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ConflictsIran

Degraded but still dangerous: Iran's evolving threat

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Ole Alsaker
March 23, 2026

Iran's capabilities may be damaged — but they're far from gone. We break down what this new phase of the war really means.

Iran's recent missile attacks on the southern Israeli towns of Arad and Dimona resulted in dozens of civilian casualties. This demonstrated that, even after nearly four weeks of joint US-Israeli strikes, Iran can still exploit vulnerabilities in Israel's air defense network.

The unsuccessful launch toward the UK-US airbase Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean surprised many because it exceeded previously assumed limits on Tehran's missile range, putting central Europe within reach.

Across the Gulf — and the world — anxiety is rising as the Strait of Hormuz becomes the most fragile flashpoint of all.  

Could we be entering the most dangerous phase of the Iran war?

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