Confusing pronouncements on the South China Sea and mounting international condemnation of the bloody crackdown on illegal drugs could lead the Philippines into a foreign policy crisis. Ana P. Santos reports from Manila.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Ng Han Guan
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Last week, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte alarmed regional neighbors when he ordered troops to occupy all South China Sea reefs.
"It looks like everybody is making a grab for the islands there, so we better live on those that are still vacant. At least, let us get what is ours now and make a strong point that it is ours," Duterte said.
The president further said he may go to the islands himself and plant a Philippine flag there in June, in time for the Philippine Independence Day on June 12.
The statement was interpreted as the Philippines asserting its claim on the disputed South China Sea, a resource-rich area and major maritime highway where an estimated $5 trillion worth of goods pass through every year. It was also an about-face to Duterte's earlier moves to forge warmer relations with China through bilateral trade and cooperation.
"The Philippines is currently occupying nine reefs and atolls in the region. There are no plans to construct new structures. We will only upgrade the facilities for our personnel there," DND public affairs chief, Arsenio Andolong, told DW.
Duterte's statement was interpreted as the Philippines asserting its claim on the disputed South China SeaImage: picture-alliance/dpa/R.B. Tongo
This kind of U-turn and follow up explanations to clarify the president's pronouncements is not unusual for the Duterte administration. In March, the Philippines requested that China explain the presence of its ships in Benham Rise. Beijing responded by saying the Philippines could not claim the area as its own. The United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (UNCLCS) awarded Benham Rise to the Philippines in 2012.
Later, at a press conference, Duterte confused Benham Rise with the South China Sea, which is located on the opposite side of the archipelago.
"I think the president needs a primer on the South China Sea," Jay Batongbacal, director of the Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea at the Philippines College of Law, told DW. "All places in the area that could be occupied are already occupied by the Philippines, Vietnam and China," the expert said.
Under this scenario, an order by Duterte to occupy the reefs could be taken as intent to build new artificial reefs in the area or spark conflict by occupying the reefs and atolls claimed by other countries.
Either way, such pronouncements are befuddling.
"It happens when the chief architect of the country's foreign policy is not fully informed about the region," Batongbacal said.
'The Philippines is currently occupying nine reefs and atolls in the region,' said DND public affairs chief Arsenio AndolongImage: Reuters/E. De Castro
Increasing isolation
"China's strategic ambition is to become a dominant power in the region. Its movements in the region are not economic, they are geopolitical," Jose Antonio Custodio, a maritime historian and international security expert, told DW.
The flip-flopping on the South China Sea coupled with Duterte's dismissal of calls from the international community to end his brutal crackdown on illegal drugs could further isolate the Philippines from its traditional allies like the United States and Europe.
The European Parliament was the latest international body to call for an international investigation into "unlawful killings and other violations" linked to President Duterte's controversial war on drugs.
"The US and the EU continue to criticize our human rights violations which could have economic implications. This is the most serious foreign policy crisis that we have experienced in the last 30 years," Custodio told DW.
Losing traditional trade partners like the US and other allies could lead to the Philippines increasing its economic dependence on China.
"That would further invalidate our claim to the West Philippine Sea and Benham Rise. It neutralizes the Philippines and allows China to project further into the region," Custodio added.
But Charles Jose, a spokesperson for the Department of Foreign Affairs, told DW "there is no inconsistency in our policy on the South China Sea."
On Monday, Duterte clarified his own statements and said, "China can relax. We will not go to war with you."
Duterte is scheduled to visit China in May to continue talks that he started during his state visit to Beijing in October last year.
Beijing's island-building in the South China Sea
Satellite images show the extent and speed of China's land reclamation activities in disputed waters of the South China Sea. The new land masses are believed to be primarily military installations.
Image: CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative/DigitalGlobe
Runway
China is expanding the construction of its facilities on Fiery Cross Reef. Provided by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), this June 28, 2015 photo reveals Beijing has nearly completed a 3,000 meter (9,800-foot) airstrip, long enough to accommodate most Chinese military aircraft. Two helipads, up to 10 satellite communications antennas, and one possible radar tower are also visible.
Image: CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative/DigitalGlobe
Expansion
Reclamation on Fiery Cross Reef, which lies on the west side of the Spratly Islands, began in August of 2014 and its principal landmass was finished by November. Dredgers have created a land mass that spans the entire existing reef and is approximately 3,000 meters long and 200-300 meters wide.
Image: Reuters//U.S. Navy
Facilities
This picture taken last November shows construction work being carried out on Fiery Cross Reef. The reef reportedly already houses a helicopter landing pad, a 300-meter-long wharf, a harbor large enough to dock military tankers, barracks and artillery emplacements.
Image: CSIS, IHS Jane's
South Johnson Reef
This reef was one of the first facilities to finish principal land reclamation. This recent picture shows that a radar tower is nearing completion at the north end of the land mass. According to AMTI, a new large multi-level military facility has been built in the center of the island. Up to six surveillance towers are being constructed alongside four possible weapons towers.
Image: Asia Maritime Transparency Iniative
A naval base?
Beginning in early 2015, Mischief Reef - also located in the Spratlys - has undergone extensive reclamation activity. Experts say that the recent widening of the southern entrance to the reef, coupled with sightings of Chinese navy vessels, may suggest a future role for the reclaimed reef as a naval base. Taken on March 17, this image shows a chain of small land formations at the reef.
Image: CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative/DigitalGlobe
From reef to island
Significant construction on Gaven Reef began in 2014, with a total of 114,000 square meters of land already created. Satellite pictures show just how fast construction has progressed on the reef. A new artificial island was created between March (left) and August (right) 2014.
According to AMTI, China has had a troop garrison on Gaven Reef since 2003, which has included a large supply platform where ships can dock. Experts say a new main square building in the reef appears to be an anti-aircraft tower.
Image: AMTI
A standardized process
As seen in this image, the basic process of expanding these features involves dredging sand from the seafloor and dumping it onto the reefs. The structure is raised above the high water line, hiding the status of the bank or reef beneath. The sand is then smoothed out and workers surround the island with a concrete barrier to protect against erosion and storm surge, and begin construction.
Image: CSIS
'Historic rights'
China claims most of the potentially energy-rich waterway, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The US Pacific Fleet commander recently said China was "creating a great wall of sand" in the South China Sea, causing serious concerns about its territorial intentions. Beijing argues it is asserting its so-called "historic rights" to maritime resources in the area.
Image: DW
Territorial disputes
The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have overlapping claims, which have led to territorial disputes in the area. Last summer, China's deployment of a massive oil rig in waters also claimed by Hanoi escalated tensions in the region, sparking a standoff at sea and violent anti-Chinese demonstrations in Vietnam.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo
US concerns
Washington is concerned China's efforts carry a military dimension that could undermine the US' naval and economic power in the Pacific, and has weighed sending warships and surveillance aircraft within 12 nautical miles of the new artificial islands. Washington has repeatedly called on Beijing and others to end reclamation projects in the disputed waters, but Beijing rejects those demands.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/M. Abbugao
Ecological impact
The Philippines filed a formal plea at the UN last year, challenging Beijing's territorial claims. Manila said China's reclamation activities are causing "irreversible and widespread damage to the biodiversity and ecological balance of the South China Sea." It also claimed that the destruction of coral reef systems is estimated to cause economic losses valued at $100 million annually.
