Stretching along Germany's Baltic coast, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is known for the tourist draws of Rügen and Usedom, the quiet island of Hiddensee with the grave of playwright Gerhart Hauptmann, and the historic universities of Greifswald and Rostock, among the oldest in the country. The state is also shaped by its industrial heritage, including its shipyards and the vast nuclear power plant at Lubmin, built in former East Germany and closed in 1995.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is Germany's most sparsely populated federal state, with a population of just 1.57 million at the end of 2025. The unemployment rate in the structurally weak state stands at 8%, above the national average. At roughly 6%, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania also has by far the lowest share of foreign nationals of any of Germany's 16 federal states.

For many former East Germans, the state is associated with long summers spent at campsites and holiday resorts along the Baltic coast. It is also home to 16 national parks, more than any other federal state in Germany, and to the Mecklenburg Lake District, centered on Lake Müritz.

Yet this federal state was also the scene of some of the earliest violent attacks on asylum-seeker accommodations following German reunification. Images of burning housing blocks in Rostock-Lichtenhagen in August 1992 were broadcast around the world. That year, the number of asylum seekers in Germany reached a provisional peak of 440,000, fueling heated debates across the country.

In August of that year, hundreds of far-right rioters attacked a residential building in Rostock that housed around 100 people from Vietnam. The building was set on fire as some 3,000 local residents applauded the attackers. Miraculously, no one was killed, though many people were injured. It was the worst outbreak of racist violence in Germany since the Second World War.

Incumbency advantage may help Manuela Schwesig

Former Chancellor Angela Merkel had her electoral district in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. For around 28 years, the state has been governed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in coalition with various partners.

Most recently, it has been led by the popular state premier and former federal minister Manuela Schwesig. The 52-year-old heads a coalition with the socialist Left Party. Schwesig stands a good chance of ensuring that this remains the case after the election on September 20.

Schwesig, who for a long time trailed the far-right populist Alternative for Germany party (AfD) by a wide margin in the polls, has been campaigning on the slogan "The woman against blue" — a reference to the AfD's party color.

In a televised debate with AfD lead candidate Leif-Erik Holm just over ten days before the election, the state premier described the AfD as "the most dangerous party for our country, for the economy, for social welfare, and also for us women." Addressing Holm directly, she added: "You are talking the country down."

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is not an AfD stronghold

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is the only eastern German state where the domestic intelligence agency has not classified the AfD as "confirmed right-wing extremist." 

The center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the party of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is polling at a historic low, the lowest in any German state. A poor showing in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania could further fuel debate over the increasingly unpopular chancellor. The environmentalist Greens are also fighting to remain in the state parliament, with support hovering around the 5% threshold for representation.

With a vote distribution like this, it is highly unlikely that a majority could be assembled to elect AfD lead candidate Leif-Erik Holm as state premier. After all, every party with a realistic chance of entering the state parliament has ruled out any cooperation with the AfD.

The party's lead candidate, Leif-Erik Holm, deliberately cultivates a down-to-earth image. At campaign events, he draws on his experience as a radio host, including with the public broadcaster NDR. A member of the Bundestag for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) since 2017, he repeatedly taps into widespread dissatisfaction with the government, the economic slowdown, and the comparatively difficult social conditions in the structurally weak and sparsely populated northeast.

Holm cannot match the popular SPD state premier, Schwesig, in head-to-head comparisons of the leading candidates. But the AfD's support in the polls, neck and neck with the SPD, underscores just how deeply divided Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania remains.

Governing the coastal state is unlikely to become any easier in the years to come.

This article has been translated from German.