Facebook’s disclosure of a likely Russia-linked advertising campaign appears plausible. The revelation raises new questions about the Trump campaign and highlights an old misunderstanding by the Kremlin.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/F. Gentsch
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How credible is Facebook's revelation of a possibly Russian-backed political ad campaign in the US?
The information that an operation likely based in Russia was behind ad buys driving politically divisive messages on Facebook in a two-year period around the US election stems only from the social network itself and so far has not been independently verified. However, Russia observers consider Facebook's revelation plausible as it tallies with known efforts by the Kremlin to try and influence election outcomes.
It also fits with:
- Old-style Soviet attempts to undermine and cause chaos in the political systems of its adversaries
- The Kremlin's "general playbook of trying to use online information to influence politics in other countries," says Joshua Tucker, the director of the Jordan Center for Advanced Study of Russia at New York University.
According to a Pew study from last year, 68 percent of all Americans and 79 percent of all Americans who are online use Facebook. The world's largest social network is increasingly emerging as a dominant information hub which is why it would make sense for Russia, or any other actor intent on influencing the US election, to target American voters there.
Allegations of collusion with the Kremlin have dogged Team Trump since the 2016 election campaign. DW takes a look at how special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation unfolded.
Image: Reuters/L. Downing
2013: Mr. Trump goes to Russia
June 18, 2013. Donald Trump tweeted: "The Miss Universe Pageant will be broadcast live from MOSCOW, RUSSIA on November 9. A big deal that will bring our countries together!" He later added: "Do you think Putin will be going - if so, will he become my new best friend?" October 17, 2013 Trump tells chat show host David Letterman he has conducted "a lot of business with the Russians."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/V. Prokofyev
September 2015: Hacking allegations raised
An FBI agent tells a tech-support contractor at the Democratic National Committee it may have been hacked. On May 18, 2016, James Clapper, the director of National Intelligence, says there were "some indications" of cyberattacks aimed at the presidential campaigns. On June 14, 2016 the DNC announces it had been the victim of an attack by Russian hackers.
Image: picture alliance/MAXPPP/R. Brunel
July 20, 2016: Kislyak enters the picture
Senator Jeff Sessions — an early Trump endorser who led his national security advisory committee — meets Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak and a group of other ambassadors at a Republican National Convention event.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/B. Smialowski
July 22, 2016: Assange thickens the plot
Julian Assange's WikiLeaks publishes 20,000 emails stolen from the DNC, appearing to show a preference for Hillary Clinton over Senator Bernie Sanders.
Image: Reuters/N. Hall
July 25, 2016: Cometh the hour, Comey the man
The FBI announces it is investigating the DNC hack saying "a compromise of this nature is something we take very seriously."
Image: Getty Images/AFP/B. Smialowski
November 8, 2016: Trump elected
Donald Trump is elected president of the United States. On November 9, the Russian parliament burst into applause at the news.
Image: Reuters/K. Lamarque
November 10, 2016: Team Trump denies Russia link
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Rybakov says there "were contacts" between the Russian government and the Trump campaign during the election campaign. The Trump campaign issues a firm denial.
Image: Imago/Itar-Tass
November 18, 2016: Flynn appointed
Trump names General Michael Flynn as his national security adviser. The former Defense Intelligence Agency chief was a top foreign policy adviser in Trump's campaign. Flynn resigned in February after failing to disclose full details of his communication with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak.
Image: Reuters/C. Barria
January 26, 2017: Yates - 'The center cannot hold'
Acting Attorney General Sally Yates tells White House counsel Don McGahn that Flynn made false statements regarding his calls with Kislyak. On January 30, Trump fires Yates for refusing to enforce his travel ban, which was later blocked by federal courts.
Image: Getty Images/P. Marovich
March 2, 2017: Sessions recuses himself
Trump says he has "total confidence" in Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Sessions announces he will recuse himself from any investigation into ties between Russia and the Trump campaign.
Image: Getty Images/S.Loeb
March 20, 2017: FBI examines Trump-Kremlin links
FBI Director James Comey confirms before the House Select Committee on Intelligence that the FBI was investigating possible links between Russia and the Trump campaign.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AP/J. S. Applewhite
May 9, 2017: Trump sacks Comey
In a letter announcing the termination, Trump writes: "While I greatly appreciate you informing me, on three separate occasions, that I am not under investigation, I nevertheless concur with the judgment of the Department of Justice that you are not able to effectively lead the Bureau."
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst/K. Lamarque
May 17, 2017: Mueller appointed special counsel
Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appoints former FBI Director Robert Mueller to look into Russia's interference in the 2016 election and possible collusion with the Trump campaign.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/J.S. Applewhite
August 2017: FBI seizes documents from Manafort
Shortly after Mueller convenes a grand jury for the investigation, the FBI seizes documents from one of Paul Manafort's properties as part of a raid for Mueller's probe. The former Trump campaigner manager stepped down in August 2016 after allegations surfaced that he had received large payments linked to Ukraine's former pro-Russian government.
Image: Imago
September 2017: Trump Jr.'s talks to Senate committee
Donald Trump Jr. tells the Senate Judiciary Committee he has not colluded with a foreign government. The closed-door interview relates to his June 2016 meeting with Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya, which was also attended by his brother-in-law, Jared Kushner, and then-campaign manager Paul Manafort. Trump Jr.’s emails, however, suggest the meeting was supposed to produce dirt on Clinton.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/K. Willens
October 2017: Internet giants allege Russian interference
Facebook, Twitter and Google reportedly tell US media they have evidence that Russian operatives exploited platforms to spread disinformation during the 2016 US presidential election. The three companies are appear before the Senate Intelligence Committee in November 2017.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Lei
July 2018: Trump and Putin meet in Helsinki
Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Helsinki for their first-ever summit. During the trip, Trump publically contradicts the findings of US intelligence agencies who concluded that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election.
November 8, 2018: Sessions resigns as attorney general
Attorney General Jeff Sessions resigns from his post, under reported pressure from Trump. The president then appoints a critic of the Mueller probe as his successor, but later nominates William Barr to be the next attorney general in December 2018.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/A. Brandon
November 29, 2018: Former Trump lawyer pleads guilty
Trump's former long-time personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, pleads guilty to lying to Congress about discussions in 2016 on plans to build a Trump Tower in Moscow. The FBI raided his home earlier that year in April. He would later be sentenced to three years in prison. In 2019, he tells Congress that Trump is a "racist" and a "con man."
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst
January 2019: Trump associate Roger Stone arrested
Roger Stone, a longtime Trump associate and Republican operative, is arrested at his home in Florida for lying to Congress about having advance knowledge of plans by WikiLeaks to release emails from the Democratic Party that US officials say were stolen by Russia.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AP Photo/L. Sladky
March 13, 2019: Manafort sentenced to prison
Manafort is found guilty of conspiracy charges and handed an additional sentence, bringing his total prison sentence to 7.5 years. In August 2018, a court in Virginia found him guilty of eight charges, including tax and bank fraud. He also pleaded guilty to two conspiracy counts.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/D. Verkouteren
March 22, 2019: Mueller ends Russia probe
Special counsel Robert Mueller submits a confidential 448-page report on the findings of his investigation to the US Justice Department. The main conclusions of the report are made public when they are given to Congress. A redacted version of the report is released to the public on April 18, though Democrats call for the full report to be released.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/C. Dharapak
March 24, 2019: Trump declares 'exoneration'
The final report concluded that no one involved in Trump's 2016 election campaign colluded with Russia. Attorney General William Barr said the report provided no evidence that Trump obstructed justice, but stopped short of fully exonerating the president. Reacting to the findings, Trump described the probe as an "illegal take-down that failed," and said there was "complete and total exoneration."
Image: Reuters/K. Lamarque
May 1, 2019: Barr testifies
In late March, Mueller writes a letter expressing concerns over the way Barr portrayed his report. The attorney general says the special counsel's letter was "a bit snitty" while testifying in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee in May. Barr then cancels a subsequent appearance before the House Judicial Committee, citing "unprecedented and unnecessary" hearing conditions.
Image: Getty Images/A. Wong
July 24, 2019: Mueller light
Robert Mueller's congressional testimony on the Russia probe was again inconclusive. He sometimes struggled with his answers or avoided queries. To the Democrats frustration he appeared to do little to give any encouragement to the notion that President Trump could be impeached, though he did suggest he might be prosecuted for obstruction of justice crimes after he leaves the White House.
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst
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Why is this comparatively small effort important given previous scandals about Russian meddling in the US election?
The $100,000 allegedly spent by the Russian-backed operation on 3,000 ads connected to less than 500 accounts is miniscule in comparison to the nearly $1 billion the Federal Election Commission says was spent on the US election campaign.
But it is impossible to know whether this alleged effort was just the tip of the iceberg in terms of Russian ad buys or related activities on social media platforms or whether it was simply a test balloon to see what could be done and whether it worked.
What the experts say:
- "In no way shape or form could we call this the ceiling on what may have been activities designed to influence opinion about candidates or issues during the election," said Joshua Tucker, director of the Jordan Center for Advanced Study of Russia at New York University.
- "The reason why you run an add on social media is because you can target it to someone in Detroit who is upset about the oil industry and trade issues and you can make sure they see the ad on trade issues," explained Tucker.
- "Most importantly, it reveals a level of sophistication about US public opinion that is pretty striking," said Kimberly Marten, professor of political science at Barnard College and director of the US-Russia program at Columbia University.
If the Kremlin was involved, would this represent a big win for Moscow?
Arguments in favor:
- If the Facebook disclosure is true, then it certainly highlights how Russia has not only the know-how and the means, but also the political will to try to influence election outcomes in a country like the United States.
- Such a brazen and sophisticated effort would probably not have been thought possible by many Americans prior to last year's election.
Arguments against:
- Russia has figured out how to try and influence public opinion and the presidential election, but has failed to grasp that the Congress, and also the judiciary, can curb the president's actions.
- "It's a basic problem that Russian intelligence and Russian analysis of the United States has had for many years dating back to Soviet times: They never understood the role of Congress in the US political system," according to Marten.
What does this mean for the investigation into the Trump campaign's potential connections with Russia?
That is the big and so far unanswered question. The Facebook revelation certainly raises the temperature again for the investigation by special prosecutor Robert Mueller into possible connections between the Trump presidential campaign and Russia.
"It absolutely raises the question of where are the alleged Russian operators getting the information from about who should be targeted with what types of issues?" said Tucker.
Russian hackers to target German elections
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Does Facebook's revelation have any implication for the upcoming German election?
Yes. Russia reportedly tried to interfere in the US and French election, and so Germany, which has also been allegedly targeted before, should be prepared as well.
"It would be very surprising if they did not try it in Germany, especially because Putin's career history is centered on Dresden and he is a fluent German speaker," said Marten.
