1. Skip to content
  2. Skip to main menu
  3. Skip to more DW sites

Donald Trump: Chaos strategy with historical precedents

Andreas Noll
February 12, 2025

US President Donald Trump's flood of initiatives, decrees and pithy remarks have kept the world on tenterhooks ever since his return to the White House. Is he following a plan?

US President Donald Trump is seen in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC
US President Donald Trump is even more powerful during his second term in officeImage: Al Drago/ abaca/picture alliance

Donald Trump wants to radically change the US and shows little consideration for his political opponents in the attempt.

Since starting his second term as president, he has initiated a spate of measures ranging from drastic changes in immigration policy to the dismantling of the administrative apparatus, which he dismisses as the "deep state."

His approach, however, has historical precedents, says Thomas Greven, a political scientist with the Kennedy Institute at FU Berlin.

Greven points to former US President Franklin D. Roosevelt, a Democrat, who designed his 1933 New Deal program to help overcome the consequences of the Great Depression. Shortly after taking office in March 1933, Roosevelt passed a flood of new laws that transformed the US federal government into a key player in driving economic recovery. This marked a radical break with his predecessors.

According to Greven, "with the New Deal, Roosevelt was saying that the US needs an active federal government, that the state must actively intervene in such recessions and crises. However, Roosevelt initially faced fierce pushback from the judiciary, the Supreme Court."

More or less power for Washington?

Roosevelt's emergency program was intended to make a quick impact during the global economic crisis. For this reason, the president did not go through the lengthy legislative processes, instead using presidential decrees (executive orders) to implement key elements of his reforms. Immediately after taking office, for example, Roosevelt ordered the temporary closure of all banks.

In just 100 days, Roosevelt pushed 15 key pieces of legislation through Congress, including social welfare programs, banking reforms and job creation measures. This laid the foundation for the 100-day benchmark by which politicians around the world are still judged today.

Trump is also pushing for radical change in his first 100 days by making use of executive orders. Yet while Roosevelt strengthened the US state, Trump aims to weaken it.

The US found itself in a deep economic crisis in the 1930sImage: Heritage Images/picture alliance

Time pressure

Roosevelt initially had to push through his reforms facing stiff resistance from the Supreme Court. The judges declared several measures unconstitutional but later relented.

Trump's opponents are also attempting to take legal action against several of his decrees. However, Trump is pursuing an even more ambitious goal. While Roosevelt established the federal government as an active economic player, Trump is attempting to radically restructure the executive branch with the president practically as the sole controlling authority. In doing so, he is breaking with the Republican Party's line.

Unlike Roosevelt, however, Trump does not have to fight a hostile constitutional court, as in his previous term he installed enough conservative judges who tend to support his agenda.

Time is a decisive factor for President Trump, too. Greven believes that Trump has just under two years left for enacting fundamental reforms. "If the democratic institutions are still functioning in 2026, or 2028, in particular if elections can still be held freely and fairly, there will probably be a correction, or at least there could be a correction if the population says: This is actually going too far for us."

Is Trump following a plan?

For the time being, however, Trump can rely on the support of the electorate. He is benefiting from a "diffuse democracy fatigue" that is prevalent not only in the US, says Greven. According to him, there is widespread frustration that an elected government is often held back by various constitutional, social and legal mechanisms.

"We are seeing a growing willingness for citizens to embrace a form of democracy that I would describe as hyper-majoritarian," says Greven. "Trump wants to remove institutional hurdles for government action, the checks and balances."

One could call this a "reactionary revolution" says Greven, leading to a fundamental restructuring of the state with the aim of weakening democratic control mechanisms and establishing authoritarian structures. "The only question is how far it will go."

Overwhelming the opposition

To achieve this goal, Trump is using some methods that were totally foreign to his predecessors. One of these — labeled "Flooding the Zone with Shit" by Trump's former chief adviser Steve Bannon — entails intentionally overwhelming the public, media and political opponents with actions, statements and scandals.

Former White House chief strategist Steve Bannon (left) suggested overwhelming the political oppositionImage: Evan Vucci/AP/picture alliance

The Democrats have adjusted their strategy accordingly and reduced their political resistance. "I think the Democrats have made a very conscious decision not to react to every provocation Trump makes, because that would be too taxing," Greven says. "They are more likely to use the courts, also hoping that there will be a shift in power with the 2026 mid-term elections."

Anticipated legal backlash

Trump's pithy remarks, constant threats and numerous announcements may sometimes seem uncoordinated to outsiders. Yet Sascha Lohmann, a US analyst at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, believes that Trump is following a rough roadmap.

"Trump is taking a very maximalist approach to executive orders," Lohmann told DW. "He is trying to push through as much as possible. That's why the decrees also have severability clauses, which say that if parts don't stand up in court, then other parts of these decrees continue to apply. So Trump is already anticipating a legal backlash here."

Trump is addressing issues that the Republican Party has been pushing for decades: dismantling the administrative state, clamping down on immigration and beefing up border security.

"None of this is new in that sense," says Lohmann. "It is dramatic and extraordinary how these policies are now being pushed through the political process."

Will Trump be successful?

Whether Trump's approach will be successful in the long term depends not only on the courts but also on the political dynamics of the coming years. France offers a good example. In 2007, French President Nicolas Sarkozy initiated a large number of reforms to overwhelm his opponents and create a determined and proactive impression. His strategy, however, was not particularly successful. Many critics viewed his approach as little more than chaos. Many of Sarkozy'sreform projects got stuck halfway or were later withdrawn.

Historically, the overexploitation of political leeway has often sparked backlash. But unlike previous attempts, Trump's agenda could permanently change the democratic structure of the US.

This article was translated from German.

Skip next section DW's Top Story

DW's Top Story

Skip next section More stories from DW