In an event covered by Russian media at the end of 2023, President Vladimir Putin was presented with production figures from the domestic arms industry. Sergei Chemezov, the chief executive officer of state-owned Rostec, announced that the company was now producing 50 times more ammunition for small arms in addition to the multiple-rocket launchers that have become notorious on the front lines in Ukraine, which itself has an acute shortage of such artillery munitions.

Chemezov's report stated that Russia now produces seven times more tanks than before the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The presentation was intended to demonstrate strength in Russia's arms race with Ukraine's backers, led by the United States. A few days later, as if to prove a point, Russia battered Ukraine with three heavy missile and drone airstrikes.

Ukrainian air defenses usually manage to protect the capital, Kyiv, where most of the state-of-the-art internationally provided defense systems, such as the Iris-T SLM from Germany and the US-built Patriot, are located. The city of Kharkiv, in northeastern Ukraine, recently suffered serious damage, however.

Russia has resorted to massive shelling to boost effectiveness, Gustav Gressel, a senior policy fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations who specializes in armed conflict, told DW. "On average, the chance of a missile getting through is higher if it is used during a massive attack," Gressel said. "The Ukrainian air defense shoots down 90% of all missiles during limited attacks and only about 70% during large attacks."

Ukraine is waiting for Germany to deliver a fourth Iris-T battery by the end of the winter and four more systems by the end of 2024, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat told DW.

In mid-January, Ukrainian air defenses shot down a Russian A-50 plane and damaged an Ilyushin-22 flying over the Sea of Azov — a surprise success, and possibly a response to the massive New Year airstrikes. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces, thanked the Air Force "for the excellently planned and executed mission" on his Telegram channel. Russia has not confirmed the incident.

This third year of war will be "essentially about mastering the electromagnetic field," Austrian military expert Markus Reisner told DW before the beginning of the winter, referring to reconnaissance using drones, radar aircraft and satellites.

Contractors in Germany have increased production of air defense supplies for Ukraine. "Germany Arms Up — Industry Wants to Produce More Weapons for Ukraine and the Army," read a headline in the Handelsblatt business newspaper in early January. That referred to two major contractors: Rheinmetall, which has been supplying ammunition for the Gepard anti-aircraft tank to Ukraine since last August, and Diehl Defense, which makes the Iris-T.

'Refurbished and re-equipped'?

What looks like a success story for Russian arms production may be more of a mixed picture. It's worth "looking behind the propaganda and into the details," security expert Nico Lange told DW.

"The battle tanks they are allegedly producing are in fact refurbished and re-equipped battle tanks that were in storage," Lange said. "They're often not equipped with modern targeting devices due to technology sanctions, and they lack certain components, meaning they can only fire very inaccurately, or must come to a stop before firing."

That applies to tanks, which are often used in area bombardments, a tactic that dates back to the Soviet Union's military doctrine. However, in the case of highly complex weapon systems such as cruise missiles, Russia has succeeded in "circumventing sanctions or finding solutions, for example, to obtain critical components from third countries, or from countries that do not control export restrictions as closely or do not comply with them exactly," Lange said.

Defense purchasing guarantees

Lange said Germany had been slow to realize "that a long war could ultimately be decided on an industrial basis." This means that, in the long term, the war will be won by the side with more and better weapons. It It takes time to ramp up arms production, and German politicians had long clung to hopes that sanctions would bring about a quick end to the war.

Manufacturers of complex air-defense batteries such as Diehl Defense have now received purchase guarantees from Germany's government. Updated at the beginning of January, the German Defense Ministry's list of commissioned and delivered armaments states that Ukraine is now set to receive urgently needed Iris-T SLM anti-aircraft batteries.

Based in southwestern Germany, a region known for its highly specialized mechanical engineering companies and metal industry, Diehl is rapidly expanding. In December, the company was able to buy up an entire additional factory and a company that manufactures precision parts.

Ukraine still lacks many of the armaments it has requested "due to long industrial lead times and late decisions," Lange said. However, the fact that Ukraine's backers are expanding industrial production could lead to "a much better situation for ammunition at the end of 2024 or in 2025."

This article was originally written in German.

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