It's a beautiful September afternoon in the Czech capital, Prague.

Football fans are making their way to a Champions League match in the stadium that is home to the soccer club Slavia Prague.

A group of campaigners with wicker baskets and cloth bags full of flyers and pens stands outside the nearby Eden shopping mall. Among them is Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky, who is watched carefully by a discreet security detail.

Lipavsky is one of the senior members of the ruling center-right political alliance, Spolu (Together), and also one of its most popular politicians.

He is here to persuade voters to back the government of Prime Minister Petr Fiala in the parliamentary election on October 3 and 4, giving them another four years in office.

Pro-Ukraine and a Western orientation

"This election is really about the future orientation of this country," Lipavsky told DW. "For the first time, forces that are openly collaborating with Putin's Russia are reaching for power."

"That's the main reason why I'm running in this election," he continued, "I believe we can succeed in maintaining the pro-Western course of the country. And that's incredibly important."

The parties in the ruling coalition are campaigning on their clear foreign policy line, which is based on full and unequivocal support for Ukraine. This is what the majority of voters like about Petr Fiala's government.

Czechia, which has a population of 10 million, has taken in over half a million Ukrainian refugees, many of whom found accommodation and got support from private citizens.

Prague supplies Ukraine with arms and ammunition, and Petr Fiala was part of the very first group of European leaders to travel to Kyiv after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

Disappointed pensioners

"I wish you the very best of luck," a gray-haired pensioner tells Lipavsky. "I'm trying to convince as many people as possible in my circle to vote for you," she says.

But this woman is the exception rather than the rule in her age group. The vast majority of Czech pensioners are deeply disappointed with the government and intend to vote for the opposition.

Two years ago, the Fiala government limited the annual rise in pensions in order to reduce the country's budget deficit. To this day, most pensioners see this as a betrayal.

"Fiala is a criminal. The government gave the money to the Ukrainians instead of to us Czechs. I will never vote for you," says an angry pensioner to one of the campaigners as he carries a new flat-screen television out of the shopping mall.

As election day approaches, most Czechs are unhappy about the government's austerity policies, sluggish economic growth and high inflation. Fiala is blamed for poverty and high prices.

Economic recovery too late for the government?

But it is thanks to the government's austerity policies that Czechia's budget deficit is now less than 2% of GDP, its rating is better than that of France and the average gross monthly income in the country has risen by over 5% and is, for the first time, over €2,000 ($2,300).

Inflation is at 2.5%, making it the lowest in the Visegrad (V4) Group, which includes Poland, Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary.

Czech households are spending more than ever before, and travel agencies reported record demand this summer.

"I expected this positive economic news to come a little sooner," Foreign Minister Lipavsky told DW. "I don't know if it's already too late."

Opposition ahead in the polls

With a little over a week to go until the election, opinion polls indicate that Spolu will get about 20% of the vote.

The opposition Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO) party is over 10 percentage points ahead at 31%.

Together, the parties of the ruling coalition and any possible allies are expected to get about 40% of votes, which would not be enough to form a coalition government after the election. 

Change of government on the cards?

The leader of the ANO party, Andrej Babis, hopes to be reelected prime minister after four years in the opposition.

The right-wing populist oligarch is pouring everything into this campaign, even giving it precedence over the running of his business. For weeks, he has been crisscrossing the country, meeting voters several times a day.

His team has been flooding social media with videos. It has also brought out a collection of sweatshirts, T-shirts, and even shorts specially for the election. Although they are not cheap, these items of clothing are proving popular not only with supporters, but also as novelty gifts with those who are resolutely opposed to Babis and ANO.

'Choose a better life!'

Babis is promising Czechs a higher standard of living. On billboards across the country, he portrays himself as a kind of savior, pledging higher pensions, lower mortgages and lower prices. His election slogan is "Choose a better life!"

He is also targeting the EU's Green Deal, promising not to introduce the EU emission certificates (ETS 2) for households as planned in 2027. Voters fear that the introduction of these certificates will lead to considerable price hikes for heating and fuel.

Babis avoids talking about other foreign policy issues and has not openly spoken out against a continuation of the country's support for Ukraine.

At the same time, however, he is not criticizing the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy movement or the far-left Stacilo! (Enough!) movement, with whom he hopes to form a coalition after the election.

Both parties are pro-Russian and are calling for Czechia to leave both NATO and the EU. 

Government needs a 'political miracle'

Foreign policy — and above all the question of the country's stance on Ukraine and Russia — have played an important role in the Czech election campaign, said political scientist Lubomir Kopecek of Masaryk University in Brno.

"Foreign and security policy issues are more important in these elections than they were in previous polls we've had in the Czech Republic," he told DW.

"Nevertheless, this will apparently not be enough to reverse the current trend in favor of the ruling parties," said Kopecek. He assumes that most voters will be swayed by financial considerations on election day and says that the news that things are looking up for the Czech economy comes too late for the Fiala government.

"If the elections were to take place in a year's time and were the economy to continue developing as it has over the past six months, the situation would be different," said Kopecek. "There is a chance that the government of Petr Fiala will remain in power, but it would be something of a political miracle if it does."

This article was originally published in German.