Macron's EU vision meets Merkel's election realities
Rob Mudge
September 26, 2017
The French president is to lay out his vision for Europe. Angela Merkel is readying for coalition talks with potential partners, the FDP and the Greens. How could Germany's next government react to Macron's EU reform?
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French President Emmanuel Macron is set to unveil his ambitious EU reform plans in a speech later on Tuesday at the Sorbonne University in Paris. So what exactly does he have in mind?
Well, nothing less than a historic reconstruction of Europe and the Eurozone judging by his road map, which - among other ideas - calls for the creation of a eurozone finance minister, a separate budget, a EU finance ministry and a European monetary fund.
Angela Merkel and her Christian Democrats have cautiously welcomed the idea of installing a finance minister, however, there is likely to be disagreement with Macron over how influential and powerful the position should be.
- While Macron says the budget he or she presides over should be in the "hundreds of billions," Merkel has a distinctly smaller budget in mind.
- Pledging to form a stable government, Merkel has refrained so far from drawing red lines over European policy, which gives her and her potential coalition partners enough room to maneuver.
- Macron and Merkel are more likely to see eye to eye on turning the current bailout fund into a wider monetary fund and on border security and defense issues.
FDP:
The Free Democrats' leader, Christian Lindner, has already made his disdain clear. Paying into a budget to finance the French government's spending or Italy's financial transgressions would be a "red line."
- The FDP is also strictly opposed to the idea of a single EU finance minister.
- They favor a "multi-speed Europe" whereby the northern, fiscally disciplined member states pursue common objectives and others follow at a later stage.
- Toughness on Eurozone budget discipline and opposition to any fiscal transfers within the Eurozone are central issues for the FDP.
The Greens:
On the surface, the Greens, who see themselves as the most pro-European of the major German parties, wholeheartedly support Macron's vision to reform the European Union.
- They reject a division of Europe and want a deeper integration.
- Greens co-leader Cem Özedmir has said that trying to help struggling southern European economies by imposing austerity measures alone does not work in Europe.
- However, the Greens are vague on whether they support a separate Eurozone budget as proposed by Macron.
What that means for a potential German government
Taken at face value their respective party programs would indicate that the Greens want to press ahead with deeper European integration and the FDP wants to hold it back - a conflict that could frustrate coalition talks with Merkel, who wants a "stronger Europe" and is keen to revive the Franco-German engine in and for Europe.
While differences remain, the lure of being part of Germany's next government suggests that both the FDP and the Greens will do their utmost to paper over those cracks and find common ground on European reform.
Foreign flags and even traffic lights are used to describe the various coalitions that emerge in German elections. Coalitions are common under Germany's proportional representation system.
Image: Getty Images
'Traffic light' coalition — Red, Yellow, Green
Since 2021 Germany has been governed by a center-left coalition of Social Democrats (SPD), ecologist Greens, and free-market-oriented neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), whose color is yellow. They started out as a self-declared "Fortschrittskoalition" (progress coalition) but got mired in infighting along the way.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/J.Büttner
Black-red coalition
The Conservative's black combined with transformative red is the color code when the Christian Democrats govern in a "grand coalition" with the Social Democrats. This combination of Germany's two big tent parties, was in power for eight years until 2021, led by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Image: picture-alliance/R. Goldmann
'Pizza Connection' — precursor to Black and Green
When Bonn was still Germany's capital, conservative and Greens lawmakers started meeting informally in an Italian restaurant, in what became known as the 'Pizza Connection.' At the regional level, Baden-Württemburg's Greens-CDU coalition has governed since 2016 and Germany's most populous state of North-Rhine Westphalia has had a Black-Green government since 2022.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
'Jamaica' option — black, yellow and green
A three-way deal between the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats FDP), whose color is yellow did not come about at national level in 2017 after the FDP called off talks. It has been tested at a state level, where Schleswig-Holstein had a "Jamaica" government until they went Black-Green in 2022.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/dpaweb
Black, Red, Green — like Kenya's flag
The eastern German state of Saxony has been governed by a coalition of CDU, SPD and Greens, headed by the state's popular Premier Michael Kretschmer. He is hoping to be able to stay in power despite the rise of the right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) which is campaigning on an anti-immigrant and anti-NATO agenda.
Image: Fotolia/aaastocks
The Germany coalition — Black, Red and Yellow
The eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt has been governed by a coalition led by the CDU's popular Premier Rainer Haseloff. He has teamed up with the SPD and the FDP. The alliance of unlikely bedfellows was the only viable option to ward off the threat by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
Image: Hoffmann/Caro/picture alliance
Black and Orange
Since 2018 Bavaria's Christian Social Union (CSU) has been governing with the Free Voters (FV), whose color is Orange. The FV is a grass-roots populist and far-right-leaning party and is led by its controversial chairman Hubert Aiwanger. Strong in rural areas of southern and eastern Germany, the Freie Wähler is seeking a larger role at the national level and currently has three MEPs.
Image: Privat
Blackberry coalition
In graphics showing opinion polls, the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is shown in violet. That may be fitting, as it combines socialist, far-left (red) with populist right wing (blue) ideas in its platform. Although the party was only founded in 2024, it is doing so well in the eastern German states that it may well be asked to join coalition governments. Possibly led by the CDU (Black).