European powers have warned Israel against a ground offensive in Lebanon as Israel's military admitted that it was carrying out "limited and targeted ground operations" in the south of the country against Hezbollah,  whose military wing is classified as a terrorist organization by the US, Germany and many other countrie. The Iran-backed militia also has a political arm. 

"A significant Israeli ground offensive would have devastating humanitarian consequences and could lead to a protracted conflict," read a statement by the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Canada, "and must be averted." 

Fears have gripped Lebanon that limited incursions targeting "key Hezbollah strongholds," as the Israeli military put it, may escalate into an invasion of southern Lebanon, which Hezbollah dominates.

On Monday, Lebanon's parliament extended its term for two years. Elections, originally scheduled for May this year, were postponed as the parliament considered it unrealistic to organize a national vote during times of war and large-scale displacement.

Two weeks ago, when the US and Israel started bombing Iran, Hezbollah fired at Israel to avenge the killing of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, despite calls from Lebanon's government not to make the country a party to the US-Israeli war with Iran. 

European leaders have been calling for Hezbollah to disarm. Now they worry about a mammoth humanitarian crisis inside Lebanon and a possible impact on Europe if Israel invades. The country has been reeling from a debilitating economic crisis for years.

So what are the concerns of European leaders? And what leverage do they have to end the conflict?

"We've seen [a cycle of statements] from Europeans, asking, begging the Israelis not to escalate, not to widen their offensive, whether it's Lebanon, Gaza or elsewhere. But it never really amounts to much more than a polite request," Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told DW.

'The migration issue' 

The biggest concern for European leaders is the widening of the conflict in the Middle East and the instability and chaos that could bring — including displacement from Lebanon and more migration to Europe.

"There's a real concern that actually this is precisely the kind of situation that pushes more people from the Middle East to look to flee the region and head to Europe," Barnes-Dacey said. 

The possibility of sectarian clashes inside Lebanon has also risen. Most of the displaced people from the Lebanese regions under attack are Shiite and are seeking refuge in areas dominated by Sunni Muslims and Christians. The displaced Shiites are increasingly seen as a threat by Sunnis and Christians: Hezbollah is a Shiite militia, after all, and the presence of people who could be viewed as Hezbollah supporters makes communities a potential target for Israeli strikes. 

"The Israeli army is talking of going up and even beyond potentially the Litani River and depopulating that area," Barnes-Dacey said in reference to southern Lebanon. "There's a risk that this fuels internal conflict within Lebanon, pitting different communities against each other. Obviously, Syria sits alongside Lebanon with its own vulnerability. So all of these combined elements are very worrying for Europe. And obviously Europe has its eye on the migration issue." 

There's also a risk to peacekeepers based in southern Lebanon. The observers of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have occasionally seen fire themselves in the clashes between Israel and Hezbollah. They're also operating in areas which Israel has told civilians to vacate.

"It is unacceptable that peacekeepers performing Security Council-mandated tasks are targeted," UNIFIL said in a statement on March 6, two days after it called on both Israel and Hezbollah to show restraint. 

 

Europe's economic leverage over Israel 

Experts say the real leverage European governments hold over Israel lies in their economic ties. 

Could the European Union partially suspend the EU–Israel Association Agreement and revive discussions over trade restrictions on Israel that it was considering to stop Israel from its military campaign in Gaza in 2025?

"Obviously, the key card that Europeans have been unwilling to play over the course of the last two years when it comes to Israel is the economic card. The EU is Israel's largest economic trading partner. And yet Europe has never been willing to put that on the table," Barnes-Dacey said. 

"I think if the Europeans wanted to put serious pressure on Israel to not widen this offensive, they would have to think about putting material pressure on Israel," he said. "That is taking political and economic steps to make the country feel the squeeze and a sense of international isolation for moving forward with this kind of offensive." 

What Europe is doing to help Lebanon

An EU spokesperson recently highlighted the gravity of the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Lebanon. On Wednesday, the UN stated that more than one million people have been displaced in the country during the current conflict.

Last week, the EU promised to send relief to Lebanon during a video call with Middle Eastern leaders after families fled their homes in Hezbollah-dominated parts of the country including Dahiyeh, a suburb of the capital, Beirut. 

An EU spokesperson told DW that the first tranche of supplies had already been flown to Beirut from Copenhagen. 

"Relief material has been delivered. Different things, like medical kits, shelter material, recreation kits for children," Eva Hrncirova, an EU spokesperson, said. 

The EU has allocated a €100 million ($115 million) aid package to address the displacement of Lebanese people and is working alongside trusted partners on the ground such as UNICEF. 

"The people of Lebanon can count on the European Union," said Hadja Lahbib, the European commissioner for equality, preparedness and crisis management. 

But any support would be limited to relief. France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom expressed grave concern at the escalating situation and called for "meaningful engagement by Israeli and Lebanese representatives to negotiate a sustainable political solution."

They did not spell out any strategy or plan on how these talks could materialize. 

Edited by: Carla Bleiker

Editor's note: On March 19, 2026, the number of displaced people in Lebanon has been corrected to more than one million in accordance with UN statements