French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou looked more composed when he faced the press earlier this week than one might expect of a politician on borrowed time.

With a calm voice and serious expression, Bayrou announced that he had asked President Emmanuel Macron to convene an extraordinary session of parliament on September 8, to call a vote of confidence before it even begins to debate the budget.

Bayrou hoped that this shock decision would help secure backing for his planned austerity budget, which faces strong opposition from both politicians and ordinary people.

Bayrou's minority government wants to save almost €44 billion ($51 billion) in order to bring down the budget deficit from last year's 5.8% of GDP to 4.6% in 2026, which is still well in excess of the 3% stipulated by the European Union.

One of its more symbolically loaded proposals is the scrapping of two French public holidays.

Bayrou isn't just risking his own career by calling a vote of confidence. If he fails, President Macron will have to replace him as head of government, which will mean naming his fifth prime minister — after Elisabeth Borne, Gabriel Attal and Michel Barnier — in just over 600 days.

This is the kind of turnover that France associates with the crisis years of the Third Republic, a system of government between 1870 and 1940.

Comparisons with the 1930s

During the Third Republic, in the early 1930s, France was reeling from the fallout of the Great Depression. Governments came and went; prime ministers were replaced on a monthly basis. The Third Republic got through six of them in 1932–33 and that record made its political incapacity glaringly obvious.

The reasons for their failure was almost always the same: disagreement about the budget, the prerogative of parliament. Every attempt to balance the books was scuppered by the delegates' opposition. Tax rises, cuts and special levies — all the suggested plans were rejected. The budget became the obstacle that eroded trust in French democracy and paralyzed the government.

France is in a debt dilemma

Ninety years on, this sounds very familiar.

France today has a crushing debt of more than €3 trillion euros. The debt interest alone devours tens of billions of government funding each year.

Brussels has warned that the government must economize, while the financial markets are watching French politics like a hawk.

Following Bayrou's announcement, the stock market tumbled and government bond yields rose. This month, they have at times been even higher than those of Greece. Without a credible consolidation plan, France risks being downgraded by credit rating agencies.

The proposed government budget relies on a mixture of subsidy cuts, restricted growth in welfare spending and moderate tax increases for high earners — the "austerity light" that economists have been calling for for years. But it's not the numbers that are the problem, it's the parliament.

France's opposition parties united against Bayrou

Since the election in the summer of 2024, the government has no longer had an absolute majority in parliament.

This is effectively divided into three major blocks: the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), the centrist bloc that supports the president and the New Popular Front, an alliance of left-wing parties.

The RN is now openly calling for fresh elections.

"We will vote against the confidence motion. Only the dissolution of parliament will give the French the chance to decide their future," RN's former leader, Marine Le Pen, declared in a post on X.

Le Pen was banned from running for public office for five years after she was found guilty in March 2025 of embezzling public funds. Instead of austerity, the RN demands that the government invest in the police and the army and also in strengthening purchasing power, which it says should be financed by taking on more debt.

The left-wing parties also argue that Bayrou is making the wrong choices. The far-left party La France Insoumise (LFI) has planned a protest on September 10, along the lines of a general strike.

But the Greens, the Communists and the Socialists have also ruled out supporting the prime minister.

As things stand, it seems Bayrou has no chance of winning a majority.

Olivier Faure, the Socialist Party leader, described the budget as "unfair," and promised in a TV interview that he would put forward an "alternative budget," presumably based on new taxes on corporations and the wealthy.

The path of austerity is also contested within the conservative camp. Xavier Bertrand, the conservative president of the Hauts-de-France region, warned against placing a disproportionate burden on the middle classes. Bertrand argued that too harsh a policy wouldn't solve the debt crisis and would only strengthen the RN, which is currently ahead in the polls.

French government warns the IMF may intervene

Meanwhile, the government itself is appealing for people's trust and warning about the consequences if it doesn't succeed.

Finance minister Eric Lombard told French radio on Tuesday that the government didn't want to pursue a "politics of fear," but that the risk was real.

In the worst case scenario, he said, the International Monetary Fund might even intervene.

"Our responsibility is to maintain market confidence," said Lombard. "We are on track; public finances are under control." However, he also warned about the growing burden of interest, saying that already France might soon have to pay higher borrowing costs than Italy.

Lombard announced that the budget for 2026 would be one of "redressement et d'équité" — recovery and fairness — which would make savings of €44 billion.

Those with the broadest shoulders should take on more of the burden, he said, so the public could see it was being distributed fairly: "The French people must see that the sacrifice is shared."

Francois Bayrou: Prime minister on borrowed time

Prime Minister Bayrou is in a difficult predicament. If he doesn't make significant budget cuts, the markets will lose confidence in him.

On the other hand, tough cuts will mean he won't get a parliamentary majority to back the 2026 budget. In calling a confidence vote, he is gambling on the stability of the whole system.

If Bayrou fails to secure parliamentary backing on September 8, President Macron, who explicitly supports the austerity budget, will have to make some difficult decisions.

Will he call new parliamentary elections after just one year? Will he opt for a technocratic government or choose a prime ministr from a different camp? Or might he even call his own mandate into question, 18 months before a presidential election is due, paving the way for an early transfer of power?

For now, though, the key question remains unanswered: How to govern a country whose finances are spiralling out of control if there is no majority willing to shoulder the burden?

This article was originally published in German.