Lotfi Mraihi is in prison, facing serious charges. The Secretary General of Tunisia's Republican People's Union and a candidate for the country's upcoming presidential elections, Mraihi has been accused of money laundering and illegally moving money abroad. 

Mraihi was arrested this week after he announced his intention to run in the early October vote. When Mraihi ran in 2019, he received around 6.5% of the vote. 

Other politicians who have expressed an interest in running for the country's highest office or are considered potential candidates have also been targeted by authorities.

There is a warrant out for the arrest of journalist and politician Safi Said, for instance, who is accused of forgery and fraud. Still other potential candidates have been put in prison or live in exile.

Moreover, the authorities are not just cracking down on potential candidates but on critical voices in general. In May, Sonia Dahmani, a lawyer known for her criticism of the increasingly authoritarian President Kais Saied, was arrested in a television studio as cameras were recording. In early July, she was sentenced to one year in prison for allegedly spreading false news.

Rached Ghannouchi, a fierce critic of Saied and leader of the relatively moderate Islamist opposition party Ennahda, has been behind bars since last year. He was convicted of incitement against the police and conspiracy against state security.

'No free elections'

"The most important prerequisites for free elections have not been met," Riad Chaibi, opposition politician and advisor to Ghannouchi, told DW. Tunisia's political scene has witnessed a flurry of arrests, trials and imprisonments.

Ezzeddine al-Hazqi, one of the founders of the opposition alliance "National Salvation Front," takes a similar view. President Kais Saied has been unable to achieve political successes, al-Hazqi told DW. "He now sees no other solution than to have his opponents arrested." Saied now also has full control of the judiciary, according to the opposition politician. "There can be no question of free elections in Tunisia."

In fact, President Kais Saied, who in 2021 suspended the parliament of the former democratic flagship country before later dissolving it completely, cannot boast any major successes, especially with regard to Tunisia's economic problems.

According to the International Labour Organization, unemployment stands at 15% and around four million of Tunisia's 12 million citizens live below the poverty line. 

Dubious legislation

According to a May 2024 assessment by the Brussels International Center, a think tank, legal risks for potential candidates stem from a September 2022 decree entitled Decree Law 54, which targets freedom of expression and press liberties, and criminalizes the production, promotion, or dissemination of "false news or rumours." The latter is punishable with up to five years in prison, and up to 10 if targeting public officials. "Notable figures who have fallen victim to Decree Law 54 include Salvation Front member Chaima Issa, opposition politician Ghazi Chaouachi, and journalist Zied El Heni," the report states.

This is likely to intimidate potential candidates and complicate their candidacies.

However, the think tank also notes another reason: "At present, the declared presidential candidates lack significant voter support, as many prominent opposition figures are making their participation dependent upon the release of political prisoners and a return to the 2014 constitution."

Furthermore, entry requirements for candidacies have also been tightened. The age limit for potential candidates has been raised from 35 to 40. This, for example, prevents 35-year-old politician Olfa Hamdi, the former president of national air carrier Air Tunisia and founder of the "Third Republican Party," from running. The decision is not only unconstitutional but also illegal under current electoral law, she criticized on the social media platform X.

Dual nationals, who mostly hold Tunisian and French passports, are also excluded from running for office. "These newly defined requirements prevent a whole range of people from registering as candidates," says Malte Gaier, head of the Tunis office of the German Konrad Adenauer Foundation.

Earlier this week, incumbent President Saied announced the elections would take place on October 6. However, he has not yet officially declared his own candidacy.

Nevertheless, observers believe he will do so in the foreseeable future. He can continue to rely on high approval ratings and great popularity, at least among parts of the population, says expert Gaier.

'Far from a good development'

It is all the more surprising that Saied is resorting to such repressive measures under these circumstances, as Maria Josua, a Tunisia politics researcher at the German research institution GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies, told DW.

Yet, there is also another factor: "The party landscape is relatively fragmented, no candidate really has a serious chance of winning," Josua explained. She therefore concludes that Saied is truly committed to his bid for autocracy. "We have elections here without a real choice between different candidates."

Nevertheless, the president is trying to maintain at least the facade of genuine elections, said the German expert. However, in reality, he is pushing the country further and further toward autocracy. This is, "far from a good development" for Tunisia, according to Maria Josua.

It also remains to be seen just how fair and transparent election day itself will be. At the end of 2022, President Saied blocked international observers in the first parliamentary election after he dissolved parliament.

As of now, only time will tell if he will maintain that stance in the upcoming presidential elections.

This article was originally written in German.