Published June 4, 2024last updated September 13, 2024
With the Czech Republic, Poland and Germany preparing for heavy rainfall and flooding, here's what you need to know about the extreme weather phenomenon "five B" and why it's getting worse.
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"Vb weather conditions" are seldom reported in English-language media, were first described in 1891 by German meteorologist Wilhelm Jacob van Bebber, who cataloged typical paths of low-pressure systems and labeled them with Roman numerals.
Although the terms Va, Vc and Vd have since fallen out of popular usage, Vb (pronounced five-B weather conditions, V = Roman 5) is still used by meteorologists to describe a rare pressure system that can bring heavy rainfall, and often catastrophic damage, to Europe.
Unusual trajectory
In Europe, weather is often determined by low pressure systems that move across the continent from west to east. In a Vb weather situation, however, the path of the low pressure system changes: The low pressure system moves towards the Mediterranean Sea due to colder air masses over western Europe.
Depending on the position of the core, such low pressure areas in the Mediterranean are also known as Genoa, Adriatic or Balearic lows.
The low pressure area pushes very humid air from the Mediterranean region past the eastern side of the Alps and north across the Czech Republic and Poland to Scandinavia.
As it moves across Europe, the low pressure system causes heavy precipitation — as was the case in southern and eastern parts of Germany when they saw flooding June 2024.
Mediterranean lows bring rain to southeastern Europe's mountains
Mediterranean lows generally pump warm air masses from the Sahara across the Eastern Mediterranean.
There, the lows usually accumulate moisture, causing heavy rain in southern European mountain areas. This not only affects the Alps, but also the Pyrenees, Dinarides, Carpathians and the Rhodope Mountains, among others.
Strong Mediterranean lows generally occur in winter. In exceptional cases, a Mediterranean low can form a cloud-free area in the center, sort of like the eye of a hurricane.
Hurricane Daniel, which hit Europe in September 2023, was an example of this system at work. The storm, which first hit in the Eastern Mediterranean, caused flooding in southeastern Europe and North Africa, pummeling Greece, Libya, Bulgaria and Turkey with heavy rainfall.
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Flooding due to sluggish Mediterranean lows
Although Vb weather conditions can develop at any time of the year, they usually occur in spring and fall, when a strong exchange occurs between the cold northern and warm southern air masses.
Such conditions can present for several weeks: One Mediterranean low follows the next, each channeling humid air to the north.
In such situations, the problem is not only a large amount of water, but, above all, a lack of wind.
As a result, Mediterranean lows often move very slowly or even stop, causing massive amounts of rain to fall on a limited area. If these precipitation events go on long enough, the ground can become so soaked that it loses its ability to absorb more water, causing flooding.
The warmer the Mediterranean and the air above it, the more water moves north with the low pressure area. This is why Vb situations have led to catastrophic flooding in the past, especially in summer.
Germany's 2002 "flood of the century," which occurred near the country's Elbe river in the month of August, is a well-known example of a Vb weather situation.
Germany marks 20 years since Elbe floods
Dozens were killed, hundreds injured and tens of thousands left homeless when torrential rains caused the Elbe and other rivers in eastern Germany to burst their banks in one of Europe's worst natural disasters.
Image: Ralf Hirschberger/dpa/picture-alliance
Flooded streets
In August 2002, a low pressure system dubbed Ilse triggered heavy rainfall in Central Europe, causing record-breaking floods in the Czech Republic, Austria and Germany. One of the first cities affected was Passau, in Bavaria. The Danube reached 10.8 meters, its highest level since 1954. Some 850 volunteers, including these divers, helped out around the clock.
Image: Armin Weigel/dpa/picture-alliance
Dramatic scale
The area surrounding the Erz Mountains and Dresden was also put on alert after the water level rose dramatically in a short period of time. Small tributaries of the Elbe River, such as the Müglitz and Weisseritz, became torrential rapids. The town of Pirna flooded in a matter of hours. Here, a lone car was seen drifting through the water near Bad Schandau, near Dresden.
Image: Ralf Hirschberger/dpa/picture-alliance
Cultural heritage destroyed
On August 17, the Elbe and Weisseritz rivers flooded parts of Dresden's historic city center, affecting the Zwinger Palace, which boasts the Old Masters Gallery, and the famous Semperoper opera house. The two buildings are among the best-known examples of Baroque architecture in Germany. The damage was later estimated at around €47 million (around $49 million at today's rates).
Image: Ralf Hirschberger/dpa/picture-alliance
Walkways become pools
While the Elbe rose to 11.5 meters (about 38 feet) in Pirna, in Dresden — Saxony's state capital — the water level broke the city record, reaching 9.4 meters. On Schillerplatz, the water was over 2 meters deep and parts of the city had to be evacuated.
Image: PatrickPleul/dpa/picture-alliance
Makeshift rafts
Other cities throughout the state of Saxony were also hit hard by the flooding. Villages such as Weesenstein were cut off from the outside world. In Meissen, whose center was completely flooded, this resident made his own raft and could be seen drifting past the awning of a local bakery. Meanwhile, aid workers tried to rescue people in their homes.
Image: Peter Endig/dpa/picture-alliance
Capitalizing on the crisis?
German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, busy campaigning for the Bundestag elections, visits Grimma, a town devastated by the nearby Mulde River, with Saxony's State Premier Georg Milbradt — and presented himself as the empathetic "chancellor in rubber boots." Meanwhile, his opponent Edmund Stoiber was vacationing at the North Sea. Schröder would go on to win reelection in the fall.
Image: Waltraud Grubitzsch/dpa/picture-alliance
A region submerged
On August 20, a dam burst near Torgau and caused water from the Elbe to spill into the surrounding countryside. In Saxony alone, 21 people died in the disaster. Today, 20 years later, Saxony's residents are much better protected against flooding. Since 2002, the state has invested around €3 billion in flood protection projects.
Image: Ralf Hirschberger/dpa/picture-alliance
Race against time
The flood wave rolled northward from Saxony. In the Prignitz district of Brandenburg, disaster control was in full swing and authorities ordered the evacuation of 37 villages. On August 22, Bundeswehr soldiers used sandbags to reinforce leaks in the Elbe dike.
Image: Jens Büttner/dpa/picture-alliance
Defenseless city
Soon after, the water reached the states of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein. In some places, the flood waves were 3 to 4 meters high. This photo shows the old town of Hitzacker in Lower Saxony, which was not protected by dikes; by August 23, many parts were submerged.
Image: Jens Büttner/dpa/picture-alliance
Road to nowhere
Large areas in Lower Saxony and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania were flooded. At an intersection near Hitzacker, the occupants of these cars just managed to escape to safety. Mass evacuations along the Elbe began in the north as well.
Image: Jens Büttner/dpa/picture-alliance
Reinforcing the dikes
Fortunately, the water downstream did not rise as high as had been feared. Here, soldiers secured an Elbe dike near Lauenburg, where the flood causes the least damage. The dikes in Hamburg, some 50 kilometers (30 miles) away at the mouth of the Elbe, held. The river there is deeper and wider, and the flood wave simply petered out.
Image: Kay Nietfeld/dpa/picture-alliance
Scenes of devastation
The floods caused major damage across Germany. It left behind destroyed roads, bridges and railroad tracks, as here near Riesa. Houses and dikes were damaged, and harvests were ruined. The Elbe flood of 2002 is still considered the most expensive natural disaster in German history. The total damage amounted to €11.6 billion.
Image: Matthias Hiekel/dpa/picture-alliance
Wave of solidarity
Even more dramatic than the material damage was the human loss, as dozens of people died in the floods. But the willingness to help out was also enormous. The German Red Cross alone collected around €146 million to help people in the flooded areas rebuild — like this man standing on the roof of his ruined home near Wittenberg.
Image: Waltraud Grubitzsch/dpa/picture-alliance
Repeat cannot be ruled out
By the end of August, the washed-up mud had dried on the banks of the Elbe in Dresden. During the 2002 flood, Germany recorded the highest precipitation ever measured in the country, with as much rain falling in a few days as would otherwise have fallen in half a year. A repeat event can't be ruled out: Climate change is making heavy rainfall events more likely.
Image: Ralf Hirschberger/dpa/picture-alliance
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Potential for worse Vb weather conditions due to climate change
Although there will be fewer summertime Mediterranean lows in the coming decades, meteorologists predict that climate change will cause the atmosphere to warm, allowing for increased absorption of water vapor and subsequent rainfall.
Climate change may also affect the jet stream. At high altitudes, this broad band of very strong westerly winds over the Arctic determines wind conditions and therefore the weather. Recently, the jet stream has shifted significantly to the south.