On April 25, foreign ministers Therese Kayikwamba Wagner of the Democratic Republic of Congoand Olivier Nduhungirehe of Rwanda signed a memorandum of understanding in Washington in the presence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

"We are discussing how to build new regional economic value chains that link our countries, including with American private sector investment," Nduhungirehe said. 

The memorandum, or MoU, has opened the door to a definitive peace agreement, he added. 

The target date is May 2, and Nduhungirehe's Congolese counterpart Wagner spoke of a "beginning."

The US is largely responsible for the MoU coming about. The US State Departmentsays the agreement aims to end the conflict and promote economic development in the Great Lakes region.

Both the DRC and Rwanda are to benefit from economic partnerships and extensive investments in the raw materials sector. The DRC has a significant deposits of the so-called "3T" minerals: tantalum, tungsten and tin.

Fiston Misona, chairman of civil society in Walikale in eastern Congo, takes a cautiously optimistic view of the declaration. 

"This is a good thing," Misona said. "Nevertheless, we have always deplored Rwanda's deceitful behavior. We want a prosperous, dignified, strong DRC."

But according to Jakob Kerstan from the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) in Kinshasa, there can be no talk of a deal yet. 

"It has not been clearly agreed that the M23 rebels must withdraw from the occupied territories," Kerstan said. "From the Rwandan point of view, it makes sense to maintain the status quo now because they have a vested interest in it."

The Congolese side, meanwhile, is at an impasse and is trying to retain international legitimacy for the eastern part of the country.

US interests at stake 

The main beneficiaries of the declaration are the US and Rwanda, fears Congolese economist Nico Omeonga.

"It was the US that almost forced the signing for its own interests," he told DW. "Nowhere in the declaration is it mentioned that the minerals will be processed in the country."

Currently, the DRC itself does not have the necessary capacity for processing the minerals locally.

The specific terms of the raw materials agreement are crucial, says Ntal Alimasi, a consultant on governance and anti-corruption measures in the DRC: "The real game is access to the minerals and thwarting China's quasi-dominance in the region."

Increased Chinese and Russian presence

Chinese companies now play a leading role in mining, and Russia has also strengthened its military and strategic ties with several African countries. As such, American dominance in the minerals market is being challenged, says Roger-Claude Liwanga, a lawyer at Emory University in Atlanta.

"It is therefore crucial for the US to promote peace and stability in the DRC to prevent these countries from gaining more influence," he said. 

Specifically, the lawyer recommends the US should sign a "coltan-for-security deal," modeled on the "oil-for-security deal" in which the US and Saudi Arabia were involved in the 1940s.

Liwanga said it would be naive to believe the signing of an agreement can immediately resolve a conflict that has lasted for decades.

"American mediation can only serve as a starting point for a multi-dimensional peace process," he said.

The conflict is deeply rooted in historical, political and ethnic complexities and a sustainable dialogue is needed.

Liwanga has called for greater involvement from local actors, saying what is needed is "a sincere commitment to disarmament, reconstruction, security sector reform ― and to addressing the root causes of the conflict such as ethnic divisions, economic inequalities and governance problems."

Mediation by the US and Qatar

Representatives of the DRC and M23/Congo River Alliance (AFC) had already published a statement on April 23 following mediation by Qatar.

"This is a difficult situation for the DRC," Bob Kabamba, a political scientist at the University of Liège, told DW. "If they sign, it's a way of recognizing the rebellion."

Now, the DRC has crossed that bridge. 

"This is subliminally a defeat," says Jakob Kerstan of the KAS. He adds that while the Congolese government is selling the US mediation as a big win, it is an admission that it cannot recapture its eastern territories on its own.

US President Donald Trump is particularly interested in the DRC's profit potential. 

"It is a very good play by the US to try to build up a good reputation with both partners," Kerstan says.

In Rwanda, this reputation certainly seems to be far better than that of its former colonial power, Belgium. Kigali, which according to the UN is deploying around 4,000 soldiers in the DRC to support the M23, broke off diplomatic relations with Belgium in March, citing Brussels' alleged hostile attitude. Previously,the EU had imposed sanctions against officers of the M23 and the Rwandan army.

"It is first and foremost a commitment to compliance with international law, which Mr. Kagame obviously finds difficult to understand," Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prevot told DW.

Ceasefires have often been broken

Rwanda has argued it is under threat from armed groups in the eastern Congo linked to the Rwandan genocide of 1994. While Prevot said Rwanda seeking security was "legitimate," this could not justify invading a neighboring country. 

Despite the ceasefire talks, fighting in South Kivu recently flared up again. Numerous ceasefires have been negotiated since the end of 2021, but all of them were broken after a short time.

Contributors: Jean Noel Ba-Mweze (Kinshasa), Sandrine Blanchard, Etienne Gatanazi, Wendy Bashi

Edited by: Cai Nebe