India has seen over 300,000 new COVID-19 infections every day for a week. Exponential growth could become a problem — not just for India: but for the world, as well.
The chessboard formula is causing concern not only for epidemiologists in India, but worldwideImage: picture alliance/WILDLIFE
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The number of newly infected people in India is shocking: On Thursday, the country reported more than 386,000 new infections daily ― the highest total worldwide.
The situation has been exacerbated by the new "double mutant," B.1.617, which combines two mutations in the spike protein. Since the beginning of April, the number of infections has exploded.
In the medium term, this exponential growth could become a problem not only for India and its neighboring countries, but for the rest of the world, as well.
What does exponential growth mean in relation to the coronavirus?
To illustrate exponential growth, there is a very appropriate legend from India of timeless validity: A long time ago, the ruler Shihram tyrannized his subjects and great misery reigned.
In order to make Shihram aware of the grievances, the wise brahmin Sissa invented the game of chess, with its 64 squares, in which the king is the most important character, but without the support of the pawns and the other pieces, he can do nothing. The king liked the game and wanted to reward the inventor. The clever Sissa wished that on the first square of a chessboard a grain of wheat be placed, on the second square double, i.e., two, on the third again double, or four, and so on.
The emperor felt offended in view of the brahmin's supposed modesty, since he was not yet aware of the extent of the wish. It took days for the court arithmeticians to calculate the required amount of wheat grains. In the end, the overseer of the granary informed the king that so much wheat could not be raised in the whole realm.
The clever brahmin would have had to get what would amount to about 730 billion tons of wheat, roughly a thousand times the world wheat harvest of last year.
What does the chessboard formula mean for the pandemic?
If we apply the chessboard formula to the pandemic, this would correspond to a contagion rate (reproduction number R) of 2: Each infected person would infect two other people.
India is home to about 1.34 billion people. Nearly 19 million are currently infected with the coronavirus. Fortunately, the reproduction number R for COVID-19 is usually much lower than in the chessboard formula. In India, it is currently 1.32, according to a report by the daily India Today.
The value is highly dependent on people's behavior and social factors: whether they maintain distance and strict hygiene, whether they live in crowded conditions, and under what circumstances they work. In India, for example, the value R was much higher (1.83) during the first wave in March 2020 than it is now.
Still, at the current rate, the number of infected people is expected to double quickly.
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More infected, more dead
As the number of infections rises exponentially, the number of deaths is also increasing rapidly. To date, more than 200,000 people in India have died of COVID-19. The mortality rate is 1.14%. So if 1.14% of the 18 million people currently infected die, that would be another 205,200 deaths. If the number of infected people doubles, that's an additional 410,400 deaths.
And, as the coronavirus doesn't stop at national borders, the B.1.617 variant and the exponential growth of new infections on the Indian subcontinent are rightly causing concern not only there — but worldwide.
India's second COVID wave leaves suffering in its wake
India is in mourning as coronavirus ravages cities across the country. More than 300,000 new cases are currently being reported every day, with people pleading for beds and oxygen outside hospitals.
Image: Amit Dave/REUTERS
India sees its darkest days of pandemic
India has added hundreds of thousands of cases in recent days, and the total death toll has surpassed 220,000. Cities are running out of space to bury or cremate the dead.
Image: Danish Siddiqui/REUTERS
COVID sufferers seek medical support at temples
An elderly woman suffering from breathing difficulties due to COVID-19 waits to receive free supplemental oxygen outside a Sikh temple on the outskirts of Delhi in Ghaziabad. Many who are struggling for breath due to COVID-19 have flocked to the temple, hoping to secure some of its limited oxygen supplies.
Image: ADNAN ABIDI/REUTERS
COVID patients turn to informal health services
Hospitals in Delhi and across the country are turning away patients after running out of medical oxygen and beds. Many have put out urgent notices saying they can't cope with the rush of patients. The Sikh temple in Ghaziabad has come to resemble the emergency ward of a hospital. People all across Delhi are seeking and creating makeshift health care spaces.
Image: ADNAN ABIDI/REUTERS
Doctors treating patients wherever possible
A health care worker tests blood oxygen levels of a COVID patient inside an ambulance in the eastern city of Kolkata. With people being forced to wait many hours to receive treatment, doctors have been treating people in cars and taxis parked in front of hospitals.
A couple wait inside a rickshaw until they can enter a COVID-19 hospital for treatment in the western city of Ahmedabad. Social media and local news footage have captured desperate relatives begging for oxygen outside hospitals or weeping in the street for loved ones who have died waiting for treatment.
Image: Amit Dave/REUTERS
India in mourning
A young boy at a crematorium mourns the loss of his father, who died from COVID-19. In the last month alone, daily COVID cases in India have increased eight times over — and deaths, 10 times. Health experts have said the actual death toll is probably far higher than the official numbers.
Image: Adnan Abidi/REUTERS
India's younger population also hit
This 35-year-old woman is suffering from breathing difficulties due to COVID-19. Like many others, she is waiting in front of a hospital to receive oxygen support. Scientists are concerned that a more infectious "double mutation" of the virus is spreading in India.
Image: ADNAN ABIDI/REUTERS
Second COVID wave 'supremely contagious'
The family of a COVID victim mourn together outside a mortuary of a hospital in New Delhi. Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said India's current infection wave is "particularly dangerous" and that people were falling sick more severely and for longer.
"It is supremely contagious, and those who are contracting it are not able to recover as swiftly."
The unfolding crisis is most noticeable in India's overwhelmed graveyards and crematoriums. Burial grounds in the capital New Delhi are running out of space. In other cities, glowing funeral pyres light up the night sky. "The virus is swallowing our city's people like a monster,'' said Mamtesh Sharma, an official at Bhadbhada Vishram Ghat crematorium in the central city of Bhopal.
Image: Adnan Abidi/REUTERS
Vaccine drive falling behind
India's vaccination program is lagging, with only 10% of the country's population having received one dose, and 1.5% having received both doses. Indians aged 18 and older are now eligible for a vaccine. The United States has said it would send raw materials for vaccine production to help strengthen India's capacity to manufacture more AstraZeneca vaccine.
