Detlev Mehlis, a senior public prosecutor in Berlin is a former investigator with the United Nations and closely involved in the probe after the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

Very familiar with the dynamics and power politics of the region, Mehlis is convinced that Syria and Iran are behind the recent outbreak of violence between Israel and Lebanon.

While he says he has no proof, he insists that the current events would not be happening without explicit approval from Syria, especially since the weapons being used by Hezbollah in all likelihood came through Syria.

"Syria is on Hezbollah's side and vice versa," he said. "Hezbollah would certainly not risk taking the kind of action it has without having Syria's approval."

Mehlis thinks that Syria, despite its withdrawal under international pressure from Lebanon last year, has not given up its desire to bring the country under its control again.

That became quite clear during the investigation into the Hariri case, he says. Syrian secret agents tried to interfere in the investigation, the Syrian Justice Department got involved and witness were intimidated. According to him, Syria's attitude toward Lebanon has not changed in the slightest.

"Syria refuses to this day to establish diplomatic relations; it refuses to recognized a binding demarcation of common borders," he said. "For Syria, Lebanon is nowhere near being an autonomous country."

Proxy War?

But Mehlis dismisses the speculation that Hezbollah is conducting a proxy war for Iran and Syria as precisely that -- speculation. But he says that while such an analysis is premature, it is not a completely misguided conclusion, since Syria has an interest in the destabilization of Lebanon.

Formulating a strategy for preventing that very development, however, is difficult. Mehlis does think the idea of sending UN troops into southern Lebanon is an interesting one. However, he thinks the peacekeepers' effectiveness could be limited.

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), created in 1978 to confirm Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, has had limited success in preventing Israel from marching into Lebanon or in stopping Hezbollah from firing on Israel.

"The influence of the international community is restricted," he said. "The US has a clear influence on Israel, that is certain. Iran and Syria have real influence over Hezbollah. But whether they can apply enough pressure to stop the assaults, I doubt. I think it's unfortunately going to take some time."

Hezbollah's firing of Iranian rockets over the last few days with a range of up to 100 kilometers has taken the conflict to a new dimension. It has cast doubt on security concepts that up to now have been based on the concept of "security zones." Those might have been effective when the weapons were Katyusha rockets with a range of under 20 kilometers. But when Hezbollah rockets can now threaten Haifa and other Israeli cities, the entire equation is changed.

"Still, buffer zones would help prevent incidents that have led to this escalation such as the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers," said Mehlis.

"But what can one do? The lesser of two evils is still better than conflicts like we're seeing now."