Since 1999, the G20 has served as a forum bringing together the world's leading industrial nations and emerging economies. It is this diversity of development levels and political systems that makes the group so valuable in the eyes of its members. Comprising 19 countries as well as the European Union and the African Union, its members together account for more than 80% of global economic output.

This time, three of the world's most powerful leaders are missing — an unprecedented occurrence in the history of the organization: US President Donald Trump, Russia's Vladimir Putin, and China's Xi Jinping.

Xi offered no explanation for his withdrawal. Putin, under the shadow of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over the war in Ukraine, faces the constant risk of detention abroad and has not attended in person since 2019.

Unlike China and Russia, the United States is not sending any delegation to South Africa at all.

The US President defended his decision by alleging that white farmers in South Africa were being persecuted and killed, while the government failed to intervene.

The South African government has categorically rejected the allegation, while Berlin likewise finds no evidence of genocide against white South Africans.

A new world order

What does the absence of the big three mean for the G20?

"It shows that the three bullies of world politics clearly no longer attach much importance to this event — each for very different reasons," political scientist Johannes Varwick wrote to DW.

Varwick, a professor of international relations at the University of Halle, added: "This is not a good sign for the kind of multilateralism that has long been cultivated in the Group of 20."

For Chancellor Friedrich Merz, however, this is no reason to stay away — quite the opposite.

"It is an important signal of multilateralism that the chancellor is sending. And I would urge people not to focus only on those who are absent, but on those who are present," said government spokesman Sebastian Hille. "The G20 is and remains an important format for the federal government."

The German government described a challenging international climate for the G20, noting that the cooperative system it supports is under increasing pressure.

The strain is most evident in Russia's war against Ukraine. Even within the G20, some states have declined to condemn the invasion and not only refuse to join sanctions against Moscow but, like India, have profited by acting as intermediaries for Russian oil.

The geopolitical realignment since the G20's founding has also been marked by China's dramatic economic and military rise. Beijing has leveraged its growing influence both by supporting Russia in the war against Ukraine and by imposing export restrictions on rare earths.

"We are witnessing a rapid redistribution of global political weight and power," observed Johannes Varwick. "The politically divided West is no longer the decisive power in many areas, while the states of the Global South are asserting themselves with new confidence."

New priorities, new alliances

The upcoming G20 summit will be the first ever held in South Africa — and indeed on the  African continent. The hosts intend to seize the moment: South Africa aims to push for a transition to clean energy in developing countries and for debt relief in poorer nations. Yet it is precisely this agenda that the US views with skepticism.

Germany takes a markedly different view.

"I will use the opportunity to engage in a deeper dialogue, particularly with the African states," the chancellor said before his departure — undeterred by the prospect of further cancellations.

Following the G20 meeting, Merz will travel on to Angola for the EU-African Union summit. According to the government, this sends an important signal of cooperation between Europe and Africa.

In the run-up to the summit, more than 500 economists and experts urged the creation of a commission to address global wealth inequality. In an open letter to G20 representatives, they warned that "Extreme concentrations of wealth translate into undemocratic concentrations of power, unravelling trust in our societies and polarising our politics."

The group, led by Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz, is hoping for backing from Chancellor Friedrich Merz. After all, Germany helped launch the 'Global Alliance against Inequality' in June — an initiative that champions social justice.

Deep divisions among G20 members mean it is already clear there will be no joint communiqué from the summit, only a statement issued by the South African hosts.

What does the future of the G20 look like under these circumstances?

"Formats such as BRICS Plus are likely to gain greater prominence. In that setting, China and Russia are spared Western moral lectures," wrote Johannes Varwick.

BRICS is a grouping with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa at the center. At its 2023 summit, the group invited six additional countries to join as new members.

In place of multilateralism and the rules-based order that Germany supports, an era of "purely interest-driven and shifting minilateralism" is increasingly taking hold, wrote Varwick.

Despite these headwinds — particularly for the German government — Varwick concludes: "For middle powers like Germany, it remains wise to rely on multilateral formats."

This article was originally written in German.

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