With the final round of qualifiers upon us, it's time for fans around Europe to get the calculators out. The Nations League has added a fresh layer of complication this time but how do things stand and what's next?
Image: AFP/P. Faith
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Football fans are often prone to bouts of misty eyed reminiscence: the last-minute equalizer, the long-retired hero, the dramatic derby victory. But over the next ten days or so, in a frankly bizarre turn of events, a few might cast an affectionate eye back to the relative simplicity of European Championship qualifying processes of old.
The four-yearly continental tournament was, until 2016, a 16-team affair where qualification and the tournament itself were generally fairly straightforward. The waters have now been muddied a little by the expansion to 24 teams combined with the multi-venue nature of EURO 2020 and the influence of the Nations League on the path to qualification.
Let's start with the easy bit. The top two teams in each of the ten groups qualify automatically. Given that there are no automatic host qualifiers this time around, that's 20 of the 24 teams.
Here's where the main change comes. Unlike previous editions, the playoffs for the remaining four spots will be determined not by qualifying but by Nations League performance in 2018-19.
Still with us? Good. There were 16 teams who won their Nations League group. All are guaranteed at least a playoff spot in March 2020. In the instance that one of those has already qualified, their spot will go to the next highest ranked team in the Nations League.
Once those 16 teams have been determined, they will be divided in to four "playoff paths". There will then be eight one-legged semifinals, hosted by the team with the higher Nations League rank. These will then set up four finals, at a venue decided by a draw. The winners of those four games will secure the last four tournament berths.
So where do we stand ahead of the last round of qualifiers, between November 14 and 18?
Already qualified
Belgium, Italy, Russia, Poland, Ukraine and Spain are the six sides to have booked their spot at the tournament.
Almost there
In Group A, England are almost over the line, while the winner of the Czech Republic vs. Kosovo match is likely to join them. In Group B, Portugal are favorites to edge out Serbia. Germany will qualify from Group C if they beat Belarus and Northern Ireland do not beat the Netherlands, or if they draw and Northern Ireland lose. The Netherlands will almost certainly join them. While Group D is wide open at present, Croatia just need a draw against Slovakia to make it through Group E.
Sweden will join Spain as Group F qualifiers with a win against Romania. In Group G, Austria need just a point against North Macedonia. Turkey and France require a draw against Iceland and a win over Moldova respectively to punch their tickets while Group I is done and dusted after Russia and Belgium's qualifications.
Jadon Sancho's England are close to sealing qualificationImage: picture-alliance/AP Photo/A. Davy
Finally, the story of qualifying so far is probably Finland. The Finns can reach a first major tournament with a win against Lichenstein, but will only need a draw if Bosnia and Herzegovina fail to beat Italy. If Bosnia and Herzegovina lose and Armenia fail to beat Greece, they will qualify regardless.
Playoffs
Nearly there now. According to the website of tournament organizers UEFA, this is how things stand on the four Nations League 'paths' ahead of the final round.
Path 1: Switzerland, who could still make it conventionally, have the playoffs as a backup and will likely be joined by Iceland and two from Bulgaria, Israel and Romania, depending on a draw, the other will go down Path 3. The Swiss and Iceland would play their semifinals at home in this circumstance.
Path 2: As it stands, this will feature Bosnia and Herzegovina, Wales, Slovakia and Northern Ireland. But all have varying degrees of hope of making it automatically.
There's still a chance Northern Ireland could make it ahead of GermanyImage: Reuters/J. Sibley
Path 3: Scotland, Norway, Serbia, Bulgaria/Israel/Romania. For Scotland, this is the only possible route to qualification while Serbia and Norway still have a slim chance of making it automatically.
Path 4: Georgia, North Macedonia, Kosovo, Belarus. The Georgians and the Belarussians will definitely go down this route while the other two have an outside chance of qualification, in the North Macedonian case it's very far outside.
The draw
But before the playoffs, the finals draw will be made in Bucharest (one of the tournament host cities) on November 30 with only 20 of the 24 entrants confirmed. Teams from one of the 12 countries with a host have to be drawn in certain groups. But let's save that one for another time.
Eagle on the chest: Germany football kits over the years
Germany have unveiled their jerseys for next summer's Euro 2020. DW takes a look back at previous efforts - from the monochrome number worn last year to the one West Germany wore when winning their first World Cup.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/adidas
Horizontal stripes
Aren't horizontal stripes supposed to make you look fat? Then again, that's not a problem for members of the Geman national team. Assuming they are fit next summer (and are selected by coach Joachim Löw), this is what Timo Werner, Serge Gnabry and Nico Schulz will be wearing at Euro 2020, or Euro 2021 as it's likely to be. And no, they aren't all wearing captain's armbands on both arms!
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/adidas
Distinct lack of color
This one won't go down as one of the favorites, but that has nothing to do with the aesthetics of the garment. This was the kit Germany wore in their disastrous bid to defend their World Cup in Russia in 2018. Toni Kroos, Mesut Özil and Mats Hummels were part of a team that disappointed an entire nation. It would also turn out to be Özil's last tournament before he ended his national team career.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/adidas
World Cup winner
The 2014 jersey was inspired by the jersey that Germany wore in in the 1990 World Cup in Italy. Apparently the three shades of red are meant to represent the black red and gold of the German flag. Instead of the traditional black shorts Germany went with white. Mario Götze will be forever held dearly in German fans' hearts for his winning goal in extra time of the final against Argentina.
Image: Reuters
Men in Black
Prior to World War II, Germany played in black, and the color was brought back for the alternate jersey at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. Germany finished third in South Africa, partly thanks to a Sami Khedira (right) goal against Uruguay in the match for third place. Per Mertesacker also looks pumped. Wait a minute… aren't players meant to hate playing in third-place consolation games?
Image: AP
Summer fairy tale
The 2006 World Cup in Germany is remembered in the host nation as the "summer fairy tale." With Michael Ballack in midfield, Germany played more attractive football than they had in years. Italy proved to be Germany's nemesis though, knocking them out with two goals late in extra time of their semifinal. As for the jersey, just a splash of gold and red broke up the white - plus the black trim.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/M.Egerton
France 1998
While keeping the traditional mainly white home kit, the jersey Jürgen Klinsmann and Co. wore next door in France in 1998 featured the horizontal black, red and gold stripes of Germany's flag across the chest. Another new element was the three stars above the eagle for Germany's three World Cup titles. It didn't end well for Germany though, as they fell to Croatia in the quarterfinals.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/O.Berg
Euro 96 champions!
Oliver Bierhoff's golden goal against the Czech Republic sealed the Euro 96 title for Germany at Wembley. The jersey Germany wore when "football came home" to England differed from its predecessors because it featured a white eagle on a black crest.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AFP
Upside down in the United States
Lothar Matthäus and coach Berti Vogts didn't really have a good time in the United States in 1994. The tournament, which saw Steffen Effenberg sent home early, was largely one to forget, with Germany losing to Bulgaria in the quarterfinals.. As for the jersey, one can only wonder who decided it was a good idea to turn the colors of the German flag upside down…
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/O.Berg
Italia 1990
West Germany started wearing this jersey in the 1988 European championship, which the still divided country hosted. Two years later, West and East Germany were just months from becoming one country, and players from both sides featured in the national team that won the 1990 World Cup in Italy.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/F. Leonhardt
Green
West Germany and Germany have often worn green as their alternate kit. Captain Karl-Heinz Rummenigge and his teammates made it to the final against Argentina in Mexico City's Azteka Stadium in 1986. Rummenigge scored, but his side were second-best to an Argentine team led by a Diego Maradona at the height of his powers. Argentina won 3-2 to hoist the World Cup for a second time.
Image: Getty Images/Bongarts
1974 World Cup
In the 1970s West Germany jerseys were an all-but all-white affair. One notable feature of the jersey worn here by Gerd Müller and Wolfgang Overrath was an eagle that is somewhat bigger than the one on more recent kits. This classic jersey is remembered fondly for the fact that Müller and the rest of the Nationalmannschaft earned the right to lift the World Cup in 1974 in Munich.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Baumann
Miracle of Bern
Similar to the 1974 jerseys, were the ones worn by captain Fritz Walter, Horst Eckel and the rest of West Germany in 1954. West Germany upset the magic Magyars led by the legendary Ferenc Puskas in the World Cup final 3-2. The match was played on a waterlogged pitch in the Swiss capital. This World Cup title, West Germany's first, would be dubbed "the miracle of Bern."
