Even if the Paris agreement is successfully implemented, the planet could still heat up by 5 degrees Celsius, scientists warn. This "hothouse" climate would make parts of the world uninhabitable.
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A joint study by international climate scientists from Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Australia presents a bleak prognosis: Even if the goals of the Paris climate agreement are achieved and global warming is limited to maxiumum 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial levels, the climate system could still pass a devastating tipping point.
"Human emissions of greenhouse gas are not the sole determinant of temperature on Earth," said Will Steffen, lead author of the study and climate researcher at the Australian National University and the Swedish research institute Stockholm Resilience Centre.
"Our study suggests that human-induced global warming of 2 degrees Celsius may trigger other Earth system processes, often called 'feedbacks,' that can drive further warming — even if we stop emitting greenhouse gases," he said.
The global average temperature in such a case would in the long term settle between 4 to 5 degrees warmer compared to pre-industrial levels, their study found.
Sea levels would rise 10 to 60 meters (33 to 197 feet), flooding numerous islands and coastal cities such as Venice, New York, Tokyo and Sydney. Such major population centers would have to be abandoned.
Scientists call this a "hothouse Earth" climate scenario.
Many regions of Europe and Asia are still sweltering amid an unusually prolonged period of extremely high temperatures. DW takes a look at some places where the heat is sizzling, and how people are coping with it.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/P. de Melo Moreira
Portugal: Sitting is good ...
This man in the Portuguese capital, Lisbon, seems to be enjoying the feeling of sun on his face. And Portugal has been having plenty of it, as the Iberian Peninsula bakes in warmth coming over from North Africa. The country has already had near-record temperatures this year, but nothing yet to break the 47.3° C (117.1° F) recorded in 2003 in Amareleja. Still, large parts are on red alert.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/P. de Melo Moreira
... but being near water is better
Fountains, like this one in Rossio Square in Lisbon, provide welcome relief from the heat. Portugal is not just experiencing a heat wave, but also clouds of dust coming from the Sahara Desert that are tingeing the sky dark yellow in some places.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/P. de Melo Moreira
Spain: Also taking the brunt
In neighboring Spain, the mercury is also soaring and heat warnings have been issued. Three people are reported to have died from heat-related causes in the past week. Authorities are warning people to shelter from the sun and drink plenty of fluids, advice heeded by this man in Madrid.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Seco
Germany: Low rainfall and burning sun
Despite its northerly location in Europe, much of Germany has been experiencing an unusually long run of high temperatures, accompanied by much less rainfall than usual. Farmers have requested financial aid from the government to help them cope with greatly reduced harvests.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/T. Schwarz
A desert landscape?
The heat in Germany has caused the waters in the Rhine River to drop dramatically leaving parts of the riverbed dry, as seen here in Düsseldorf. Freight vessels are being forced to reduce their cargoes if they want to continue sailing on the river.
Image: Reuters/W. Rattay
Austria: Paw protection
In the Austrian capital, Vienna, asphalt in the city has become too hot for police dogs' paws, so the force has come up with the logical response: specially made dog shoes. The working dog shown here, Spike, seems as alert as ever and completely unfazed by his new item of uniform.
Image: picture-alliance/Keystone
Sweden: Taking advantage
Sweden has had its hottest July of the past 260 years. The high temperatures have led to a high fire danger, and wildfires in the country have extended even into the Arctic Circle. But these city dwellers in central Stockholm seem intent on seeing the bright side of the hot weather as they laze at the Tantolunden bathing place.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/C. Olsson
Britain: Brown and yellow everywhere
In Britain, the unusually long summer has taken its toll on lawns and plants across the country. Fire authorities have warned that parks and other grasslands are like a tinderbox after a July that was the country's third-warmest month in more than a century. Greenwich Park in London, seen here, seems to be no exception.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/D. Leal-Olivas
Looking cool
But relief can been found even in central London, as seen here in a fountain at Trafalgar Square. Retailers are also suffering, groaning not just about the heat but also over decreased sales: Accountancy firm BDO said figures were down 1.1 percent in July. "The scorching conditions did not encourage physical shopping and only hindered footfall in shops," BDO's Sophie Michael said.
North Korea has called for an "all-out battle" against record temperatures, with crops damaged amid the prolonged heat wave. Poor harvests could hit hard in a country that is already struggling under international sanctions over its nuclear arms program. North Korea also lacks irrigation systems and other infrastructure to cope with drought.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Jones
The simple fan: A boon for all
These men in Pyongyang transporting an electric fan have obviously adopted one of the cheapest, yet most effective, ways of countering heat: the humble electric fan. They seem not to believe a widespread South Korean myth: that fans can cause death if left on while someone is asleep. The fact is, of course, that people are much more likely to die from the heat without one running.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/E. Jones
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Climate domino effect
In the study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), the international research team analyzed the complete climate system of a 2-degree warmer world across several models.
Interactions and chain reactions among melting glaciers, thawing permafrost, bacteria in the oceans and weakened carbon sinks were discovered.
As a result of these feedback processes and tipping points that lead to abrupt changes in the climate system, forests and permafrost transform themselves from "friends" that store CO2 and other greenhouse gases like methane into "enemies" that uncontrollably release stored emissions into the atmosphere.
As such, the individual feedback processes could potentially snowball, explained Johan Rockström, executive director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre and incoming co-director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
"These tipping elements can potentially act like a row of dominos. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth toward another. It may be very difficult or impossible to stop the whole row of dominoes from tumbling over," he said.
The Earth would then warm at an accelerating tempo — even if humans stopped producing greenhouse gases entirely.
"Places on Earth will become uninhabitable if 'hothouse Earth' becomes the reality," Rockström added.
While the 2015 Paris Agreement, agreed to by 197 nations, settled on a 2-degree target, it is unclear whether this is enough to avert a climate catastrophe, warned Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of PIK and co-author of the study.
"We still do not know if the climate system can be safely 'parked' at 2 degrees," he said.
That is in no way to say that the Paris climate agreement is futile and should be abandoned — as United States President Donald Trump did in June 2017 when he pulled the world's second-largest greenhouse gas emitter out of the deal.
"Fully implementing the Paris climate agreement by following a path of rapid decarbonization through socio-economic transformation minimizes the risk of triggering self-amplifying climate change," Jonathan Donges, a PIK researcher and co-author of the study, told DW.
He said that meeting the Paris goals — or even better, aiming for a more ambitious target — remains "the best-known strategy to minimize the risk of triggering self-reinforcing feedbacks in the Earth system that could lead to a hothouse climate state."
To avoid a potential chain reaction, much more needs to be done than just reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the researchers point out.
Humanity must protect the ecosystem as a whole; create more natural carbon sinks; stop deforestation; consume less; control population growth; invest in technologies that extract CO2 from the atmosphere; and much more. For Donges, such "stewardship" of the Earth will also require "transformed social values."
Despite the study's apocalyptic findings, co-author Katherine Richardson of the University of Copenhagen said they are not trying to present a hopeless doomsday scenario.
"I think our study has an incredible positive message," she told DW, adding that real action on climate change requires increased awareness of its potential effects.
"What we are really doing is understanding ever better our role in the Earth's system, and acting accordingly," Richardson added. "We would be screwed if we didn't recognize the fact that we are just not doing enough."
2017: Devastating effects of climate change
The world is increasingly taking action to stop climate change. But the frequency of devastating climate events in 2017 has shown that we are starting to run out of time. DW takes at look at some of the most dramatic.
Image: Reuters/E. De Castro
Sweltering heat
Unprecedented heat waves swept across the globe in 2017, leading to droughts, wildfires and even deaths. Australia started the year with temperatures near 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit), the "Lucifer" heat wave brought the mercury above 40 degrees Celsius throughout Southern Europe in July and August and scorching heat hit India's most vulnerable people. Get ready for next summer...
Image: Imago/Agencia EFE
Disappearing wonder
Earlier this year, scientists realized that coral bleaching in Australia's Great Barrier Reef was worse than first thought. In some parts of the UNESCO World Heritage site, up to 70 percent of the coral has already been killed. By 2050, scientists have warned 90 percent of the reef could disappear. Rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification are the main culprits.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
Deadly combination
Armed conflicts are pushing millions of people to leave their homes or live in terribly precarious situations — and climate change is making it worse. A lack of natural resources increases the risk of conflict and makes life even harder for refugees. South Sudanese families, for instance, are escaping to neighboring countries like Uganda and Kenya — countries already suffering from drought.
Image: Reuters/G.Tomasevic
World on fire
From New Zealand to Spain, from California to even Greenland: the world has seen a nonstop year of wildfires. Global warming has been blamed for the increased fire risk, and in some countries that risk has turned into reality. Wildfires engulfed large areas of Europe's Iberian Peninsula, causing death and destruction, while firefighters in California have had no rest for more than six months.
Image: Reuters/G. Blevins
Record-shattering storms
Hurricanes Maria and Irma, which hit the Caribbean region in August and September, were two of the year's most damaging weather events. The list of deadly storms also included Ophelia in Ireland, Harvey and Nate in Central America and the US, and Xavier and Sebastian in Germany. Warming of the ocean surface has led to more evaporation, and that water may help fuel thunderstorms and hurricanes.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/Str
Melting Antarctica
In July, one of the largest icebergs ever recorded separated from the Larsen C ice shelf — one of Antarctica's biggest — reducing its area by more than 12 percent. While calving icebergs in the Antarctic are part of a natural cycle, scientists have linked the retreat of several Antarctic ice shelves to global warming and are closely monitoring potential long-term effects.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/NASA/J. Sonntag
Struggle to breathe
Deteriorating air quality causes thousands of deaths around the world every year. India's capital, New Delhi, is one of the world's most polluted cities. In November, large parts of northern India and Pakistan were engulfed by a blanket of thick smog carrying harmful particulate matter. Schools were forced to close, and hospitals were full of people with respiratory problems.
Image: Reuters/S. Khandelwal
Oceans at risk
The high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere represent a major threat for our oceans, already in danger due to plastic pollution, overfishing and warming waters. Ocean acidification could make these waters — covering more than two-thirds of our planet's surface — a hostile environment for sea creatures. And without marine animals, entire ocean ecosystems are at risk.
Image: picture-alliance/Photoshot/B. Coleman
Fierce floods and mudslides
Superstorms often trigger flash floods and mudslides. In late December, more than 230 people were killed when a storm hit the Philippines' second-largest island of Mindanao, a tragedy exacerbated by years of deforestation. In 2017, severe floods also hit countries such as Vietnam, Peru and Sierra Leone. European countries, including Greece and Germany, also felt the damaging effects of heavy rain.