Czech President and former Chief of the General Staff of the Czech Armed Forces Petr Pavel is a level-headed man with strong nerves.

Yet even though he almost never gets emotional in his capacity as head of state, he has seemed for quite some time to be deeply concerned about the state of democracy in the Czech Republic.

On Tuesday evening, less than three days before the polls open in Czechia's parliamentary election, he spoke to the nation. His address was broadcast live by numerous Czech media outlets.

"I must strongly reject the words of some politicians that this year's elections are to bring about a change in the system," said the president, adding, "Our democratic system is embedded in the Constitution."

More than usual at stake

Pavel went on to say that the country needs "a government that will protect our sovereignty within the community of democratic nations and will not leave us at the mercy of Russia and its efforts to restore a sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe."

The president's address showed that there is more than usual at stake in this year's parliamentary election, which will take place on October 3 and 4.

For the past four years, the country has been ruled by a liberal-conservative coalition led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala. Although not a failure, this government was certainly not very popular, either, as it dealt above all with the major financial fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine.

Change of power in the cards?

Everything points toward a changing of the guard at government level.

The country is expected to shift toward right-wing populism and all that comes with it: euroskepticism, pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian positions, and agitation against refugees, the LGBTQ+ community and green policies.

The undisputed frontrunner going into the election is the ANO party of right-wing populist ex-premier and billionaire Andrej Babis. ANO is both an acronym for "Action of Dissatisfied Citizens" and the Czech word for "yes."

While ANO is currently polling at between 28% and 30%, the ruling liberal-conservative alliance Spolu (Together), which is made up of three center-right parties, is predicted to get between 20% and 22% of the vote.

The liberal-conservative Mayors and Independents (STAN) party, which is also part of the ruling coalition, is polling at between 10% and 12%.

Other parties that are expected to enter parliament include the green-liberal Czech Pirate Party (7%–9%), which was part of the coalition until last year, and three extremist opposition parties: the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy party (SPD, 13%–14%), the pro-Russian communist alliance Stacilo! (Enough!, 5%) and the euroskeptic right-wing nationalist Motorists for Themselves party (5%).

Widespread dissatisfaction

Together with Poland, the Czech Republic has the most successful economy in Central Europe.

Since the collapse of communism in 1989, it has not had significant periods of nationalist populist government like those in Poland, Slovakia or Hungary — not even during the four years when Andrej Babis and his ANO party were previously in government (2017–2021), when Babis was less populist in outlook than he is now.

Since then, however, shifting geopolitical tectonic plates — especially in the form of Russia's all-out war in Ukraine and the toxic influence of the Kremlin — are having a major impact on Czechia, too.

As a result of Russia's war in Ukraine, the Czech Republic was hit by an energy price shock in 2022 and 2023, and inflation of up to 15%. Despite support from the state, this hit many people — particularly pensioners — very hard.

The economic situation began to settle down in late 2024, with inflation dropping considerably, the economy growing moderately, and real wages rising. Nevertheless, dissatisfaction with Fiala's government is high and widespread.

Pro-Russian, anti-Ukrainian narratives

The pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian propaganda of opposition politicians, including ANO leader Andrej Babis, has also contributed to this mood.

The Czech Republic is one of Ukraine's staunchest supporters, and Petr Fiala was one of the first foreign heads of government to travel to Kyiv in March 2022.

In terms of the size of its population (approx. 10.9 million), Czechia took in a record number of Ukrainian refugees (approx. 660,000). It is estimated that 400,000 still live in the country.

Andrej Babis and other right-wing populists and extremists have turned this into a narrative that the Fiala government cares more about Ukraine and Ukrainians than about Czechs.

Babis has accused Fiala of "dreaming of a war with Russia." He has called for a halt to military support for Ukraine, restrictions on aid for refugees, and "reasonable" relations with Russia.

'A government of national betrayal'

In view of all this, the government parties have turned Czech foreign policy and relations with Russia into the decisive issues in this campaign.

Prime Minister Fiala recently said that if Andrej Babis is elected, Czechia would get a "government of national betrayal."

Some observers see the threat as real: "One of Putin's dreams could soon be realized," wrote Petr Honzejk of the Czech national daily newspaper Hospodarske noviny. "Should ANO come to power — whether on its own or in cooperation with the SPD, Stacilo! or the Motorists — our country will stop its defense against Russian disinformation and hybrid attacks."

Other observers accuse the premier of focusing too much on "scaremongering," or not enough on domestic and economic issues.

Writing in the same newspaper, columnist Jan Kubita suggested that government politicians should have studied the works of the most recent Nobel Prize winners. "Then perhaps they would understand that the prerequisite for the long-term growth and prosperity of a state lies in the improvement of its institutions."

And indeed, many Czechs are very unhappy about the state of public infrastructure, sluggish state institutions, bureaucracy, and excessively slow digitalization.

The president is not Czechia's 'savior'

For years, Andrej Babis has been promising to change all this and to make the state more efficient. When he was last in office, however, he did virtually none of this.

This time around, he is also promising lower taxes, energy prices and real estate prices, as well as higher pensions and more support for the needy. He has not, however, revealed how he intends to pay for all of this without increasing the national debt.

President Pavel, who plays an important role in the formation of a government, hinted a few weeks ago that he might not under certain circumstances nominate Babis for the post of prime minister.

During his address to the nation on Tuesday evening, however, he cautioned that he should not be seen as "Czechia's savior."

"The president is not, and cannot be, the last resort who will overturn the result of the election for one side, or save it for the other," he said.

Addressing voters directly, he said clearly and calmly: "You will decide."

This article was originally published in German and adapted by Aingeal Flanagan.