Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco — often referred to as the Maghreb countries — are turning into Europe's most important geopolitical partners when it comes to curbing migration and supplying energy, while maintaining regional stability in North Africa.

"These countries have discovered their leverage and bargaining power, which has enabled them to reverse the power asymmetry," Isabelle Werenfels, senior fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told DW.

"The long-standing donor-beneficiary logic that used to dominate the EU-Maghreb relations has been inverted," she added.

Matjaz Nemec, the head of the European Parliament's Delegation for Relations with Maghreb countries, confirms this view. "Last year has been quite challenging for the relations with the European Union and the Maghreb region," he told DW.

European-Algerian nexus

"Algeria is one of the few countries in North Africa where relations have not deteriorated," said Nemec. "Our relation with Algeria seems somewhat stable and our energy cooperation has intensified since the start of the war in Ukraine, which is positive."

"The increasing importance of the Algerian energy sector is a very big leverage that Algerian authorities have at the moment," Zine Ghebouli, visiting fellow with the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW.

Exports of liquefied natural gas to Europe rose to 2.8 million tons in the first quarter of 2023, compared to 2.4 million tons in the same period last year. 

Ghebouli also observed that "the current administration [under Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune] unlike the former one [under Abdelaziz Bouteflika], wants to benefit more from its partnership with Europe, which includes technical expertise and massive investment, especially in the hydrocarbon sector and across the energy sector."

These could be crucial factors for the upcoming presidential election in 2024. 

However, Europe "needs a stable partner in the region especially with what's happening in Libya, Tunisia and the Sahel, as the entire situation in Mali and in Niger is starting to degenerate into a geopolitical competition scene," he added.

Meanwhile, Algeria has been cracking down on dissent for years. Human Rights Watch reported in September that "Algerian authorities have crushed civic space over the past four years." 

Ghebouli harbors some hope that a side effect of renewed relations with Europe might be more respect for human rights.

"Algeria's upcoming term [next January] as member of the United Nations Security Council and also the current term on the Human Rights Council provide Algeria with more leverage, but also impose higher responsibilities in terms of respecting human rights and individual collective liberties," he said.

In September, Clement Nyaletsossi Voule, UN Special Rapporteur on the rights to peaceful assembly and association, concluded a 10-day visit to Algeria with an appeal: "The government must loosen tight restrictions on assemblies and associations to bring laws and practice into conformity with the national constitution and international human rights law."

European-Moroccan nexus

Morocco is the only Maghreb country that shares a land border — the two Spanish enclave cities Ceuta and Melilla — with the European Union. It also is, along with Tunisia, the most frequented departure point for migrants traveling to Europe.

The proximity to Europe "makes some level of cooperation with European officials all but essential," Mohammed Ouhemmou, a researcher at US-based think tank the Migration Policy Institute, wrote in May 2023. 

"Migration is one lever, but Morocco also understood that it can positively change its image by being a multilateral partner on climate issues and with renewable energy," said Werenfels of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Furthermore, by signing the US-brokered normalization agreement with Israel, in exchange for US recognition of Rabat's claims to the phosphate and rare earths in the Western Sahara in 2020, Morocco became even more attractive for Europe as a future supplier.

Yet, this new alliance also increased the gap to neighboring Algeria, which supports the Polisario Front representing the native Sahrawi people in the Western Sahara. In 2021, Algeria cut diplomatic ties with Morocco.

"Also, EU-relations with Morocco went cold after Qatargate," Matjaz Nemec told DW. Qatargate is an ongoing political scandal that started in 2022 after allegations that European Parliament officials were illegally influenced by the governments of Qatar, Morocco and Mauritania.

In turn, Morocco rejected most European aid offers, including from Germany, after last month's devastating earthquake, though no official reason was given for this.

"It has taken Europe a long time to realize that what the Maghreb countries want is bilateral policies, they prefer this to dealing with Europeans collectively, as they can pit Europeans against one another," said Werenfels. 

European-Tunisian nexus

"In Tunisia, all eyes are on President Kais Saied," Uta Staschewski, who leads the Tunis office of the German Hanns Seidel Foundation, told DW.

Saied, who clinched a democratic victory in 2019, launched into a bold power consolidation in 2021 and has steered the nation with an increasingly firm hand ever since.

However, in light of the growing European dissent about rising migration from Tunisia, the European Commission signed a deal with Tunisia in summer 2023. EU Commission head Ursula von der Leyen had proposed an economic aid package for Tunisia's ailing economy worth €900 million ($970 million), plus €150 million in immediate budget assistance, and a further €105 million for border management and anti-smuggling activities.

However, in early October, Saied complained that the first payment of €60 million was "charity money" and resembled "colonial interferences."

The European Commission nevertheless confirmed the transfer of the money to Tunisia. This is remarkable as the transfer took place despite the fact that the new load initially required reforms set by the International Monetary Fund.

"In summer we signed a deal with Tunisia worth more than €1 billion of European taxpayers' money, but when we ask questions and when the European Parliament tried to travel there to check the situation on the ground, the commission's delegation was rejected," Nemec told DW.

"Kais Saied has declined European financial contributions and dismissed the parliamentary delegation, potentially to underscore notions of autonomy, national security and national pride," Staschewski added.

"The impact of this signal ought to be given considerable attention, as it projects an image of strength and independence in interaction with international entities and this goes down well with the population and strongly supports the identity of the new Tunisia."

Edited by: Ben Knight