Seventeen EU countries have announced that they will expel Russian diplomats. Yet how sustainable is solidarity with the UK — and what other measures could come next? Bernd Riegert reports from Brussels.
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European Council President Donald Tusk realized Monday was not the best day to announce the expulsion of Russian diplomats. Russia is currently mourning the deaths of dozens of people in a massive shopping mall fire in Siberia. Therefore, Tusk delivered a short statement in Russian: "We are taking steps against the Russian government and not against the Russian people. Our hearts and our thoughts are with you."
After Tusk's announcement, several EU diplomats acknowledged that the timing was unfortunate. But, they added, once the coordinated step of expelling Russian diplomats from embassies and consulates in more than 20 countries worldwide had been set in motion, it was impossible to stop it.
EU leaders are proud of the successful coordination of the bloc's 14 original member states to expel a number of Russian diplomats in the wake of the Kremlin's reported poisoning of a former double agent and his daughter on British soil.
EU diplomats pointed to their ability to assemble a coalition of the willing – which even includes the USA, Canada and Australia – just days after pronouncing solidarity with the United Kingdom at its recent EU summit. Italy and Hungary, too, generally known for opposition to stronger measures against Russia, have decided to get on board.
Austria and Greece, on the other hand, have refused to expel anyone. Both the right-wing government in Vienna and the left-wing government in Athens have greater economic interests in Russia, as well as closer ideological ties to President Vladimir Putin than most other EU governments.
By Tuesday afternoon, a number of other EU states jumped on board the moving train, announcing that they, too, would expel Russian diplomats. By now some 17 of the EU's 28 member states, including the UK, are on board.
Theresa May welcomes decision to expel Russian diplomats
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EU candidate countries Macedonia and Albania are also part of the group. Ukraine has announced the expulsion of 14 diplomats; only the USA and UK will expel more. All of the EU's largest member states – including Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland – are standing by the UK.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May proudly told the House of Commons that the EU was standing by her side in the decision, and indeed, the EU has displayed an unusual amount of solidarity on this foreign policy issue.
The United Kingdom, however, is not the only country affected by Russia's aggressive policies; a number of other EU member states have been targeted as well. The German government made a point of mentioning Russian cyberattacks on government servers as part of its own justification for expelling Russian diplomats.
"I have today withdrawn the accreditation of seven staff of the Russian mission to NATO. I will also deny the pending accreditation request for three others," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told a press conference in Brussels. "This will send a clear message to Russia that there are costs and consequences for their unacceptable pattern of behavior."
Stoltenberg underlined that Russia had exhibited a pattern of disregarding the sovereignty of other nations, going back to the illegal annexation of Ukraine's region of the Crimea in 2014.
The poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal has caused a standoff between Russia and the UK. Russia has denied knowledge of the poisoning but that hasn't stopped other countries taking action.
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Ex-Russian spy poisoned
On March 4, former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his 33-year-old daughter were found slumped on a bench outside a shopping center in the British town of Salisbury. Authorities said both were in a critical condition after being exposed to an "unknown substance." Skripal was a former general of Russian military intelligence who had been convicted in Russia for spying for the UK.
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Russia denies involvement
Russia denied any knowledge of the poisoning, which echoed the murder of former Russian spy Alexander Litvinenko in 2006. Litvinenko was poisoned with radioactive polonium-210. "We see that such a tragic situation happened," Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on March 6. "But we don't have information about what could be the cause, what this person did."
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Nerve agent suspected
On March 7, British police said they suspected a very rare nerve agent was behind the poisoning of Skripal. "This is being treated as a major incident involving attempted murder by administration of a nerve agent," Metropolitan Police assistant commissioner Mark Rowley said in a statement. "I can also confirm that we believe the two people originally who became unwell were targeted specifically."
British police said more than 21 people had sought medical treatment as a result of the nerve agent attack. On March 8, UK Home Secretary Amber Rudd told the House of Commons that enormous resources were being used to determine who was behind the attack. Rudd called the use of a chemical nerve agent on British soil a "brazen and reckless" act that would be answered with all possible force.
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May gives Russia a deadline
On March 12, British Prime Minister Theresa May told lawmakers it was "highly likely" Russia was behind the poisoning. May said the Russian government had either ordered the attack or lost control of the Russian-produced chemical nerve agent Novichok. She gave Moscow until midnight on Tuesday to explain its Novichok program to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.
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EU supports UK
On March 13, vice president of the European Commission European Union, Valdis Dombrovskis, said the EU would stand in solidarity with Britain after London accused Russia of being behind the nerve agent attack. When asked if the EU might impose sanctions of Russia if it was agreed Moscow was responsible for the attack, Dombrovskis said: "Of course, the UK can count on EU solidarity in this regard."
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Russia calls UK bluff
Russia failed to respond to May’s midnight deadline for an explanation of its suspected involvement in the poisoning. On March 14, a spokesperson for the Russian Embassy in London said Moscow would not respond "until it receives samples of the chemical substance." May had said a "full range" of retaliatory measures would be considered if Moscow did not give a "credible response" by the deadline.
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UK announces expulsions of diplomats
After Russia failed to give an explanation, May announced on March 14 that the UK would expel 23 Russian diplomats identified as "undeclared intelligence officers." May also said the UK would suspend all high-level bilateral contact with Russia. The biggest expulsions from London in 30 years would "fundamentally degrade Russian intelligence capability for years to come," May said.
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France, Germany, UK, US blame Russia
On March 15, the leaders of France, Germany, the UK and US released a joint statement that demanded "complete disclosure" from Russia saying there is "no plausible alternative" to Moscow's involvement. The statement said the attack using "a military-grade nerve agent, of a type developed by Russia" constituted "an assault on UK sovereignty" that threatened "the security of us all."
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Russia expels British diplomats
In retaliation to the UK, Russia said it would also expel 23 British diplomats, giving them the same one-week deadline. Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it would also close the British Council in Russia, and might take further measures against Britain in the event of more "hostile steps" from London. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, had said Moscow would "of course" respond with expulsions.
"It's complete drivel, rubbish, nonsense that somebody in Russia would allow themselves to do such a thing ahead of elections and the World Cup," Putin said on March 19. "It's quite obvious that if it were a military-grade nerve agent, people would have died on the spot." Putin said Moscow "destroyed all our chemical weapons under international oversight unlike some of our partners."
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UK says Novichok was used
On March 20, UK scientists determined Skripal was poisoned using a little-known nerve agent from a group of chemical compounds known as Novichok. The family of compounds, which were developed in the 1970s and 80s, comprise numerous nerve agents. The Soviets once developed these weapons to circumvent the Chemical Weapons Convention. Novichok-5 and Novichok-7 are supposed to be the most dangerous.
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Mass Russian diplomat expulsions
A number of EU countries teamed together on March 26 and simultaneously announced they would be expelling Russian diplomats. Germany, France, Poland, Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands, Latvia and Ukraine all announced they would be expelling Russian envoys. The US followed suit with the expulsion of 60 Russian diplomats and announced the closure of Moscow's consulate in Seattle.
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Poison on front door
UK police found the highest concentration of the nerve agent on the front door of the Skripal's family home in Salisbury. They believe that is where Skripal and his daughter must have first come into contact with the poison. It was likely mixed in with a "gloopy substance" smeared on the door handle.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AP/F. Augstein
New Novichok victims
In early July, weeks after both Skripals were discharged from the Salisbury hospital, another two people were apparently poisoned with the same substance in the nearby town of Amesbury. A 45-year-old man and a 44-year-old woman were found unconscious and were transported to the same hospital in critical condition.
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What do the expulsions really mean?
Yet there is a lack of unanimity within NATO. Turkey, for instance, refused to undertake punitive measures against Russia. And Russia's NATO representative in Brussels will not be affected by the expulsions.
Russia has called the expulsions an act of "diplomatic war." But the EU and its foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini view the situation in less drastic terms. Representatives say the expulsion of intelligence services agents at Russian embassies is at the very bottom of the escalation scale. One EU diplomat made assurances that no ambassadors would be expelled, nor would embassies be unable to perform their duties.
The same goes for anticipated Russian countermeasures. Although the expulsion of EU embassy and consulate personnel would be considered an act of diplomatic revenge, contacts between Russia and the EU would, nevertheless, remain in place and lines of communication open.
Mixed opinions on effectiveness
Michael Gahler, foreign policy expert from the Christian Democratic bloc of the European Parliament, welcomed the EU's concerted effort. The parliamentarian says he also supports further steps the EU has said it may take, such as issuing further economic sanctions. The EU previously imposed economic sanctions in reaction to Russia's annexation of Crimea as well as Moscow's role in the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.
"By applying sanctions, one makes clear that one is not paying back in kind. Our sanctions were an answer to military aggression against Ukraine. We did not respond likewise. We did not send tanks to Ukraine to confront Russia. We reacted in a civilized manner and we will continue to act in a civilized manner. I think we could do much more in the area of targeted personal sanctions," Gahler told the German radio station Deutschlandfunk.
Gahler suggested one could consider entry bans for wealthy Russians who like to spend time in Paris, London and Berlin but who cooperate with the Putin government at home in Russia: "We could apply a healthy amount of pressure on that front."
Jürgen Trittin, foreign policy expert for the Green Party in Germany's parliament, on the other hand, said that expelling diplomats was the wrong course of action. Trittin told DW: "Putin is just laughing. If you continue along this path you quickly arrive at Cold War 2.0, and I don't think that is very clever. A new cold war won't help in terms of everything we want from Russia and the behavioral changes we seek – whether in Syria, or the stationing of medium-range missiles – rather, it will likely do damage."
Just this month the EU extended existing sanctions against Russia for another six months. The decision required a unanimous vote. Yet EU diplomats will likely view the prospect of achieving similar consensus on new sanctions in response to the poisoning in Salisbury as a much more difficult task.
