ECOWAS was once considered Africa's most institutionally developed regional organization, but that has changed. Following the recent military coups in various countries in the West African sub-region, it became clear that the organization lacks authority, legitimacy, and effective sanction and intervention instruments.

"ECOWAS will only have a future if its member countries remember the spirit of pan-Africanism, come together, and pull in the same direction," Carlos Pereira, a political analyst and activist from Guinea-Bissau told DW. Cooperation and integration within the region are more important than ever, but currently almost non-existent, he added.

The problems within the regional bloc became evident when the three Sahel countries, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, declared their withdrawal from ECOWAS in January 2024. The withdrawals plunged the regional organization into a deep crisis.

The triggers were military coups in all three states, to which ECOWAS initially responded consistently: Emergency summits decided on regular sanctions against the coup leaders and vehemently demanded the reinstatement of the ousted rulers. However, the sanctions have largely failed to bring about the desired outcomes.

Senegal urges radical ECOWAS reforms

Recently, another potential cause of instability has emerged in the region. Senegal's newly elected President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who had already referred to himself as the "candidate of breaking with the past" during the election campaign, has repeatedly expressed understanding for the coup regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. In addition, the 44-year-old leader is increasingly calling for "radical changes in ECOWAS," which, according to observers, will not contribute to strengthening the economic community and calming the situation in the region.

One of Faye's most crucial election promises is to examine whether the region's currency — the CFA Franc — which dates back to the colonial era and is tied to the euro, should be abolished. Faye also wants to renegotiate fisheries agreements with the EU and subject contracts with European companies exploiting large gas reserves off Senegal's coast to critical scrutiny. Dakar hopes that as many ECOWAS partners as possible will follow Senegal's example.

Since Faye's election, many political observers in the region have wondered whether Senegal is being ruled by a president who will make ECOWAS a scapegoat for the mistakes of the past, just as the coup regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are doing. Those nations are distancing themselves from ECOWAS and the West and cooperating with Russia and China, especially in military and security sectors.

ECOWAS faces litmus test

In light of these developments, ECOWAS must make profound changes, said Nigerien political analyst Dicko Abdourahamane. If nothing is done, this could mean the bloc's "systematic disappearance."

For Guinean activist Pereira, such reforms can only succeed if the region's political leaders develop a new "pan-Africanist vision."

Senegalese journalist Hamidou Sagna holds a similar position. "The survival of ECOWAS is only possible if all the countries involved in the region consider the concept of democracy more important than their particular economic interests," Sagna told DW. "Only then is it possible to implement real reforms so that ECOWAS truly serves the peoples of the member states."

Will sanctioned junta-led regimes return to ECOWAS?

A quick re-entry of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali into ECOWAS is considered unlikely by most political observers in the region. The three countries have withdrawn from ECOWAS and seem to have come to terms with their new reality, said Pereira. The only way to possibly persuade these countries to rejoin ECOWAS would be to lift all sanctions.

And that is what Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu, who currently holds the ECOWAS chairmanship, is doing step by step. At the end of February, he announced that the previously closed land and air borders to the sanctioned countries should be reopened. Trade and financial transactions between the states should be possible again. Only personal and political sanctions should remain in place for the time being.

Abdourahamane is pessimistic about the prospects of the three junta-led Sahel countries rejoining ECOWAS. They have since created an alternative organization called the "Sahel States Alliance" (AES), a move which will not be easy to reverse. "If Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali really should return at some point, which is highly unlikely in the medium term, it will most likely only be possible within the framework and in the name of the AES," said Abdourahamane

Sagna also pointed out the difficulty of persuading the three states to return to ECOWAS. However, he added that Senegal's new president could play a significant role in these efforts: 

"These three Sahel countries have received the new Senegalese president's position towards them extremely positively. They have great hopes that Senegal will approach their positions. And indeed, there are certain agreements on several points. However, these agreements — at least in the short and medium term — are not enough to induce the Sahel countries concerned to turn back to ECOWAS."

Djariatu Balde contributed to this report.

Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu