Donald Trump is an unpopular president. Or is he?

Polls indicate that, a year into his second term, the only president more unpopular than him is himself, during his first stint as US leader.

Pew Research's latest poll, published Thursday, found 37% — just over a third of Americans — approve of Trump's performance. The last Gallup update in December had it at 36%, with 59% disapproving.

Such numbers are not good for any leader, of any country, but Trump, whose first-year actions at home and abroad have been controversial, isn't wholly unpopular.

Dragging his approval down is his standing with Democratic supporters — hardly likely to switch their vote to Trump or the Republican party. Trump has single-digit support among Democratic voters.

On the flip side, his support with Republicans remains in positive territory. Though it has declined since the start of his term, more than half appear to still back his approach, according to Pew.

Trump still presides over a hyper-partisan America

Despite the national numbers, Trump's grip on the Republican Party remains significant, in no small part as the figurehead of the MAGA movement that evangelizes his long-standing "America First" mantra.

"We have a president who is kind of historically sort of lacking in support," John Mark Hansen, a political scientist at the University of Chicago, told DW.

"The support that he does have seems to be rock solid — there doesn't seem to be anything that can tear probably 80-85% of the Republican voters away from him."

Trump has been able to govern his first year largely without opposition thanks to Republican control of the US Congress, and a protective 2024 ruling by the Supreme Court granting the presidency broad immunity. That may change following November's midterm elections, which put all 435 House of Representatives seats, and a third of the Senate, up for re-election.

While it's true that he has implemented the sweeping tariffs and hard line immigration policing he promised in his campaign, his promise to rein in inflation, improve the cost of living and the economy generally is yet to be seen.

"A president's approval ratings are never higher than they are in the first year," Kathryn Dunn Tenpas, a presidential and congressional scholar at the University of Virginia Miller Center, told DW.

"Over time, a president's ratings tend to fall in part because they've made such outlandish promises and they can't fulfil them. And at the same time with President Trump, I think what we've had [is that] Americans care a lot about the state of the economy and the state of their own pocketbook," she said.

Support from middle-of-the-road voters who don't consider themselves Republicans or Democrats, who helped propel Trump to the White House, has also declined in his first term. In December's Gallup data, only 1 in 4 independents approved of Trump's performance.

Though issues like the forceful — now lethal — approach to urban immigration raids might draw the ire of left-leaning voters, Tenpas said these traditionally strong points for Trump may turn off center and moderately right Americans. 

"Of course, a lot of Democrats especially care a great deal about what's happening in Minneapolis and across the country in other cities where they've deployed ICE," Tenpas said. "For independents and maybe Republicans that are not Trump loyalists, I think they are more and more sort of disaffected with what's occurring."

The Republicans currently control the House of Representatives and the Senate, but a referendum on Trump would have his allies in Congress worried that a dozen crucial "purple" races — tossups between Republican and Democratic candidates — could go to his opponents and potentially result in losing control of the House.

Foreign forays unlikely to focus the minds of voters

A year into his first term, Trump has shown he can still rile his international peers and leave the global order on uncertain footing.

His tariffs have shaken world trade , his cuts to foreign aid have wound back decades of progress in international development, his attacks on Iran and move on Venezuela's ex-president have surprised those who see him as the figurehead of an isolationist America, his pitch to assimilate Greenland and Canada as US territory have enraged steadfast allies.

Pictures of ICE raids conducted by his administration have also garnered global attention.

But observers say that these issues pale in comparison to key domestic concerns likely to figure prominently ahead of the midterms. Trump has rarely been moved by  unpopular pereceptions outside the US. Internally, he has been more flexible, as evidenced by his recent rhetoric to "de-escalate" ICE raids.

"Almost always, the economy is the number one issue," said Todd Belt, a political scientist at the George Washington University, adding that there is a caveat.

"To the extent that foreign policy will make a difference in the midterm elections, it reflects poorly on the current administration that they are focused elsewhere instead of at home."

Tenpas agrees, but said that domestic immigration raids could also influence voters, "I think things like Minneapolis, Chicago, LA, sending troops, ICE, are more compelling in a voter's mind."

What seems apparent is that one year into his new presidency and with just over 10 months until the midterms, Trump has ample time to swing the narrative.

"It's a long way to the elections and Americans' [...] opinions on policies are fleeting," said Belt. "What is in the news one day may not be what's in the news the next."

"And the president is a master of distraction, and so that works to his advantage, just because we're talking about immigration at this time of the year, we could be talking about something very different come October," he added.

Edited by: Rob Mudge