China's need for official secrecy and the Trump administration's need for a coronavirus scapegoat, are combining to lend credibility to conspiracy theories. Could science become a victim of the politics of the pandemic?
Image: Getty Images/AFP/J. MacDougall
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As world leaders and experts emphasize global cooperation in beating back the COVID-19 pandemic, there is growing concern that the two countries with the greatest resources are stuck in a propaganda-fueled dispute over the virus' origin that threatens to distort science-based investigation.
China has been trying to demonstrate the prowess of its governance in beating the virus and marshalling a sturdy recovery. The US is taking every opportunity to remind the world that China is responsible for the entire mess, while deflecting attention from the deficits in its own response.Subscribe to Corona Compact — DW's newsletter tracking coronavirus in Asia
Their latest row is over US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's statement last Sunday asserting that there is "enormous evidence" that SARS-CoV-2 escaped from a poorly regulated bio-lab in Wuhan, the city in central China where the first cases of COVID-19 were detected.
Beijing called the assertion "insane" and the World Health Organization said it was "speculative." Intelligence agencies around the world, including in the US, have not reached any conclusions about the virus' origin. US President Donald Trump has promised a "conclusive" report pointing to China.
"Pompeo is a known China hawk, and not a particularly credible one. But he is the US secretary of state — even if people don't necessarily believe what he's saying, they need to take it seriously," said Jeffery Wright, an analyst at the US-based political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.
Wuhan goes viral
The preliminary scientific consensus is that SARS-CoV-2 formed naturally in an animal and was able to jump into humans. How this happened is under investigation.
As the lab was cooperating with two US-based research organizations, the diplomats recommended that the US government pay more attention to the lab's "important and dangerous" work studying coronaviruses in bats and provide more assistance to address the safety concerns.
According to the Post's reporting, the US government provided no extra assistance in response. However, after the COVID-19 pandemic began, the 2018 cables drew attention in Washington — as evidence that Chinese officials and scientists were to blame for the outbreak.
China's lack of transparency
China's early response to coronavirus has been widely criticized across the world. Authorities in Hubei province initially tried to cover up the outbreak in Wuhan and allowed millions of people to continue to travel. The delayed containment and mitigation measures potentially spread the pathogen further.
To its credit, China managed to contain COVID-19 in a few weeks, albeit by putting in place draconian restrictions on people's movement and systematic quarantine regimes in cities like Wuhan.
Beijing's propaganda apparatus has been busy touting its success story and downplaying what in January looked like a disaster for China's carefully curated global image.
But the Chinese government's demonstrated lack of transparency also drives a global narrative that Beijing is hiding something. This can provide fertile ground for conspiracy theories, which complicate rational analysis of where the disease came from and how it can be stopped.
"Unfortunately, we are experiencing a situation where the question of COVID-19's origin, and the various strategies in fighting the pandemic, have become the subject of a propaganda war between the American and Chinese governments," German sinologist Felix Wemheuer told DW.
The lab in question at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) drew international attention in April after the Washington Post obtained leaked cables from 2018 sent by US embassy officials in China warning of 'safety and management weaknesses'Image: Getty Images/AFP/H. Retamal
Deflecting blame and failed diplomacy
And as the Trump administration's response also draws widespread criticism, officials in Washington have been all too eager to point out where the virus came from.
"China could have spared the world a descent into global economic malaise. They had a choice but instead — China covered up the outbreak in Wuhan," Pompeo said this week. "China is still refusing to share the information we need to keep people safe."
However, despite China's initial cover-up, the world was aware that COVID-19 was a severe threat before the full brunt of the disease reached the US. The dithering response by the Trump administration included weeks of denials and mixed messaging.
When it was clear in March that COVID-19 was spreading rapidly around the country, disjointed federal action left states to fend for themselves. The US is now the world leader in the total number of cases and deaths, although it fares better than European countries like Italy, Spain and the UK when it comes to case fatality rates.
"The political opportunity for the Republicans is that blaming the virus on China gives them a chance to deflect blame for Trump's poor response to the crisis," said analyst Wright. "It also gives Trump a useful enemy — his politics depend on conflict, and the virus was not a very good enemy, because it's faceless and can't be effectively attacked."
After some US states in April called for China to pay reparations for the impacts of the pandemic, Klaus Mühlhahn, a sinologist at the Free University in Berlin, told DW that it was a sign of escalation and failed diplomacy.
"Even during the Cold War, when there were serious illnesses, the East and the West worked and conducted research together."
'Science needs to be at the center'
As the pandemic gets wrapped up in politics, there is concern that investigation into the origin of SARS-CoV-2 will be skewed away from science, as the US pours resources into probing the Wuhan lab for a smoking gun that will cement claims of Chinese culpability.
"Analysts are now clearly under political pressure to ascribe to the lab theory," said Wright.
The WHO's emergencies chief, Michael Ryan, recently warned against politicizing the scientific investigation into the origin of SARS-CoV-2. "We can learn from Chinese scientists, we can learn from each other, we can exchange knowledge and we can find the answers together," said Ryan, adding that scientists should be at the center of exploring where the virus came from.
"If this is projected as aggressive investigation of wrongdoing, then I believe that's much more difficult to deal with. That's a political issue, not a science issue," said Ryan.
"Science needs to be at the center. Science will find the answers," he added. "The implications of those answers can be dealt with from a policy and political perspective."
And as political tension increases, international scientific cooperation on understanding how viruses like SARS-CoV-2 originate and proliferate also comes under pressure.
For example, in late April, the US National Institutes of Health cut funding for a project studying how coronaviruses transfer from bats to humans, because the project's sponsor allegedly used funding to cooperate with scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
In January, China also temporarily closed a lab in Shanghai that first discovered the genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2 after one of its scientists shared the information with colleagues around the world online. Beijing claimed the lab was closed for "rectification."
"The new 'Cold War' is coming at an extremely unfavorable time. If the international community does not find a common answer to the global challenge of this and the next pandemic, the future looks bleak," said sinologist Wemheuer.
Additional reporting by Hans Spross and Cui Mui.
Coronavirus: Timeline of the global spread of COVID-19
Since the first cases were confirmed in December 2019, the flu-like COVID-19 virus exploded into a global pandemic, killing tens of thousands of people and infecting around 800,000. Scientists scramble for a vaccine.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/SOPA Images/A. Marzo
Pneumonia-like virus hits Wuhan
On December 31, 2019, China notifies the World Health Organization of a string of respiratory infections in the city of Wuhan, home to some 11 million people. The root virus is unknown and disease experts around the world begin working to identify it. The strain is traced to a seafood market in the city, which is quickly shut down. Some 40 people are initially reported to be infected.
Image: Imago Images/UPI Photo/S. Shaver
First death in China
On January 11, China announces the first death from the coronavirus — a 61-year-old man, who had shopped at the Wuhan market, dies from complications with pneumonia. Like SARS and the common cold, scientists identified that the new virus is in the coronavirus family. It is temporarily named 2019-nCoV. Symptoms include fever, coughing, difficulty breathing, and pneumonia.
Image: Reuters/Str
Virus reaches neighboring countries
In the following days, countries such as Thailand and Japan begin to report cases of infections in people who had visited the same Wuhan market. In China, a second fatality is confirmed in the city. By January 20, three people have died in China and more than 200 are infected.
Image: Reuters/Kim Kyung-Hoon
Millions under lockdown
China places Wuhan on quarantine on January 23 in an attempt to limit the spread of the virus. Transportation is suspended and workers attempt to quickly build a new hospital to treat infected patients, which total over 830 by January 24, as the death toll climbs to 26. Officials eventually extend the lockdown to 13 other cities, affecting at least 36 million people.
Image: AFP/STR
A global health emergency?
More and more cases are confirmed outside of China, including in South Korea, the US, Nepal, Thailand, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan. As the number of infections rises, the World Health Organization on January 23 determines that it's "too early" to declare a global public health emergency.
Image: Getty Images/X. Chu
Coronavirus reaches Europe
On January 24, French authorities confirm three cases of the new coronavirus within its borders, marking the disease's first appearance in Europe. Hours later, Australia confirms four people have been infected with the respiratory virus.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/S. Mortagne
First cases confirmed in Germany
On January 27, Germany announces its first known case of the virus — a 33-year-old in Bavaria who contracted it during a workplace training with a visiting Chinese colleague. He is put under quarantine and observation at a Munich hospital. The following day, three of his colleagues are confirmed infected. The death toll in China reaches 132, with around 6,000 infected worldwide.
Image: Reuters/A. Uyanik
WHO declares global health emergency
On January 30, the UN's World Health Organization (WHO) declares coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern in a bid to protect countries with "weaker health systems." However, WHO Secretary-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus does not recommend trade and travel restrictions, saying these would be "an unnecessary disruption."
Image: picture-alliance/KEYSTONE/J.-C. Bott
First death outside China
The first death linked to the novel coronavirus outside of China is reported in the Philippines on February 2. A 44-year-old Chinese man had traveled from Wuhan to Manila before falling ill and being taken to hospital, where he later died of pneumonia.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/T. Aljibe
Bad ending to a cruise
Also on February 3, the cruise ship Diamond Princess is quarantined off Yokohama in Japan after cases of the new coronavirus were found on board. As of February 17, the number of people infected has grown to more than 450, the largest cluster of cases outside of China. Several of the 3,700 passengers and crew onboard the ship are being or have been flown back to their home countries.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/kyodo
Italy under quarantine
Cases in Italy rise dramatically, with 77 deaths and thousands of confirmed cases by March 3. Many countries instigate travel restrictions to northern Italy and tourist numbers plummet. On March 8, the Italian government put the entire Lombardy region into quarantine, affecting 16 million people. March 10 sees 168 fatalities in Italy, the highest in a single day.
Image: Reuters/R. Casilli
Economic woes
European and US stock markets slump on March 6, leading to the worst week since the 2008 financial crisis. The effect on global business has been significant, with many companies reporting losses and the tourism industry and airlines badly hit. The EU pledge €7.5 billion ($8.4 billion) on March 10 in an investment fund to try to stop the Eurozone falling into a recession.
Image: picture-alliance/Jiji Press/M. Taguchi
WHO declares outbreak as pandemic
As worldwide cases top 127,000 and deaths pass 4,700, the World Health Organization designates the global outbreak as a "pandemic" on March 11. US President Donald Trump announces a travel restriction on people coming from the Schengen Zone in Europe, annoying the EU. German Chancellor Angela Merkel announces that in Germany, 70% of the population could get the virus.
Image: picture-alliance/Photoshot
Public life on hold in Europe
On March 14, Spain joins Italy in imposing a near-total nationwide lockdown to prevent the virus spreading. The population of 46 million is told not to leave their homes unless for essential tasks. In France, cafés, restaurants and non-essential shops are closed as of March 15. Many public events in Germany are cancelled and schools close.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AAB. Akbulut
International travel severely restricted
As of March 15, many countries impose strict travel bans or restrictions in an attempt to stop the spread of Covid-19. For example, New Zealand and Australia require all international passengers to self-isolate for 14 days after arrival in the country. The US extends a European travel ban to include the United Kingdom and Ireland.
Image: picture-alliance/Photoshot
Germany imposes partial lockdown
In a landmark televised address German Chancellor Angela Merkel announces far-reaching restrictions on everyday life on March 22, banning meetings between more than two people not from the same household outside of the workplace. The country has a surprisingly low death rate, a phenomenon attributed to a high level of testing, and a high number of intensive care beds.
Image: picture-alliance/EibnerT. Hahn
Virus strikes at top as UK locks down
On March 23rd Britain becomes the latest country to impose restrictions on personal freedoms, with people only allowed to leave their homes in a limited number of circumstances. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is diagnosed with the viruson March 27, as well as heir to the throne Prince Charles on March 25. Meanwhile, there are complaints that not everyone is taking social distancing seriously.
Image: picture-alliance/R. Pinney
Grim milestone for the US
On March 27 the US overtakes China in terms of the number of people infected, making it the country with the most cases of COVID-19. This came as President Donald Trump claimed that the nation would get back to work "pretty quickly." At the same time, it emerged that more than 3 million Americans had lost their jobs due to the pandemic. New York is worst-hit, with a hospital ship sent to help out.
Image: picture-alliance/Photoshot/J. Fischer
Spain's surging death toll
Spain also overtakes China in the number of COVID-19 cases on March 30, as the government toughens the severity of its lockdown. All non-essential activities are halted. Only Italy has a higher death toll than Spain. Most affected is the capital, Madrid. With funeral services overwhelmed, officials turn the Palacio de Hielo ice skating rink into a temporary morgue.
Image: picture-alliance/Geisler-Fotopress
More than a million
On April 2nd the Johns Hopkins University announced on Thursday that there were more than a million confirmed coronavirus cases around the world. The US is the most affected with three times the number than China, where the virus emerged in December. Over 50.000 people have died — and the outlook remains grim.
Image: Reuters/J. Redmond
UK PM Boris Johnson hospitalized
The 55-year-old was admitted to the intensive care unit at London's St Thomas hospital on Monday evening (6.4.) and was given oxygen treatment after his condition worsened. He had been diagnosed with COVID-19 on March 27.