In the declaration of principles signed under Qatari mediation in Doha on Saturday, the Congolese government and the AFC/M23 rebellion affirmed their commitment to seeking a peaceful resolution to the conflict through negotiation, in line with the principles of the DRC Constitution, the African Union and United Nations charters.

The document commits both sides to a permanent ceasefire, a ban on aerial, ground, maritime, and lake-based attacks, as well as acts of sabotage, hate propaganda, and any attempt to gain new positions by force.

They also agreed to refrain from any actions that could undermine the process.

"What makes this text a significant step forward is its link to a clear timeline," said Yvon Muya, professor at the School of Conflict Studies at Saint Paul University in Ottawa, Canada. "Implementation is expected by July 29, and negotiations for a comprehensive peace agreement are set to begin on August 8," Muya told DW, pointing out that "this creates political pressure, even if everything remains fragile."

The declaration took effect immediately on its signing, and provides for the start of direct negotiations for a comprehensive peace agreement in the first week of August. These talks are to align with the Washington agreement between the DRC and Rwanda, which is to take effect next week. The goal is to reach and sign this comprehensive peace agreement within a month.

Respect for territorial integrity and restoration of state authority

Another key point acknowledged by both sides is the restoration of state authority throughout the national territory. This implies the return of state institutions — the army, police, judiciary, and civil administration — to areas currently under AFC/M23 rebel control.

"One of the most important clauses in the declaration of intent is the emphasis on extending the control and authority of the state over its entire territory," noted US Special Envoy for Africa Massad Boulos, who attended the signing ceremony.

The upcoming agreement will need to define the modalities and timeline for restoring state authority across the country.

But despite this optimism, divergences surfaced just hours after the signing. Kinshasa claimed it had secured a commitment for the rebels to withdraw from occupied zones.

"This declaration takes into account the red lines we have always defended, particularly the non-negotiable withdrawal of AFC/M23 from occupied areas," wrote government spokesperson Patrick Muyaya on X.

The rebellion quickly responded, accusing the Kinshasa government of bad faith. "AFC/M23 will not retreat, not even by one meter. We will stay where we are," said Benjamin Mbonimpa, head of the rebel delegation in Doha.

The proof is in the implentation

According to Congolese political analyst Christian Moleka, the main challenge — both with the Washington agreement between the DRC and Rwanda and the Doha deal — remains implementation.

"Will this be different from previous agreements in terms of sustained implementation? The question is: Is there political will to see this through to the end?"

Moleka expressed doubt about whether all sides genuinely wanted lasting peace, and whether the monitoring mechanisms will work better this time than in the past.

Signatories pledged to adopt confidence-building measures to reassure the Congolese population and foster a favorable climate for dialogue.

The declaration highlights the urgent need to implement these measures, including the creation — with support from the International Committee of the Red Cross — of a framework that, in compliance with Congolese law, would allow for the release of prisoners or detainees identified by both sides.

It also provides for the safe, voluntary, and dignified return of refugees and displaced persons.

Monitoring mechanism still needed

However, not everything has been settled. The document includes no penalties for breaches of the agreement. Most notably, it makes no mention of justice mechanisms — a major point still far from resolution. Even the Washington agreement, which was to take effect on June 27, has yet to show tangible progress.

A monitoring and verification mechanism is yet to be established to define the terms of the ceasefire and ensure implementation of the declaration.

"On paper, the timeline is clear, and the parties state their intentions, but the feasibility of this calendar depends on multiple factors," said Muya, outlining some of those factors as the sincerity of commitments, pressure from regional actors, and, most importantly, the ability to turn principles into action on the ground.

The US, particularly under the Trump administration, has exerted pressure for a durable peace agreement in the DRC and the Great Lakes region.

According to Qatar, "the responsibility for implementing this agreement rests primarily with both parties, namely the government in Kinshasa and the AFC/M23 rebel coalition."

Edited by Ben Knight