As global leaders head to the Brazilian city of Belem to discuss how to keep runaway global heating in check, a new report underscores the need for solid national climate commitments.

Against the backdrop of rising temperatures that marked 2024 as the hottest ever on record, the United Nations Environment Program's (UNEP) latest Emissions Gap Report says the predicted global temperature increase over the course of this century has only slightly fallen, "leaving the world heading for serious escalation of climate risks."

As emissions continue to rise — albeit more slowly — the authors said the world was on track to overshoot the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold, "at least temporarily." 

Signatories to the 2015 Paris climate accord agreed to try and limit temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees above pre-industrialization levels, with efforts to cap the increase at 1.5 C.

Even if countries were to do everything to reach their self-set national climate targets, the world would still be heading for warming of between 2.3 and 2.5 degrees C by the end of the century. This is a slight improvement on last year's predictions, but under current policies, the study says, the world is actually on track for 2.8 degrees of warming by 2100. 

That temperature rise would be "difficult to reverse" and would require much faster additional reductions in the greenhouse gas emissions generated by burning oil, gas and coal. 

UNEP chief Inger Andersen said that "while national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough," adding that proven solutions already exist. 

"From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane  emissions, we know what needs to be done," she said. "We still need emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop."

She added that this is the time for countries to fully commit to and invest in their future through ambitious climate action "that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience."

Progress has been made in the past decade

Before the Paris Agreement was reached ten years ago, the predictions for temperature increase by the end of the century were as high as 3.5 degrees Celsius. 

By switching from coal to renewable energies for power generation, some countries have already been able to significantly reduce CO2 emissions. At the same time, global consumption of fossil fuels, and accompanying emissions have risen. In 2024, they climbed 2.3% over the previous year.

The predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century has only slightly fallen, "leaving the world heading for serious escalation of climate risks," according to the authors. 

The report says the only way to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100 would be to cut emissions more than 55% by 2035. And this would require radical and swift reductions in greenhouse gases.

The study explores a scenario of "rapid mitigation action from 2025" that would limit the 1.5 C target by around 0.3 degrees in the coming decades. It would require cutting emissions 46% by 2035, and a reliance on natural and technological carbon capture. 

While the task ahead is daunting, the progress that has been made in the ten years since the Paris Agreement came into force shows that a drastic reduction in emissions is both "possible and desirable," the authors wrote.

Cutting emissions remains critical

The report warns of the dangerous impact of failing to keep global temperature rise in check. 

"Every fraction of a degree avoided reduces an escalation of the damages, losses and health impacts that are harming all nations — while hitting the poorest and most vulnerable the hardest," the authors wrote. 

Unchecked heating also increases the risk of triggering tipping points, which could lead to abrupt and irreversible climate changes.

The UN authors emphasized the advantages and opportunities of accelerated climate protection measures for economic growth, new jobs and energy security. The necessary low-carbon technologies are available, and the boom of wind and solar energy continues to exceed expectations and reduce energy costs.

According to the report, achieving the necessary emission cuts requires overcoming political and technical obstacles as well as providing an unprecedented increase in support for developing countries.