Health authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) said on Tuesday that an outbreak of a particularly virulent strain of the Bundibugyo Ebola virus currently raging in the east and northeast of the country has killed more than 2,000 people since the first case was confirmed.

In all, more than 4,380 infections have been recorded.

The current outbreak is the 17th ever recorded in the DRC, with Sania Nishtar of the Gavi global vaccine alliance warning it could become "the largest outbreak ever."

Until now, the worst outbreak recorded in the DRC was the one that took place from 2018 to 2020 when some 3,500 infections led to 2,300 deaths.

The pace of death is gathering momentum this time around, with the virus spreading faster and exhibiting a higher mortality rate than the 2014-2016 West African outbreak — the worst outbreak on record, which logged 28,000 infections and more than 11,000 deaths.

The current DRC outbreak was declared on May 15, but health authorities say the first transmissions likely took place in February of earlier still.

The 1,000-death mark was not reached until nine weeks in, now — in just three-weeks' time — that figure has doubled again.

The case fatality rate of the current outbreak is 45.9% compared to 39.6% in the 2014-2016 West African outbreak.

'We haven't reached the peak yet,' says DRC health minister

Though there are vaccines against some strains of the Ebola virus, there are currently none approved for the rare Bundibugyo strain that is spreading across the DRC faster than health authorities can trace it.

Moreover, health authorities face massive logistics challenges due to the volatile security situation in the country, where bad roads and rebel violence coupled with lack of healthcare worker pay and mass strikes make it increasingly difficult to keep tabs on the illness.

"We haven't reached the peak yet," said Health Minister Samuel Roger Kamba in an interview shared by the ministry on X. "Within the next three months, we expect to have already brought the spread under control and to start seeing it decline," he added.

Ebola, which is transmitted through physical contact with bodily fluids, causing a hemorrhagic fever, has killed more than 15,000 people in Africa over the past half century.

Authorities in the DRC have placed restrictions on public gatherings as well as closing the airport in Ituri Province, the epicenter of the outbreak. Still, fighting and disease have forced the displacement of masses of people in the DRC, Rwanda and South Sudan.

On Monday, the World Health Organization's (WHO) regional director told reporters that authorities are "chasing the virus… the virus is ahead of us."

What's the latest on bids to treat or vaccinate this Ebola strain?

Clinical trials for two antiviral treatment methods have been ongoing since early July and on Friday the WHO recommended undertaking a full-scale human trial of the Ervebo vaccine.

Although Ervebo has proven effective against the Zaire strain of Ebola, its efficacy in fighting the Bundibugyo strain is unproven. WHO officials are hopeful that it can offer some protection against the DRC strain.

Vaccine alliance Gavi says it has made some 500,000 doses of Ervebo in its stockpiles available for the trial.

Virologists say the new Bundibugyo strain appears to have been transmitted from animals to humans and has changed from previous outbreaks in 2007 and 2012.

Researchers from Congo, Uganda, Belgium and other countries published findings ‌in the journal Nature Medicine on Monday, suggesting the outbreak began ‌with an animal-to-human transmission event and was then spread between people.

Given the severity of the outbreak, authorities are looking into the possibility that the pathogen may have mutated. 

Jean Kaseya, the head of the Africa CDC, last week warned that fewer and fewer new cases could be traced back to contacts of existing confirmed patients, with researchers falling well below the WHO's targets of tracking 95% of potential contacts to contain the spread. 

Edited by: Rebecca Staudenmaier

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