According to official figures, around 6 million Catholics live in China. They belong to the "Patriotic Catholic Church," which is under state supervision and does not recognize the authority of the Vatican.

However, the real number of Catholics is probably twice as high. An estimated 6 million are also loyal to the pope and worship in the so-called underground church.

This is about more than matters of faith. The Vatican is the only state in Europe that does not recognize the government in Beijing as the legitimate government of China and maintains diplomatic relations with the Republic of China on Taiwan.

The ruling Communist Party in Beijing, on the other hand, exerts significant control over religious groups in China, from funding to the appointment of clergy.

To what extent can China's Communist Party allow the Catholic Church to operate in the country if Beijing has no control over the pope or the Vatican?

China's secret arrangement with the Catholic Church

To find a way out of this complicated situation, the Vatican seeks channels of communication with China. A key point of contention is the consecration of bishops.

China has so far resisted the appointment of bishops in the country directly by the pope. In Beijing's view, it amounts to losing sovereignty and interference in internal affairs.

In 2018, China and the Vatican agreed on the appointment of bishops. The "provisional" agreement, as both sides call it, states that bishops recognized by both the Vatican and Beijing will be consecrated.

It is not a political agreement, but a pastoral one, said the pope's spokesperson at the time, Greg Burke, in 2018. The procedures involved in the provision agreement, which was extended in 2020 and 2022, have not been made public.

On August 28, the Holy See welcomed "with satisfaction" China's official recognition of Bishop Melchior Shi Hongzhen as the Bishop of Tianjin. In 2019, Shi was placed under house arrest for refusing to join the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Association.

"This measure is a positive result of the long-standing dialog between the Holy See and the Chinese government," the Vatican said.

However, this agreement is controversial within the Catholic Church itself. "I hope that the pope will stop the whole thing and reconsider it," Hong Kong Cardinal Emeritus Joseph Zen said in a DW interview in 2018.

The former British colony of Hong Kong enjoys a special status as a Chinese Special Administrative Region under an international agreement between China and Great Britain after the territory was handed over to China in 1997.

The Diocese of Hong Kong is independent of the church structure in mainland China. The cardinal in Hong Kong is appointed directly by the Vatican.

Nevertheless, the Vatican's Cardinal Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, chief diplomat of the Holy See, has repeatedly sent friendly signals to Beijing.

Parolin has said the Vatican is very optimistic that the agreement with China on bishops will be extended at the end of the year.

"It is a starting point. It has found an important implementation in concrete cases. The positive developments recorded so far give us hope that more and greater ones will follow," said Parolin, who is considered the architect of the agreement.

"If the Chinese were open, the pope would also travel to China immediately," Parolin told journalists in May at the "100 Years of the Council of Shanghai" congress at the Pontifical Urbaniana University in Rome.

"I don't have the impression that the conditions for realizing this wish of the pope have been met so far," he added.

Taiwan fears for its diplomatic ties to the Vatican

As an ally of the Vatican, Taiwan fears for the future of diplomatic relations. The self-ruled democracy is isolated on the world stage due to pressure from the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing, which has vowed to "reunite" Taiwan with the mainland.

Due to Beijing's "one-China policy," only 12 countries in the world — including the Vatican, and otherwise mostly small states in the Pacific, the Caribbean and Africa — still recognize Taiwan, which is officially called the "Republic of China."

"It is an open secret that the Vatican would betray Taiwan at some point if it wanted to establish official relations with Beijing," a diplomat in Taiwan, who does not want to reveal his name, told DW.

Beijing seems to be undecided on pursuing formal ties with the Vatican amid concerns about social instability and the creation of a parallel society should the Catholic underground church be officially recognized. 

Quo vadis between China and the Vatican?

Some Vatican insiders do not believe that the Vatican is acting "weak" towards China.

"From the outside, it may look as if the Church is compromising on fundamental issues. But that's not quite right," said Piero Schiavazzi, a Vatican expert and professor at the Italian Link University in Rome.

"The inclusion of China in the Catholic world will be of enormous importance. I think the question is 'when' rather than 'where' the next step will take place," Schiavazzi told DW.

"I believe that the decisive step will be the appointment of a bishop from the Chinese patriotic church as cardinal." 

A cardinal is allowed to participate in electing the pope.

"The Church is well aware that this entails the risk of having a man in the conclave who is also loyal to the government in Beijing. But it would not be the first time in the thousand-year history of the Church," Schiavazzi said.

Think, for example, of other cardinal electors who have been very close to monarchs and emperors in the past."

This article was translated from German.