Just a few days ago, Farooq Wardak, the chief organizer of the peace jirga, disclosed the details about the goals of the "people's assembly":

"When we speak of an understanding with the opponents, then it should be clarified: About what we want to talk, with whom we should talk and where and by whom," said Farooq. "The second expectation that we have from this peace jirga is to device clear mechanisms required for the realization of talks with the opponents."

Wardak, at the same time, also stressed that it was high time to launch talks for a lasting peace in Afghanistan. And for that the jirga should give a clear mandate to the Afghan government.

But on Wednesday, the close confidant of the president suddenly sounded different: The Afghan government didn't want to rush, he told a press conference, called at short notice, adding that the peace jirga would be delayed by two to three weeks.

Reasons for delay

"The first reason: as you all know, is that the president will travel to the United States on May 10," explained Farooq. "Important issues regarding Afghanistan are to be discussed there. The president wants to inform the people of Afghanistan about the results of these discussions at the peace jirga, where the representatives of the whole nation will be present."

The second reason, he said, is concerns that "some sections of the international community have expressed about the peace jirga". "These concerns will be resolved after the visit of the Afghan president to the US."

Thirdly, as Wardak put it, many Afghan MPs had asked for a postponement of the jirga because they could not have taken part. They are already focusing on registration for the parliamentary elections due in September.

Another explanation

Sanjar Sohail is a political expert and the editor of the Afghan newspaper "Hasht-e-Sobh". He doesn't believe these reasons. He says the dates for the Afghan president's trip and the registration for the parliamentary elections were long planned. In reality, there is another explanation:

"There were some concerns that some parts of the Afghan government, encouraged by the current anti-Western policy of the President, might have used the peace jirga as a platform for anti-American rhetoric and might have demanded that foreign troops leave Afghanistan," says Sohail.

Obviously, the American government could not allow this to happen, he says. The peace jirga, as Sohail puts it, has put a massive pressure on the Obama administration. Karzai has to first explain his goals in the US. Moreover, there is another concern in Washington:

"One should not forget that the peace jirga has something to do with the upcoming US offensive in Kandahar," says Sohail. "An offensive that Karzai has so far rejected because he knows that a peace jirga will not achieve much, while war is being waged in Kandahar."

The US government wants to have clarity on this issue too. Nonetheless, the peace jirga will take place, says Sohail - but with different goals and a different cast. To ensure this happens, the US government will hold intensive talks with Hamid Karzai. The Afghan president's attempts to pursue an independent policy have, he says, failed miserably. But he warns that the US is unlikely to achieve its goals if Karzai is politically weakened at home. This would not make peace more likely either.

Author: Ratbil Shamel / du

Editor: Grahame Lucas