"Of course, the ESC doesn't take place in a vacuum but instead, in a concrete political and social environment," commented Thomas Schreiber, entertainment coordinator for Germany's ARD public broadcasting network, in an interview with eurovision.de. For months, Russia's effect on that environment has been a matter of concern to the European Broadcasting Union, the umbrella organization for the world's biggest music competition.

Anti-gay propaganda and new laws that restrict the rights of sexual minorities in Putin's Russia prompted an unusual step. The EBU's board of directors sent letters to two of the television stations responsible for ESC coverage in Russia, seeking guarantees for the safety of participants, journalists and fans. Normally, the security situation is checked only after it is known which country will host the following edition of Eurovision, rather than in advance.

Meanwhile, discrimination against gays in Russia - which has received heavy media coverage, also in the run-up to the Winter Olympics in Sochi - is no longer the top concern. As one ESC fan wrote in the prinz-esc.de blog, "The worst thing that can happen is if Russia wins and hosts the next ESC in Crimea."

Punishing Russia?

To place first, Russia needs the votes of national juries, but the country would also need TV viewers from around Europe to call in and vote for it. Moscow's controversial foreign policy is sure to repel some.

Representing Russia are two 17-year-old twins, Anastasia and Maria Tolmachevy, this year's youngest ESC competitors. Adorable with long blond hair and cheerful faces, they can sing, too. In 2006 they won a version of Eurovision for kids.

"Every Russian entry for 2014 was going to be seen in an especially critical light, so it's probably not a bad strategy to send in a simple and innocently packaged 'Message of Love' - a kind of disarming entry," wrote author Oliver Lepold at prinz-esc.de, one of the most detailed sources of ESC information in German.

The country's critics say that the lovely teens should nonetheless be taken as official representatives of Russia - and deserve no votes or even boos when they take the stage.

That would go too far, objects fellow Prinz blogger Matthias Braitinger, writing, "On stage are two girls who aren't part of the Kremlin and bear no responsibility for the current political situation."

Balancing act

The EBU made it clear from the outset that Russia would not be banned from the contest this year. Meanwhile, the Russian delegation has arrived in Copenhagen, and the twins are busy rehearsing before their first performance on May 6. They'll try to secure a spot in the finale perched on a huge see-saw - a balancing act in every sense of the term.

Members of the Russian delegation have so far declined to comment on events in eastern Ukraine, telling journalists that they are participating in a music competition and not a political talk show.

Not everyone is prophesying defeat for Russia due to political tensions - on the contrary, says ESC expert and journalist Jan Feddersen. "The Eastern European, or to put it better, the post-Soviet conflict is being met - in Germany, for example - with what some commentators are misconstruing as rationalization of Putin's actions. As such, there's no guarantee that Russia's entry will be chalked up negatively to Putin's regime."

As to whether other countries will seek to use the ESC to show solidarity with Ukraine, Feddersen is also skeptical - saying the music itself will probably ultimately be decisive. Furthermore, he adds, Ukraine's 21-year-old Mariya Yaremchuk long supported the country's deposed president, Viktor Yanukovych, and his party. It wasn't until blood was flowing in Kyiv that she changed course and donated blood herself at Maidan square.

Mariya has told journalists in Copenhagen that she is aware of her responsibility in representing Ukraine this year.

Weak songs, strong show

Politics aside, both the Russian and Ukrainian entries are seen as long-shots for the finale - although both countries are betting on elaborate stage shows and effects. The Russian twins' see-saw morphs into a sailboat, while a lithe dancer propelled by a gymnastic wheel will serve as backup to the attractive Ukrainian brunette.

Musically, long-time German ESC commentator Peter Urban dismisses the Russian song, "Shine," as "boring." He and Feddersen are convinced that if Russia fails to place well this year, it will have little to do with politics.

When it comes to judging Russia's entries now and in the future, Feddersen would urge voters to remember a simple truth: "In Russia, just as in Belarus and Moldavia, there are many people for whom the ESC represents a point of contact to the freer parts of Europe."