Peace in the DRC's northeast remains elusive, as the respective nations' leaders and their top representatives appear to be inching a proverbial step forward — only to then take two steps back again.

For months now, efforts have been underway at various diplomatic levels to achieve peace in northeast Congo; DRC President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame were seen shaking hands and speaking of making a "peace of the brave" as recently as October 9, during the Global Gateway Forum held in Brussels.

But this may have been little more than just a symbolic gesture, says Timo Roujean of Germany's Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS).

The Kinshasa-based analyst believe that "many observers saw this as more of a verbal farce because it does not correspond at all with the discourse." 

"In fact, it has not yet been clearly defined who gets what" in whatever peace deal might even be finalized between the two neighbors, Roujean added, echoing questions and doubts that many seem to have over the future of the beleaguered region.

Will the Washington peace plan work?

During an upcoming meeting in Washington next week, facilitated by US President Donald Trump, the two African leader are due to meet again and sign possibly the most-binding peace agreement between them yet.

The path for such a lasting truce had already been laid in June, then the foreign ministers of both countries signed a declaration in the US capital already to stop animosities.

But now it is doubtful whether this high-level meeting will take place next week at all amid tensions nearing their boiling point once again: Rebels belonging to the Rwanda-backed M23 movement continue to control large swathes of eastern the  Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and have even recently captured further areas in the heavily embattled North Kivu province.

At a press conference on November 27, Rwandan President Paul Kagame accused the Congolese government of deliberatey  delaying the signing of the peace agreement, claiming that since previous rounds of talks, the DRC had "set conditions other than those actually agreed in Washington."

Congo's President Tshisekedi has agreed to travel to Washington on December 4 to sign the agreement, with Kagame saying rather skeptically that he was "not sure we'll meet in Washington" in the coming week.

Calls for sanctions against Rwanda

The propsect of achieving peace in northeast Congo was also a key topic at this week's AU-EU summit in Angola, were both blocs issued a joint statement, reaffirming their "unwavering support for a just, comprehensive, and lasting peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo."

On the sidelines summit in Angola last week, the two foreign ministers of the two countries meanwhile voiced sharp criticism about each other's nations' actions.

Congolese Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba said she felt "frustrated" by the current state of affairs, calling for the international community to exert more pressure on Rwanda:

"We know who the M23 depends on," the minister told DW, refering to the government of Rwandan leader Kagame — a claim that is backed up by independent observers.

"We know very well that with a little more pressure, a little more sanctions or accountability, the situation can change quickly," Kayikwamba told DW.

However, Rwanda has repeatedly denied the veracity of evidence saying that M23 receives its support; in fact, the closest that Kigali ever got to admitting allegations of proppoing up M23 and other insurgent groups in Congo was to simply not respond to such charges during previous peace talks.

DRC: Anger over lack of EU support

Kayikwamba's frustrations with failing to reach any diplomatic progress are palpable. She highlights that she has often heard from the EU that it is difficult to find a consensus among the 27 member states to push for sanctions due to "different interpretations" on what's going on in her country.

However, she fimrly rejects this argument: "There are no different interpretations when it comes to human lives and when the territorial integrity of a country is violated."

The minister's accusations against the EU are unequivocally clear: "[The EU's] decisions sometimes show that they apply double standards, that a mother in Buhimba seems to count for less than anyone else on this planet."

Raw materials and even rawer feelings

Analyst Roujean even goes a step further, saying that "(f)or the Congolese, it seems as if the EU is making a pact with the enemy." 

Roujean believes that an EU import ban on procuring unclassified minerals and ores from Rwanda could be one reliable solution in forcing Kagame's hand. 

"Any geologist can confirm that these critical minerals that the EU wants to purchase in Rwanda are actually stolen goods from the Congo," says Roujean, highlighting further that since Rwanda continues to rely on foreign aid from Europe and beyond for its budget, it is hardly in a barganing position.

"At the moment, they are turning a blind eye," says Roujean, explaining that the EU is seemingly prioritizing its own economic interest in raw materials coming from the region.

To this end, the EU Commission signed a memorandum of understanding with Rwanda as recently as February 2024, according to which both parties seek to work more closely together on the issue of minerals.

The conflict in northeast DRC at that time was already at its peak.

Rwanda presents itself as key EU-partner in Africa 

Rwanda's Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe meanwhile continues his government's official course, rejecting the accusations leveled against his country as well as his counterpart's calls for sanctions.

He told DW in Luanda that the DRC was a "state that only talks about sanctions against others instead of solving its own problems: problems of governance, problems of supporting genocidal movements such as the [militia] FDLR, problems of hate speech directed against the Congolese [ethnic groups] Tutsi and Banyamulenge."

The FDLR is considered the successor organization to former Rwandan soldiers and militiamen of Hutu background, who committed genocide against the Tutsi and moderate Hutu in Rwanda in 1994, making them rivals of the Tutsi-led M23.

Nduhungirehe meanwhile pointed out how well Rwanda was performing on the international stage, especially in Europe; he cited an agreement concluded in October according to which the EU will support vaccine production facilitied in Rwanda with 95 million euros.

Rwanda accuses DRC of breaking truce with M23

Nduhungirehe further showcased Rwanda's self-perception of being the victim and not the aggressor in the ongoing tensions by highlighting repeated violations against existing ceasefires by the DRC, most notably the truce signed between the DRC and M23 rebels in Doha in July.

He told DW that the Congolese army "violates this ceasefire daily with bombings," citing reports of attacks carried out with drones and fighter jets, which he believes are not only directed against the positions of M23 and other rebel groups, but also directly against the Banyamulenge population.

Authorities in the DRC, however, believe they have to do at least the bare minimum to maintain a modicum of control over the region, especially since the issue of M23-control over large areas of northeast Congo remains unresolved. 

Who's to blame for the ongoing closure of Goma airport?

Kayikwamba implicitly defended her government's actions, pointing out the key issue of the airport of the main city in the region, Goma, reopening as an example; since the airport remains in rebel hands, it is effectively out of commission, which Kayikwamba claims is Rwanda's fault.

At a conference in Paris on October 30, the reopening of the airport had already been agreed in order to facilitate humanitarian access to the region. However, Rwanda backtracked on the plan shortly after the meeting.

Her counterpart Nduhungirehe rejects the accusation that Rwanda proactively chose to obstruct the reopening of Goma airport, blaming the reality on the ground as the main culprit instead.

"The airport in Goma is in the hands of the de facto authorities, namely the M23. To believe that you can artificially open an airport without involving the authorities that physically control it is nonsense," he told DW.

Timo Roujean meanwhile believes that this mutual trade of blame and accountability is in fact a diversion tactic at best, and a leveraging point at worst:

"While the DRC wants to use the airport again, the M23 ... wants the banks in the border towns of Goma and Bukavu to reopen," he told DW, adding that the Congolese central bank had ordered these banks to shut in order to limit cash flows to the rebel group. 

If Kinshasa allowed the banks to operate again, the issue of Goma airport might be resolved much more quickly, Roujean believes, hoping that both side will come to their senses soon and find common ground at least on such humanitarian matters.

Somewhat uncharacteristically perhaps, Rwandan President Kagame meanwhile also parted for the weekend with a message of hope; remaining undecided on his participation at the upcoming peace talks in Washington next week, he merely told reporters: "We'll wait and see, and continue to hope." 

Edited by: Sertan Sanderson