China's CO2 emissions decreased steadily from 2014 to 2016, a new study finds. Great news, right? Well, sort of. According to the researchers, the trend could be permanent. But it's not time to celebrate yet.
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China is the world's top CO2-emitting nation: its carbon dioxide emissions have grown enormously over recent previous decades, and now make up nearly one-third of the global total.
The decline might not seem too much: 9.2 gigatons of CO2 in 2016, compared to 9.53 gigatons in 2013. But this is a hopeful sign regardless, the researchers write.
"The fact that China's emissions have decreased for several years — and more importantly the reasons why — give hope for further decreases going forward."
If the drop were just a byproduct of an economic crisis, there wouldn't be much cause for optimism: CO2 emissions would just go back up as soon as the economy flourishes again.
And indeed, economic growth in China has slowed in recent years, which has made it easier to reduce emissions.
But lead author Dabo Guan of Tsinghua University in Beijing tells DW that according to their investigation, slowed economic growth is not the main reason for the drop.
China is undergoing a structural change, with emissions-intensive factories moving out of the country, he explains.
"A few years ago, 90 percent of all running shoes, for example, were made in China. Now, the expensive ones are coming from China, while the cheaper brands are being manufactured in Vietnam, Cambodia, Mexico or other countries."
The same is true for electronic products like smartphones.
This shift to higher-value manufacturing and to the service industry has transformed China, bringing about a drop in emissions-intensive iron and steel processing, coking, cement and coal production.
"A 2013 peak is far sooner than anyone thought possible when Chinese President Xi Jinping first made the pledge in 2014," the researchers write.
Lina Li, project manager with adelphi, a think tank and public policy consultancy on climate, environment and development, agrees with Dabo Guan and his colleagues that the decline in CO2 emissions is not by accident.
"It's partially thanks to the accelerated domestic climate and energy policies in recent years, as well as the economic structural change that China is going through."
Less coal
China's energy mix is changing as well.
"Blue skies are becoming political, especially in Beijing," Dabo Guan says. "Anti-air pollution policy helped a lot to reduce carbon dioxide emissions."
Pictures of intense air pollution in Chinese cities have gone viral around the world.
China is running out of breath
China continues to fight air pollution, particularly in big cities. The country's authorities have ordered Beijing's citizens to wear respiratory protection masks. But environmentalists call for more vigorous measures.
Image: Reuters/J. Lee
Smog alarm in Beijing
Thick smog hovers over Beijing's Tiananmen Square as seen in this picture. Even the gigantic portrait of the country's founder Mao Zedong is covered by fog. Experts say that people living in the cities breathe in harmful gases.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Exceeding the limits
In Beijing alone, there are more than 5.4 million registered vehicles, whereas in Shanghai there are about 2.7 million cars. The increase in traffic over the years has been blamed for the poor air quality. According to statistics provided by Greenpeace, more than 90 of China's 190 major cities exceed the limits set by by the authorities.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Indoor training
These students perform their morning exercises in the school's hallway. The authorities recommend both young and elderly people not to train outside, as this might seriously damage their health.
Image: Reuters/Stringer
Running with gas mask
Anyone in China who wants to indulge in some physical activity must be creative. This runner wears a gas mask while jogging in the Chinese capital's Olympic Park.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Old industrial sites
The old power plants and cement factories in northern China emit pollutants that compound the problem. Seven of China's ten most polluted cities are located in Hebei province. In a trip to China in April 2014, Germany's Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier campaigned for the use of environment-friendly technologies.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Raising awareness
Chinese film director Jia Zhangke made a short film about air pollution in China in 2013. Designed to raise awareness, the movie depicts how Chinese people deal with smog on a daily basis. Jia's father died from lung cancer nine years ago in the coal-rich Shanxi province.
Image: Reuters
'I thought I was blind'
"When I woke up this morning and opened the window I thought I was blind," wrote a Chinese citizen on Weibo, the Chinese micro-blogging website, "but then I realized it was smog."
Image: Reuters
'APEC Blue'
The authorities managed to bring down pollution levels in Beijing before the APEC Summit in November 2014, as seen in this picture of the conference venue. The officials shut down construction sites and factories in the area, and traffic was artificially reduced. Many in China dubbed the summit "APEC Blue" for its environmental success.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images
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While new policies primarily target fine particulates in the air, they are also leading to a reduction in coal consumption — which brought CO2 emissions down as a side effect.
For example, the Chinese government has limited the development of new coal-fired power plants since 2013, and phased out older, smaller plants.
Coal consumption declined by an average of 5.6 percent per year from 2013 on. The largest decreases occurred in the electricity sector.
While everybody might agree that China's surge in renewable energy is a positive sign, others are doubtful if extending nuclear power is the right way to go.
"China is building about 12 new nuclear power plants," Dabo Guan says. "Coal is too dirty, and renewables are not very stable. So nuclear is seen as a strategic energy source for the future."
Even the Fukushima nuclear disaster didn't do much to dampen China's enthusiasm for nuclear power, he adds.
"Most Chinese people trust that the nuclear waste [problem can be solved] — or they simply don't care. Compared to Germany, the public perception is very different."
Even with nuclear power as a backup, the researchers argue that it's still unclear whether this slight drop in emissions will persist — or even continue dropping to levels necessary to halt climate change.
"China's emissions may fluctuate in the coming years and that may mean that 2013 may not be the final peak," they write.
New energy and climate policies might have caused a "one-time decrease in emissions that is not easily repeated."
That makes sense: If you've already closed down all the older, inefficient power plants, then it would be hard to repeat that measure next year.
According to recent news, data indicate that the decrease might indeed not be permanent at all.
"China's emissions increased again in 2017 and the first quarter of 2018," Lina Li suggests.
Other countries could take China's place
The most important climate question might be: If emission-intensive industry is moving out of China, where is it moving to?
The IPCC, the United Nations' climate science body, has forwarded the notion that if China's emissions peak, then global emissions will have reached their highest point, too — and start to drop worldwide from that moment on.
But that's a big assumption. Dabo Guan cautions that the problem could simply move to other parts of the world.
"We need to stop another emission giant from growing instead — like India, Indonesia or the African countries."
China also plays a big role in making sure this doesn't happen, Guan says, by helping other developing countries to build out their know-how and appropriate technology to tackle climate change.
Lina Li agrees.
"If China can adeptly manage to combine its future domestic reform and transition plans with a smart global climate leadership agenda, the world would become a better place — as would China itself."
Does nuclear power have a future?
On April 26, 1986, the Chernobyl disaster released radiation across Ukraine, Russia and into Europe. It was turning point for the anti-nuclear movement. Now, 31 years later, is nuclear power becoming a thing of the past?
Image: Kerry Skyring
Deadly disaster
The worst nuclear disaster of all time, the explosion at Chernobyl nuclear plant in Ukraine released massive amounts of radiation into the atmosphere. Areas close to the plant - in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia - were heavily contaminated. Heightened levels of radiation were also measured across most of Europe. The "exclusion zone" around Chernobyl remains off-limits to human habitation today.
Image: picture-alliance/ dpa
It happens again
After a magnitude-9 earthquake and consequent tsunami, three nuclear reactors at Fukushima power plant in Japan went into meltdown in March 2011. There were also four hydrogen explosions. The accident released 500 times as much radioactive cesium-137 as the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. The clean-up is expected to take decades.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Sickening impact
After Chernobyl, thousands of people developed cancer. In Japan too, the heavily contaminated region of Fukushima, where 200,000 people lost their homes, saw cases of the disease escalate. The number of children with thyroid cancer there is 20 times higher than other regions.
Image: Reuters
Rallying against nuclear power
Chernobyl fueled public opposition to nuclear power, particularly in Europe. The same happened after Fukushima. Before the Japanese disaster, the country relied on nuclear for 30 percent of its power. That has fallen to 1 percent. The government wants to continue producing nuclear power and plans to reinstall some reactors. But affected regions have successfully pushed back those plans.
Image: REUTERS
Nuclear industry in crisis
Today, the nuclear power sector is deep in economic crisis. In Japan, the United States and France, nuclear power plants run at a loss, and construction projects for new reactors have been postponed.
Image: Reuters
New-build set-backs
France had high hopes for its newest nuclear reactors - called pressurized water reactors (PWRs). This technology was supposed to be safe, and the Flamanville power plant was due to be switched on in 2012. Due to security issues, that's been pushed back to 2018 at the earliest. The project will cost more than 10 billion euros - three times the original budget.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/C. Triballeau
Great Britain plans new reactors
For years, the UK has been planning to build two new PWR reactors at Hinkley Point. Costs are estimated at 33 billion euros and groundbreaking is slated for 2019. But doubts are growing over its economic viability. The electricity it produces will be much pricier than solar or wind power, and will need subsidies to compete in the market.
Image: Getty Images/J. Tallis
Aging reactors up for grabs
Nuclear power plants used to be lucrative. But now, many are old and frail. Repair costs often mean they cannot turn a profit. Swiss energy corporation Alpiq recently tried to give away two of its old plants, 33 and 38 years old, to French energy company EDF - which declined the offer.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/P. Seeger
Disasters abroad prompt German phase-out
Three decades ago, the Chernobyl disaster galvanized Germany's anti-nuclear movement, which is often cited as the roots of the country's energy transition. In 2002, Germany passed a law that would have seen the last reactor shut down in 2022. The plan was later scrapped by Angela Merkel's government. But after Fukushima, Merkel quickly reversed her decision and the phase-out was back on track.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/D. Ebener
Switching them off
So far, nine of Germany's reactors have gone offline, with eight more to follow by 2022. To finance the costs of nuclear waste disposal, plant operators must pay 23.6 billion euros into a federal fund. The operators themselves are responsible for the similarly costly process of dismantling the plants, which will take decades to complete.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/D. Ebener
Growing fear of accidents
Across the EU and Switzerland 132 nuclear reactors are still online. They were designed to operate for 30 to 35 years - their average age is now 32 years. Malfunctions and security issues are frequently detected and protestors are increasingly calling for plants to be shut down.
Image: DW/G. Rueter
China pushes on with nuclear
No new nuclear power plants have been built in the EU, Japan or Russia since the Fukushima disaster in 2011. China remains committed to nuclear, partly to replace coal-based power. But the country is also upping investment in wind and solar.