the past five years remained rigid in the dead-end pursuit of a two-state solution," she said. "Now, we must see how Turkey can be persuaded to change its position, and under what conditions. It will also depend greatly on the stance of the Greek Cypriot side, and whether what has been declared regarding the continuation of negotiations from the point they stopped will be translated into action."

Awaiting Ankara's response

For now, Erdogan's stance following Erhurman's victory remains unclear. In his first statement after the results were announced, Erdogan avoided referring to the Cyprus issue, merely praising the "democratic maturity of the Turkish Cypriots" and expressing hope that "these elections will be beneficial for both Turkey and the TRNC."

Less restrained was the reaction of Devlet Bahceli, a partner in Turkey's governing coalition, who called on the "TRNC” parliament ― dominated by the nationalist right ― "to convene urgently, declare the return to a federal solution unacceptable, and decide to join the Republic of Turkey." 

Such a development is not anticipated. Instead, the likelihood of early elections for a new parliament appears higher.

Edited by: Carla Bleiker