For the past two years, around 15,000 uniformed UN personnel - together with approximately 9,000 African Union troops - have maintained a modicum of security in the war-torn region of Sudan.

The African Union (AU) has already renewed its mandate for UNAMID, as the joint force is known. But the United Nations' part of the deal is set to expire at the end of the month.

UNAMID was created in 2007, after fighting between Arab Janjaweed militias, backed by the Sudanese government, and rebel groups from non-Arab tribes claimed hundreds of thousands of lives and left 2.7 million people displaced from their homes.

Among the atrocities committed in the region were also the systematic rapes of tens of thousands of women and girls.

On Thursday, July 30, the UN Security Council is set to decide whether to extend the UNAMID mandate authorized under Resolution 1769.

Theoretically, the UN could decide to turn the whole operation over to African Union troops. But that, warn experts, could lay the foundation for a catastrophe.

"Absolutely a necessity"

The African Union had as many as 7,000 peacekeeping troops in the region from 2004 to 2006, but they proved inadequate for the task of keeping the warring factions apart and protecting the civilian population and foreign aid workers.

Experts say the UN is needed to prevent a repeat of past human-rights tragedies.

"It's absolutely a necessity," Fouad Hikmat, Horn of Africa project director for the international NGO International Crisis Group, told Deutsche Welle. "People in the refugee camps as well as humanitarian groups still need protection, and the government's not able to do that."

The German Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development echoed those sentiments.

"An extension of UNAMID is necessary in order to protect the civilian population from attacks and support the work of international organizations," the ministry said in a statement issued to Deutsche Welle.

But even with the UN present, the security situation in Darfur is tenuous. On July 3, two aid workers from Ireland and Uganda were kidnapped in the northern Darfur city of Kutum.

Despite intense efforts to free them, the pair are still in captivity, and it is unclear who carried out the abductions.

Security and volleyball

People who have worked in Darfur helping to alleviate suffering in the region say the security situation would be far worse without the UN.

German architect Joern Reichel, for example, spent parts of 2007 in southern Darfur building emergency hospitals clinics and other facilities to deal with the massive influx of refugees.

"The United Nations troops were the ones actually responsible for our security," Reichel told Deutsche Welle. "The contact we had with AU troops was mostly playing volleyball in their camp. It was my impression that they were badly equipped, poorly funded and lacked the political will to intervene between the warring parties."

Reichel, who was employed by aid organizations CARE and the Johanniter Unfallhilfe, also paints a concisely bleak picture of what would happen if UN troops were to leave.

"It would be total chaos," he said.

The German government apparently agrees. Earlier in July, the parliament, the Bundestag, voted by an overwhelming margin to extend the mandate for 250 Bundeswehr soldiers to take part in the UNAMID mission - pending an extension by the UN.

And the Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development is calling for more to be done.

"Crucial for the success of the peace mission in Darfur is a political solution, i.e. the resumption and conclusion of peace negotiations between rebel groups and the Sudanese government and the inclusion of all relevant social groups, including women's groups," the ministry said in its statement.

But for the moment, such a political solution remains wishful thinking.

Few prospects of peace

Although the UNAMID forces have been able to stop the worst sorts of atrocities in Darfur, international efforts to secure lasting calm in the region have thus far failed.

"The UNAMID mandate is not about conflict resolution," Hikmat said. "The peace process is stalled, and I don't see it going anywhere."

In March 2009, the International Criminal Court in The Hague officially indicted Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir on charges of genocide, crimes against humanity and murder. But some critics say the indictment is one-sided and does more to hinder than encourage a lasting peace between Bashir's governments and its allies and the various rebel groups.

Also in March, one of the main rebel groups, the Justice and Equality Movement suspended participation in peace talks, demanding that the Sudanese government release political prisoners and reverse plans to ban all international NGOs.

In such a situation of stalemate, UNAMID forces can do little more than contain violence and abuse in Darfur, while the unhappy status quo in the region looks as though it will persist for quite some time.

Author: Jefferson Chase

Editor: Michael Knigge