Large parts of Myanmar’s Shan state bordering China have not been controlled by the central government for decades. The military regime settled instead for ceasefire agreements with different militant groups of the local ethnic minorities. Jasmin Lorch, an expert on the region at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, explains:

"Now what was special about these ceasefires was that the minority parties were allowed to control a certain area, but there were no formal peace treaties including a political solution. So that is why the parties to these ceasefires kept their arms. But now, ahead of next year’s election, the military government is trying to either disarm them or put these minority armies under the control of the Burmese army."

Minorities refuse to collaborate

Apparently, most ethnic minorities have refused the offer to convert their armies into a kind of army-run border patrol force. And while some Kokang or ethnic Chinese fighters seem to have collaborated with the army, hundreds, maybe thousands of Kokang rebels put up a fight when the army entered their territory a few days ago.

The army quickly won the battle for Kokang, and the rebels joined more than 30,000 civilians who fled into neighbouring China. After leaving their weapons there, some are reported to have come back into Myanmar with the refugees from China.

China in a quandary

In less turbulent times, traders from both sides of the border with China’s Yunnan province cross it regularly. Many Chinese citizens have settled down in Kokang, and China has wide-ranging business interests in the whole border region, says Jasmin Lorch:

"China finds itself in a very complicated situation here. China has good business contacts and relations both with different minority groups and with the junta. And in order to maintain its economic interests in the minority areas it is crucial to have these contacts with both sides."

When the recent fighting broke out in Kokang, China publicly admonished the Myanmar government to solve its domestic conflicts peacefully. This is unusual as Beijing normally stands by the junta when it faces criticism over its human rights record.

While most Western analysts believe that China must have applied even more pressure behind the scenes, Chinese sources have pointed out that Beijing’s influence has its limits. Jasmin Lorch concludes: "One can definitely say that the Myanmar government has snubbed an internationally crucial partner, the People’s Republic of China, by ignoring Chinese advice."

Further army operations anticipated

Other ethnic minorities are now worried that the Myanmar army will try and repeat the quick victory over the Kokang rebels in adjacent areas by taking on the different rebel groups there one at a time.

But this is not likely to be an easy task. The Kokang rebels were the smallest minority army in the region, whereas the biggest, the United Wa State Army is believed to number about 20,000 fighters, mostly ethnic Wa. If the Wa Army honoured its alliance with the other minority groups and took up arms against the military, there would certainly be a much longer battle; and with many more refugees entering China, Beijing could hardly be expected to keep quiet.

Author: Thomas Bärthlein
Editor: Grahame Lucas