Moscow called the high-profile killing of a pro-Russian separatist leader in Ukraine's breakaway Donetsk region "a provocation." DW spoke to experts about what the brutal murder means for long-stalled efforts at peace.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/V. Sprinchak
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Dmitry Peskov made it clear on Monday that Moscow will not withdraw from the Minsk peace agreement, even if it is "very difficult" to hold talks with Ukraine after the attack on Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the Donetsk pro-Russian separatists.
Earlier, the Russian president's press spokesman had said the attack would have "inevitable" consequences and that it wasn't helping the Minsk peace process. His remarks gave rise to speculation about the consequences for the peace plan for parts of eastern Ukraine, not yet implemented but agreed in 2015 in the Belarusian capital under German and French mediation. Kyiv considers the region an area occupied by Russia
The Ukrainian government has rejected all accusations. As far as Kyiv is concerned, Zakharchenko was either eliminated on Moscow's orders or died as a result of internal power struggles in the separatist region.
Zakharchenko is the most high-ranking victim in years of attacks on separatist leaders. He headed the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) beginning in August 2014 after his predecessor, a Russian political advisor, left for Moscow.
A woman lays flowers at one of several memorials to ZakharchenkoImage: Reuters/P. Rebrov
Paris and Berlin urge talks
It is still unclear what the attack means for the Minsk peace process. Both "people's republics" initially said they would adhere to existing agreements. Lavrov argued "Normandy format" talks any time soon including Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France have become impossible. There has also been talk of a summit meeting held in France.
Paris and Berlin on Monday urged continuing the talks. "It is really important to avoid an escalation now," said German government spokesman Steffen Seibert, adding that Zakharchenko's violent death "does not make the efforts to implement the Minsk agreements any less important — quite the contrary."
Under nightly mortar fire, thousands of elderly and impoverished civilians continue living on and between the front lines in East Ukraine’s ‘gray zone.’ Diego Cupolo reports from Donetsk.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Caught in the crossfire
Every evening, the shelling begins around sunset. The front lines near Donetsk see nightly mortar and machine gun fire as the conflict between the Ukrainian military and pro-Russian separatists’ rages on. Caught in the crossfire are many elderly civilians who are too impoverished to go elsewhere. Ivan Polansky, above, surveys the damage on his home in Zhovanka.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
‘Waiting for a shell’
Residents of Zhovanka in the so-called ‘gray zone,’ a thin strip of land separating warring militaries, line up to see a visiting doctor. Medics hold pop-up clinics in the town once a week. "Each day, you are waiting for the shell to land on your house and you never know when it’s going to come," said local resident Ludmila Studerikove.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Without electricity and heating
Zhovanka was once home to 1,000 people, but the number has dwindled to about 200 since the war began in mid-2014. It has been three months since residents have had electricity and gas. "Sometimes I’m so scared that I lay in bed at night and just shake,” Studerikove said. “My husband stays by my side and holds my hand."
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Nowhere else to go
Olexander Voroshkov, program coordinator for the regional charity SOS Kramatorsk, said residents continue to live in half-destroyed homes with leaky roofs, even through the winters, because rent in nearby Ukrainian cities has skyrocketed since the beginning of the conflict. "Rents in Kramatorsk are now similar to those in Kiev, but the salaries are much lower than in Kiev," Voroshkov said.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Reliance on humanitarian aid
Women line up to receive medicine and multivitamins in Zhovanka. Food and humanitarian supplies are delivered to the town by charity organizations, as crossing checkpoints sometimes requires people to wait more than a day in line. "We had everything; we had fresh air, nature. It was very nice here. Now we just have the cold," said local resident Vera Sharovarova.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Adapting to DNR frontlines
Vera Anoshyna, left, speaks with neighbors in Spartak, a town in what is now the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR). Anoshyna said she has done her best to adapt to the conflict. "If you don’t have water, you find it," she said. "If you don’t have electricity, you find a solution. But you never know where the next bomb will land."
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Six broken ribs
Svetlana Zavadenko stands before her home in Spartak. She was injured when the walls collapsed after several mortars exploded in her yard. Neighbors had to dig Zavadenko out of the rubble and she was sent to the hospital with six broken ribs and a ruptured liver. She smokes “Minsk” brand cigarettes and laughs when asked what she thinks about the war.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
'We lost hope'
Zavadenko recovered from her injuries and lives alone with several pets. Spartak has not had electricity, gas, or water services since 2014, so she uses a grill to cook her food. For firewood, she goes to an abandoned furniture factory nearby and collects plywood. "Last winter we thought [the war] would finish, but now, honestly, we lost hope," she said.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
Possibility of a drawdown
Damage from shelling on the outskirts of Donetsk. Despite past failures in deescalating the war, a new ceasefire may be in sight after an October peace summit in Berlin, where Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said he was ready to end hostilities in eastern Ukraine and would withdraw troops from the region.
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
'We lost too many soldiers to stop now'
Even if both sides agree on a ceasefire, they will face opposition from their militaries, who claim their sacrifices were too heavy to simply put down their weapons. "We lost too many soldiers to stop now," said Vladimir Parkhamovich, colonel of the 81st Airmobile Brigade in the Ukrainian military. "If they give us an order [to stop] we’ll consider them traitors."
Image: DW/D. Cupolo
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Where are the 'people's republics' headed?
Zakharchenko's death is unlikely to have tangible consequences for the peace process in Minsk, which is already stalled, observers say.
Central and Eastern Europe expert Stefan MeisterImage: DPAG
"Zakharchenko was never central to promoting the implementation of this agreement — to the contrary," says Stefan Meister, director of the Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).
"It is clear Russia is actually in charge, especially in relation to the Minsk process," agrees Susan Stewart of the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).
Security expert Susan Stewart: "It is clear Russia is actually in charge"Image: SWP
Getting the Minsk process up and running again and finding dialogue partners in the area has become more difficult for Germany, Meister told DW. "There has been no stabilization of structures, but rather a weakening, there are power struggles," the DGAP expert says.
What matters now, he stresses is how the two "people's republics" will proceed after a number of key figures, including Zakharchenko, have been deliberately killed. "The question is, is the DPR now without leadership, and is Russia even more popular?"
A look at the neighboring Luhansk People's Republic might help find the answer. Igor Plotnitsky, the head of the republic, was ousted in November 2017 after a brief scuffle with various armed groups, apparently under pressure from Moscow. He is said to be living in Russia today. The change of power in Luhansk had no consequences for the Minsk peace process.
Minsk agreement 'only alternative' to fighting with Russia