Taking place on the Japanese island Ise-Shima, the G7 summit will likely focus on the region's tense maritime standoff. But a solution to the many conflicts involved is distant - and will require a lot of untangling.
Image: Reuters/I. Kato
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During his recent state visit to Vietnam, US President Barack Obama warned that "bigger nations should not bully smaller nations" and called for a peaceful solution to the territorial conflicts broiling in the Asia Pacific. In so doing, he was helping to set the stage for one of the central issues for the upcoming G7 summit.
Host-country Japan had already made it clear in April that it expects the summit to result in a statement on the security of sea navigation. The fuss over the topic is justified - behind it rests the strategic balance of a rapidly shifting Asia.
South China Sea dispute
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The rise of China has shaken the regional order that was set in place by the victorious powers of World War II and solidified during the Cold War. The country's massive military buildup has especially worried its neighbors. Its defense budget has grown more than ten percent annually for over ten years.
And then the US was drawn in, as former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced the country's "pivot to Asia." The new policy planned for a stronger diplomatic, economic and military engagement in the Asia Pacific, especially with its allies Japan and the Philippines. It aims, among other things, to assure America's anxious partners in the region of its support.
Islands of contention
Much of the tension can be pinpointed to a number of disputed island territories. Japan and China, for example, are feuding over the Senkaku (or Diaoyutai, depending on which side you ask) Islands, which contain natural gas reserves as well as strategic importance. Both countries are also implicated in spats with South Korea over other islands.
Indonesia destroys a ship fishing illegally in its South China Sea watersImage: Reuters/Fiqman Sunandar/Antara Foto
In the South China Sea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia are at loggerhreads with each other and with China over the Spratly Islands. These, too, have offer resource reserves - fish, oil and gas, especially - and a strategic position in the middle of one of the world's most important sea routes.
The US has kept itself in the background of these conflicts, making no territorial claims for any of the disputed islands but wielding influence through its allies. It accuses China of threatening freedom of navigation and risking the outbreak of violence in the region with its militarization.
Beijing's island-building in the South China Sea
Satellite images show the extent and speed of China's land reclamation activities in disputed waters of the South China Sea. The new land masses are believed to be primarily military installations.
Image: CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative/DigitalGlobe
Runway
China is expanding the construction of its facilities on Fiery Cross Reef. Provided by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), this June 28, 2015 photo reveals Beijing has nearly completed a 3,000 meter (9,800-foot) airstrip, long enough to accommodate most Chinese military aircraft. Two helipads, up to 10 satellite communications antennas, and one possible radar tower are also visible.
Image: CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative/DigitalGlobe
Expansion
Reclamation on Fiery Cross Reef, which lies on the west side of the Spratly Islands, began in August of 2014 and its principal landmass was finished by November. Dredgers have created a land mass that spans the entire existing reef and is approximately 3,000 meters long and 200-300 meters wide.
Image: Reuters//U.S. Navy
Facilities
This picture taken last November shows construction work being carried out on Fiery Cross Reef. The reef reportedly already houses a helicopter landing pad, a 300-meter-long wharf, a harbor large enough to dock military tankers, barracks and artillery emplacements.
Image: CSIS, IHS Jane's
South Johnson Reef
This reef was one of the first facilities to finish principal land reclamation. This recent picture shows that a radar tower is nearing completion at the north end of the land mass. According to AMTI, a new large multi-level military facility has been built in the center of the island. Up to six surveillance towers are being constructed alongside four possible weapons towers.
Image: Asia Maritime Transparency Iniative
A naval base?
Beginning in early 2015, Mischief Reef - also located in the Spratlys - has undergone extensive reclamation activity. Experts say that the recent widening of the southern entrance to the reef, coupled with sightings of Chinese navy vessels, may suggest a future role for the reclaimed reef as a naval base. Taken on March 17, this image shows a chain of small land formations at the reef.
Image: CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative/DigitalGlobe
From reef to island
Significant construction on Gaven Reef began in 2014, with a total of 114,000 square meters of land already created. Satellite pictures show just how fast construction has progressed on the reef. A new artificial island was created between March (left) and August (right) 2014.
According to AMTI, China has had a troop garrison on Gaven Reef since 2003, which has included a large supply platform where ships can dock. Experts say a new main square building in the reef appears to be an anti-aircraft tower.
Image: AMTI
A standardized process
As seen in this image, the basic process of expanding these features involves dredging sand from the seafloor and dumping it onto the reefs. The structure is raised above the high water line, hiding the status of the bank or reef beneath. The sand is then smoothed out and workers surround the island with a concrete barrier to protect against erosion and storm surge, and begin construction.
Image: CSIS
'Historic rights'
China claims most of the potentially energy-rich waterway, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. The US Pacific Fleet commander recently said China was "creating a great wall of sand" in the South China Sea, causing serious concerns about its territorial intentions. Beijing argues it is asserting its so-called "historic rights" to maritime resources in the area.
Image: DW
Territorial disputes
The Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have overlapping claims, which have led to territorial disputes in the area. Last summer, China's deployment of a massive oil rig in waters also claimed by Hanoi escalated tensions in the region, sparking a standoff at sea and violent anti-Chinese demonstrations in Vietnam.
Image: picture alliance/AP Photo
US concerns
Washington is concerned China's efforts carry a military dimension that could undermine the US' naval and economic power in the Pacific, and has weighed sending warships and surveillance aircraft within 12 nautical miles of the new artificial islands. Washington has repeatedly called on Beijing and others to end reclamation projects in the disputed waters, but Beijing rejects those demands.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/M. Abbugao
Ecological impact
The Philippines filed a formal plea at the UN last year, challenging Beijing's territorial claims. Manila said China's reclamation activities are causing "irreversible and widespread damage to the biodiversity and ecological balance of the South China Sea." It also claimed that the destruction of coral reef systems is estimated to cause economic losses valued at $100 million annually.
Image: CC2.0/TheAnimalDay
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As of now, the battle is only taking place in court. The Philippines is seeking legal clarification with the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague over what it sees as China's expansive aspirations in the South China Sea. China's ambassador to Germany, Shi Mingde, made his country's position on the matter clear in an opinion piece published earlier this month in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung - it will "not accept, recognize or participate" in the trial. A decision is expected in the coming weeks.
A tangled mess
Altogether, the situation is a confusing entanglement of actors and demands, involving economic and security interests, the law of the sea and, dangerously, nationalist resentments.
"There are more than a dozen territorial conflicts in the region. The front lines are not very clear," Enrico Fels, political scientist at the University of Bonn's Center for Global Studies, told DW. China is indeed at the center of most of the conflicts, but it is conducting a number of different strategies depending on the country. "Basically it is trying to prevent a united front in the region from forming against it."
The situation is even more unclear because the actors are often both strategic rivals and economic partners. According to information from the World Trade Organization, for example, China is Japans second-most important export market, behind the US. For its part, Japan is one of the top five destinations for Chinese goods.
Calming the waters
"There were clear fronts during the Cold War, and that of course lent the conflict a certain measure of stability and predictability," political scientist Gerhard Will told DW. "What we are seeing now is a situation in which many more possibilities are in play. But these possibilities of course also entail fragility and misunderstandings - and therefore potentially conflict."
A meeting of G7 foreign ministers stoked China's ire when it criticized the country's actions in the South China SeaImage: picture-alliance/AP Photo/J. Ernst
To calm the waters, Fels believes the involved nations must begin to "depoliticize the disputes and seek legal solutions." But this is unlikely anytime soon, he believes, especially as China would view such an approach with skepticism.
That was made clear after G7 foreign ministers released a statement in April repeating their tried and true position that the freedom of navigation is an important international value, that conflicts should be peacefully resolved, and that they are following the developments in the East and South China Seas with concern.
"This very cautious positioning of the G7 foreign ministers set off an enormous diplomatic reaction from China," said Fels. Nonetheless, he thinks it is important that the G7 stands its ground. "It is absolutely right if the G7, in careful and admonishing words, push for a peaceful settlement of the conflicts."
