There is renewed pressure on European leaders and the wider European Union (EU) to revise their stance toward Syria — even if that amounts to resuming ties with and legitimizing a leader on whose watch millions of civilians were killed and displaced, and massive human rights violations were committed. 

As immigration continues to be a top political issue in Europe, due in part the rising popularity of the far right, experts say some sort of reconciliation between the government of Bashar Assad and Brussels appears to be an unpalatable, but inescapable policy shift. 

Italy, under the far-right, anti-immigrant party the Brothers of Italy, has taken the lead and decided to resume diplomatic ties with Syria. 

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma said that "Europe will eventually have to follow,'' and normalize relations with Assad.

"It will not be soon, but it will come," he told DW.  

Italy to send envoy to Damascus

In July, eight European states wrote a letter to Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, calling on him to appoint an EU-Syria envoy. "Syrians continue to leave in large numbers, putting additional strain on neighboring countries, in a period when tension in the area is running high, risking new refugee waves," the letter stated. 

Italy was among the letter’s signatories. Now, it has moved to resume formal ties with Damascus. Stefano Ravagnan, currently the foreign ministry's special envoy for Syria, has been named as ambassador. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said the idea was to "turn the spotlight" back on Syria.

Italy cut had previously ties with Syria in 2012, along with Germany, France and others in response to Assad's role in the Syrian civil war.

While the Italian appointee is unlikely to present his credentials to Assad, and in that sense Rome will continue to follow the EU consensus, the decision is rather aimed at steering European policy in favor of opening up to the Syrian government. 

"The Italians are surely hoping to see other European countries follow their lead, since they’re trying to build momentum for an adjustment of EU policy," said Aron Lund, a Middle East expert with the New York-based think tank The Century Foundation. 

"I think over time, pressure to re-engage with authorities in Damascus will build," he added. 

Germany to step up deportations

European leaders hope that, in exchange for the normalization of relations, Assad might prevent more Syrians from fleeing the country to the EU, and make it easier to deport Syrians whose asylum applications EU members states have rejected.

Sending refugees and asylum seekers to so-called safe zones Syria is still considered unsafe by credible actors tracking the situation in the country. 

Nonetheless, in June, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated that his government supported the deportation of Syrians who were convicted offenders. 

"I am outraged when someone who has sought protection here then commits the most serious crimes," Scholz said after a policeman in Mannheim was killed by an Afghan asylum seeker. "Such offenders should be deported — even if they come from Syria or Afghanistan." 

Last week a Syrian man, whose asylum application was rejected, was arrested for stabbing and killing three people in Solingen, Germany. In response, Scholz reaffirmed his June commitment to toughen deportation measures.

A gradual shift has been underway

Scholz was hardly the first to back such a move. In 2021, Denmark's Social Democratic Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen decided to revoke the permanent residence permits of Syrian refugees hailing from the Damascus region, deeming it safe for returns. 

Bernd Parusel, a migration expert at the Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies, said that while Sweden’s conservative government, which rules with the support of the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats, does not have an official policy to push out asylum seekers, it has made it difficult for them to stay. 

It has "tried to limit residency permits, only offering temporary and not permanent residencies and made family reunification more difficult. And, it tries to deter new arrivals." But that policy not only applied to Syrian asylum seekers, he told DW. 

Syria is still unsafe for returns 

According to the European Union Agency for Asylum, 1.14 million asylum applications were submitted last year in the EU and other European countries, including Norway and Switzerland. Syrians continue to be the largest group of asylum seekers, with just over 181,000 applying for asylum in Europe. 

"In 2023, Syrians submitted significantly more applications," the agency stated. Numbers were up by 38% compared to 2022, it said, adding that "this represents just under half of the number of applications lodged in 2015."

In a recent report the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights depicted, "an extremely bleak picture of the situation returnees face once back in Syria." 

It said many who returned to Syria fled again to countries such as Turkey or Lebanon and that, "the overall conditions in Syria still do not permit safe, dignified and sustainable returns."

And yet two recent court decisions in EU member countries could strengthen the argument for deporting or at least rejecting certain asylum appeals: Last week, a Dutch court rejected the asylum application of a Syrian woman. Last month, a German court ruled that there was no real danger to civilians in Syria as it pronounced its verdict in the case of a Syrian smuggler who claimed protected status. 

So far Brussels is sticking to its official policy of calling for free and fair elections and a democratic transition of power in Syria. Landis expects that the bloc will probably wait for a cue from the US  to determine if and when it wants to revise its own policy. But there are ample signs that the stance in several EU member states is already shifting. 

Edited by: Maren Sass