Beginning July 17, a lottery could determine who in Latvia will be drafted into the army. As of this year, conscription is once again compulsory in the Baltic country. If not enough volunteers sign up for the 11-month service, the army will draft young men.

Neighboring Lithuania reintroduced compulsory military service in 2015, Sweden in 2017, and countries such as Germany and the UK are currently discussing whether they should do so as well.

"The promise of conscription is really powerful," says Sophia Besch of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC. "It seems to offer a path to building up military reserve, which is what you need in the case of war." Many European armies, including Germany's, are currently struggling to recruit enough soldiers.

Conscription, which originated with the civilian armies of the French Revolution, seemed unnecessary in Europe after the end of the Cold War. With the Russian attack on Ukraine, things have now changed. European countries fear a direct conflict with Russia, Besch told DW. And they want to be prepared for it.

Ready for war

For a long time, the argument has been "that we need more technology, more highly equipped, fewer, professional forces," said Besch.  "I think we need both. We need highly equipped forces. We need the technology on the battlefield, and we need more troops. And that is exactly what the war on Ukraine is showing us."

The Russian war against Ukraine has turned out to be a war of attrition. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers have already been killed. And Russia is still sending new recruits to the front, some of them with virtually no training. This shows that even with the use of drones and supersonic missiles, there is still a high demand for soldiers in modern warfare.

"If you think about modern warfare, you need to have high-tech weaponry and you also need to have soldiers who are capable of operating them," Bove told DW. He believes that conscription involving less than one year of training is simply insufficient. "So they talk about 3 months, six months, maybe nine months, which in my view does not provide the foundational skills and knowledge that is sufficient for combat units within the armed forces," said Bove, who learned how to fight submarines firsthand as an officer in the Italian Navy.

And he says there is yet another problem more serious than lack of training and experience. "If you're forcing young people to serve in the armed forces against their will, there is obviously an issue about the absence of motivation, which compounds the lack of training and experience," said Bove.

Only highly motivated soldiers are prepared to put their lives on the line. And that can be decisive in winning a war. "I can't see how you can really make sure that people will ultimately employ weapons and fight on the battlefield and be successful." Bove cited the large number of casualties among those conscripted into the Russian army. He also pointed to surveys showing that many young people wouldn't be willing to defend their country with weapons even if attacked.

The costs for politics and business

According to a recent study, reintroducing conscription could cost Germany up to €70 billion ($76 billion) a year. After all, it's not just military instructors, barracks, and uniforms that are expensive. It weakens the economy when young people serve in the army instead of working.

"Obviously there is a high cost when you think about conscription," said Bove. In addition to the economic costs, there are also political costs. "Those people who were forced to serve, then years later they display a lower level of trust towards institutions." Bove and his colleagues have analyzed this in a scientific study. He fears that universal conscription could weaken democracy in Europe in the long run.

Bove praises the Swedish model, which is based on voluntary service. Under this model, only those who are highly motivated are invited to take part in the draft. The army can use numerous tests to select those who seem best suited to serve in the armed forces. In this way, the number of recruits is lower, but over time the army can draw on a very large reserve of qualified soldiers.

'Foster the willingness to serve'

Sophia Besch from the Carnegie Foundation also shares the concern that compulsory military service could boost the popularity of extremist parties in Europe. "If politicians were to pursue conscription against domestic resistance, then they risk creating single-issue voters. I think particularly among those populations directly affected by military service, so the young and also their parents."

She says that countries thinking about introducing compulsory military service should look to Finland. "I would name them as the gold standard because they have a long tradition of conscription of military service." Finland only joined NATO in 2023 — so until only recently it was on its own militarily. "They've had to build up a really strong national reserve and they've done that through conscription," explained Besch.

In Finland, there is a high level of motivation among the population to do military service and join the reserve afterward. According to Besch, this is crucial. "You have to foster that willingness to serve and that sense of purpose that you have something that is worth fighting for first." She says you can't simply ask young people to fight and possibly die for their country. "You can't impose that top down."

This suggests that before conscription is reinstated in European countries such as Germany, there will likely be long debates.

This article was originally written in German.