Francophone Africa has experienced a series of coups since 2020. In Malitwice, followed by Guinea, Burkina-Faso, Niger, and finally Gabon. The coups raised concerns about the stability and democracy in the region.

In an interview with DW, Ingo Badoreck, from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation — affiliated with the German opposition party, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), explained that while in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger duly elected presidents were ousted from office by power-hungry military leaders taking advantage of a general sense of insecurity, the military government in Gabon appears to have ousted an autocratic despot.

50 years of the Bongo dynasty

For over half a century, the Bongo family used authoritarian methods to cling to power in the resource-rich Gabon. Omar Bongo was president from 1967 until he died in 2009. His 41 years in office was one of the longest of any head of state in Africa. He was succeeded in office by his son Ali Bongo. The Bongo clan's long reign and autocratic rule led to widespread dissatisfaction.

After Ali Bongo's controversial reelection in 2016, he brutally crushed anti-government protests, in which at least 27 people died.

On August 26, 2023, Gabon held another election. Official results certified a clear victory for Bongo, who was hoping to extend the family's rule to 55 years. Hardly anyone in the country considered the results credible. Four days later, on August 30, 2023, the military declared the election results null and void. They deposed Ali Bongo and appointed his cousin Brice Oligui Nguema interim president.

A promise of free and transparent elections in 2025 

One year after the military seized power, there is a relatively clear roadmap for organizing the return to democratic forms of government. In the months following the coup, the transitional government organized an "inclusive national dialogue" open to all levels of civil society. One of the most important results was the introduction of a presidential system with a maximum of two seven-year terms in office. Plans are also in place to strengthen decentralization and citizen participation.

The transitional period until democratic elections are held has been set at 24 months, albeit with the possibility of an extension. While the military government in Gabon has promised to hold the elections in August 2025, there are still challenges ahead.

"There is still no concrete timetable for the presidential elections," Ingo Barodeck of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation said. "We now have to wait for very concrete plans from the Ministry of the Interior, which is now responsible, to hold these elections in a year." Barodeck said there are concerns that the uncertainty and the potential for logistical and political challenges could delay the return to democratic governance in Gabon.

Despite those fears, transitional ruler Oligui Nguema has repeatedly affirmed on the international stage that he would stick to this timetable. With his assurances, he ensured that Gabon's suspended Central African Economic Community ECCAS membership was reinstated in March. French President Emmanuel Macron later hosted him at a reception with military honors at the Elysee Palace.

Will Oligui Nguema cling to power?

Speculation is mounting in Gabon that General Oligui Nguema is using the transitional period to prepare his presidential candidacy. In an interview, political analyst Astanyas Bouka told DW that "his ambitions are great, and he tried from the outset to involve representatives of civil society in his transitional government to take the wind out of the opposition's sails."

"We are committed to the side of the transitional government in this transitional phase because we initiated this process from the beginning," Georges Mpaga, a well-known human rights activist in Gabon and a member of the transitional government's economic, social, and environmental council, told DW. 

"Through our lobbying and protests, we contributed to dismantling the Bongo system even before the coup," Mpaga added. However, it remains to be seen what role civil society will play in the post-transition period.

A new era for disgruntled Gabonese

After the coup, there were scenes of jubilation on Gabon's streets. The youth demanded better living conditions and a fairer distribution of the country's wealth. According to World Bank data, per capita income in the oil-rich country was one of the highest in sub-Saharan Africa in 2021 at just over $4,500 (€4,056). However, a third of Gabon's 2.3 million people live below the poverty line.

The influential Catholic Church has thrown its weight behind the new transition rulers. Despite Gabon's secular constitution, the Church often influences political matters, as seen in the recent protests for transparent elections. Brice Oligui Nguema, the interim president, a devout Catholic, like three-quarters of Gabon's population, is seen as the 'dawn of a new era' by the Christian majority. This support adds a layer of legitimacy to the transition, reassuring the population about the country's direction.

Sidella Nymane in Libreville contributed to this report

Editor: Chrispin Mwakideu