Russia sanctions could hold, but strain transatlantic ties
Michael Knigge
July 25, 2017
A new round of US sanctions on Russia hammered out by Congress includes language that would make it harder for President Trump to lift them. But the bill also contains a passage that could increase tensions with Europe.
Trump and Putin: A sanction-proof friendship?Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/E. Vucci
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The sanctions bill would target the energy sector and other key segments of the Russian economy, but it would also limit President Donald Trump's ability to lift or change the sanctions regime unilaterally.
A key passage of the bill would require President Trump, who is under continued pressure over his campaign's alleged contacts with Russia, to seek congressional approval before undoing or altering the existing US sanctions against Moscow.
Extraordinary development
The White House, which initially opposed the measure, has now signaled tentative approval. President Trump could theoretically veto the bill, but due to its the bipartisan nature, he could face an override of his veto by Congress.
The measure would mandate the White House to write a report to Congress detailing the reasons for changing the sanctions regime. US lawmakers would then have 30 days to decide whether to agree to President Trump's request or not.
"In respect to domestic politics and for governmental relations in the US, this is a pretty extraordinary development”, said Jeffrey Anderson, director of the Center for German and European Studies at Georgetown University.
A timeline of the Russia investigation
Allegations of collusion with the Kremlin have dogged Team Trump since the 2016 election campaign. DW takes a look at how special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation unfolded.
Image: Reuters/L. Downing
2013: Mr. Trump goes to Russia
June 18, 2013. Donald Trump tweeted: "The Miss Universe Pageant will be broadcast live from MOSCOW, RUSSIA on November 9. A big deal that will bring our countries together!" He later added: "Do you think Putin will be going - if so, will he become my new best friend?" October 17, 2013 Trump tells chat show host David Letterman he has conducted "a lot of business with the Russians."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/V. Prokofyev
September 2015: Hacking allegations raised
An FBI agent tells a tech-support contractor at the Democratic National Committee it may have been hacked. On May 18, 2016, James Clapper, the director of National Intelligence, says there were "some indications" of cyberattacks aimed at the presidential campaigns. On June 14, 2016 the DNC announces it had been the victim of an attack by Russian hackers.
Image: picture alliance/MAXPPP/R. Brunel
July 20, 2016: Kislyak enters the picture
Senator Jeff Sessions — an early Trump endorser who led his national security advisory committee — meets Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak and a group of other ambassadors at a Republican National Convention event.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/B. Smialowski
July 22, 2016: Assange thickens the plot
Julian Assange's WikiLeaks publishes 20,000 emails stolen from the DNC, appearing to show a preference for Hillary Clinton over Senator Bernie Sanders.
Image: Reuters/N. Hall
July 25, 2016: Cometh the hour, Comey the man
The FBI announces it is investigating the DNC hack saying "a compromise of this nature is something we take very seriously."
Image: Getty Images/AFP/B. Smialowski
November 8, 2016: Trump elected
Donald Trump is elected president of the United States. On November 9, the Russian parliament burst into applause at the news.
Image: Reuters/K. Lamarque
November 10, 2016: Team Trump denies Russia link
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Rybakov says there "were contacts" between the Russian government and the Trump campaign during the election campaign. The Trump campaign issues a firm denial.
Image: Imago/Itar-Tass
November 18, 2016: Flynn appointed
Trump names General Michael Flynn as his national security adviser. The former Defense Intelligence Agency chief was a top foreign policy adviser in Trump's campaign. Flynn resigned in February after failing to disclose full details of his communication with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak.
Image: Reuters/C. Barria
January 26, 2017: Yates - 'The center cannot hold'
Acting Attorney General Sally Yates tells White House counsel Don McGahn that Flynn made false statements regarding his calls with Kislyak. On January 30, Trump fires Yates for refusing to enforce his travel ban, which was later blocked by federal courts.
Image: Getty Images/P. Marovich
March 2, 2017: Sessions recuses himself
Trump says he has "total confidence" in Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Sessions announces he will recuse himself from any investigation into ties between Russia and the Trump campaign.
Image: Getty Images/S.Loeb
March 20, 2017: FBI examines Trump-Kremlin links
FBI Director James Comey confirms before the House Select Committee on Intelligence that the FBI was investigating possible links between Russia and the Trump campaign.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AP/J. S. Applewhite
May 9, 2017: Trump sacks Comey
In a letter announcing the termination, Trump writes: "While I greatly appreciate you informing me, on three separate occasions, that I am not under investigation, I nevertheless concur with the judgment of the Department of Justice that you are not able to effectively lead the Bureau."
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst/K. Lamarque
May 17, 2017: Mueller appointed special counsel
Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein appoints former FBI Director Robert Mueller to look into Russia's interference in the 2016 election and possible collusion with the Trump campaign.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/J.S. Applewhite
August 2017: FBI seizes documents from Manafort
Shortly after Mueller convenes a grand jury for the investigation, the FBI seizes documents from one of Paul Manafort's properties as part of a raid for Mueller's probe. The former Trump campaigner manager stepped down in August 2016 after allegations surfaced that he had received large payments linked to Ukraine's former pro-Russian government.
Image: Imago
September 2017: Trump Jr.'s talks to Senate committee
Donald Trump Jr. tells the Senate Judiciary Committee he has not colluded with a foreign government. The closed-door interview relates to his June 2016 meeting with Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya, which was also attended by his brother-in-law, Jared Kushner, and then-campaign manager Paul Manafort. Trump Jr.’s emails, however, suggest the meeting was supposed to produce dirt on Clinton.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo/K. Willens
October 2017: Internet giants allege Russian interference
Facebook, Twitter and Google reportedly tell US media they have evidence that Russian operatives exploited platforms to spread disinformation during the 2016 US presidential election. The three companies are appear before the Senate Intelligence Committee in November 2017.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/Lei
July 2018: Trump and Putin meet in Helsinki
Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet in Helsinki for their first-ever summit. During the trip, Trump publically contradicts the findings of US intelligence agencies who concluded that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election.
November 8, 2018: Sessions resigns as attorney general
Attorney General Jeff Sessions resigns from his post, under reported pressure from Trump. The president then appoints a critic of the Mueller probe as his successor, but later nominates William Barr to be the next attorney general in December 2018.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/A. Brandon
November 29, 2018: Former Trump lawyer pleads guilty
Trump's former long-time personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, pleads guilty to lying to Congress about discussions in 2016 on plans to build a Trump Tower in Moscow. The FBI raided his home earlier that year in April. He would later be sentenced to three years in prison. In 2019, he tells Congress that Trump is a "racist" and a "con man."
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst
January 2019: Trump associate Roger Stone arrested
Roger Stone, a longtime Trump associate and Republican operative, is arrested at his home in Florida for lying to Congress about having advance knowledge of plans by WikiLeaks to release emails from the Democratic Party that US officials say were stolen by Russia.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/AP Photo/L. Sladky
March 13, 2019: Manafort sentenced to prison
Manafort is found guilty of conspiracy charges and handed an additional sentence, bringing his total prison sentence to 7.5 years. In August 2018, a court in Virginia found him guilty of eight charges, including tax and bank fraud. He also pleaded guilty to two conspiracy counts.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/D. Verkouteren
March 22, 2019: Mueller ends Russia probe
Special counsel Robert Mueller submits a confidential 448-page report on the findings of his investigation to the US Justice Department. The main conclusions of the report are made public when they are given to Congress. A redacted version of the report is released to the public on April 18, though Democrats call for the full report to be released.
Image: picture-alliance/AP/C. Dharapak
March 24, 2019: Trump declares 'exoneration'
The final report concluded that no one involved in Trump's 2016 election campaign colluded with Russia. Attorney General William Barr said the report provided no evidence that Trump obstructed justice, but stopped short of fully exonerating the president. Reacting to the findings, Trump described the probe as an "illegal take-down that failed," and said there was "complete and total exoneration."
Image: Reuters/K. Lamarque
May 1, 2019: Barr testifies
In late March, Mueller writes a letter expressing concerns over the way Barr portrayed his report. The attorney general says the special counsel's letter was "a bit snitty" while testifying in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee in May. Barr then cancels a subsequent appearance before the House Judicial Committee, citing "unprecedented and unnecessary" hearing conditions.
Image: Getty Images/A. Wong
July 24, 2019: Mueller light
Robert Mueller's congressional testimony on the Russia probe was again inconclusive. He sometimes struggled with his answers or avoided queries. To the Democrats frustration he appeared to do little to give any encouragement to the notion that President Trump could be impeached, though he did suggest he might be prosecuted for obstruction of justice crimes after he leaves the White House.
Image: Reuters/J. Ernst
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That a Republican-controlled Congress, specifically the House of Representatives where Trump has many supporters, would agree to tie the president's hand on a key foreign policy issue would have been hard to believe just a few months back.
"It's a sign of just how hemmed in he is by this whole Russia issue”, said Anderson.
Still, the deal is not done. Late Monday, Senator Bob Corker told reporters: "We still have a little work to do." He declined to give a timeframe for a potential adoption of the legislation and underlined that announcing a deal ahead of the vote "seemed somewhat premature."
Yet the willingness of so many Republicans to constrain Trump's political wiggle room on Russia also highlights the biggest division between the party and its president.
"Red line” matter
"On this issue, as opposed to other areas in which he has differed with long-standing conservative policies, such as immigration and free trade, the Republican voting base is not on his side” said Marc Lendler, a professor of government at Smith College.
"So Republicans in Congress are freer to part with him on Russia, and more likely to see doing so as a 'red line' matter”, he said.
Unlike the previous three rounds of Russia sanctions, which were put in place as responses to Moscow's annexation of the Crimea and interference in Ukraine, the new set of punitive measures are viewed also as a result of congressional unease with President Trump's perceived lax attitude towards Russia and his alleged fondness for President Vladimir Putin.
In fact, the original congressional sanctions bill was aimed at Iran. Punitive measures against Moscow were added to the measure only later as the bill evolved as constant new revelations about possible connections between Trump associates and Russia arose.
That's why the bill could also be perceived as a message by Republican lawmakers to Trump that he should not count on their cooperation on other issues related to Russia either, said Lendler.
The US and Russian top diplomats' meetings have been cordial to a faultImage: picture-alliance/dpa/TASS/S. Krasilnikov
Transatlantic consequences
What has been largely neglected, however, in the domestic discussion with its focus on constraining Trump's handling of Russia is the fact that the new bill could further strain what is an already tense transatlantic relationship, because the bill includes a passage that allows fines for businesses helping Moscow to build energy export pipelines.
Since European companies are much more exposed to energy projects involving Russia than their US counterparts, they would be disproportionately affected by potential penalties for doing business with Russian firms. Of particular concern for Europe in this regard is Nord Stream 2, a controversial pipeline slated to deliver Russian natural gas across the Baltic.
Germany and Austria, home of large energy companies that could be negatively impacted by the new bill, have voiced strong opposition against the measure from the get-go. And the EU has now also threatened retaliatory steps should the new law lead to fines against European companies.
"They have come up with a sanctions package that potentially externalizes a lot of the sacrifice onto Europe and European companies”, said Anderson. "And this is going to be a problem.”
Lack of consultation
The current state of affairs now further alienates the US and Europe, and that is counterproductive and unnecessary, said F. Stephen Larrabee, a European security expert at the Rand Corporation, who faults the Trump administration for not doing its homework on the issue.
"Of course, they should have consulted with the Europeans on this”, he said. "But this would require close cooperation between the White House, the State Department and the Treasury which doesn't exist."
Georgetown University's Anderson added that it is standard practice for the executive to step in and make sure America's allies are consulted by new legislation proposed by Congress and to intervene if necessary to make sure partners are not harmed unintentionally by new laws.
On previous rounds of Russian sanctions, said Anderson, Washington closely cooperated with its European partners, particularly Germany, to get agreement on the measure.
"The Obama-Merkel partnership was absolutely central here with Merkel and Germany then playing a kind of leadership role in Europe to bring along either hesitant or recalcitrant partners within the EU”, he noted.
'America First'
This is not happening now, the Georgetown scholar noted, since the Trump administration has no interest in the new Russia sanctions bill in the first place.
"Ironically this is a kind of ‘America First' policy, but with a very different interpretation, being pushed by members of Congress who see themselves as stepping in and protecting American democracy from Russian meddling”, said Anderson.
While both experts expressed their hope that the bill could be implemented in a way that would not unduly penalize European companies and hurt transatlantic ties, Anderson remained cautious.
"There is no guarantee that that will happen given the fact that we haven't seen too much in the way of great coordination from the US government on European issues since January.”
