Projected initial results put the far-right AfDahead of its rivals in Thuringia and on course for a gain in Saxony. The votes in the two German states are seen as barometers for the federal elections next year and a referendum on the governing coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats. 

Thuringia — far-right AfD in the lead

For many observers, the most influential result was in Thuringia, where the AfD became the first far-right party to win a state election since WWII, getting almost 10% more than the Christian Democrats (CDU), Germany's center-right conservative party.

Notably, the three parties that make up the governing coalition of Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the national level in Berlin have all seen devastating results.  

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is firmly in third place, ahead of the Left Party — the old party of BSW leader Wagenknecht. The BSW has quickly gained ground in eastern Germany after only being formed in January 2024.

Based on initial projected results, the 88-seat parliament is now projected to have about 31 AfD lawmakers, 23 from the CDU, 15 from BSW, 13 from the Left Party and only 6 from the Social Democrats (SPD). With the Green Party having apparently failed to make the 5% threshold required to make it into parliament, they won't get a single seat. Given that all other parties have ruled out a coalition with the AfD, it appears extremely unlikely the far-right party would be able to form a government. But the fact they're on track to control over one-third of the seats means they would be able to block some state assembly decisions, such as voting for judges.

The 2024 election is only the third time the AfD ran for parliament in Thuringia. Founded in 2013, the party is still a relative newcomer on Germany's political stage but it has seen a steady rise in popularity, particularly in some states in eastern Germany. In Thuringia, it has managed to triple its share of votes over the past three state elections from 10% in 2014 to more than 30% in 2024.

While the AfD has continuously gained votes in Thuringia, the ruling parties in the state government have faired less well. The Left Party, the SPD and the Greens, which first formed a coalition government in 2014, have all experienced a declining share of the votes for state parliament.

Saxony — Conservatives just ahead of AfD

In Saxony, the scenario is only slightly better for the parties in the center of the political spectrum. With around 32% support, the Christian Democrats have only a slight edge over the AfD's 30.8%. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance comes in third with 12%. 

Again, the parties of Germany's governing coalition have fared very poorly. The Social Democrats are just over 7%, while the Greens have just about cracked the 5% threshold. 

Based on those preliminary results, the AfD would be only two seats behind the CDU's 42 in the state parliament, with BSW, SPD, and the Greens also represented in the Saxony legislature.

As with Thuringia, it's only the third time the AfD makes into the Saxony regional parliament, again trippling their share of votes since 2014.

The previous governing parties of CDU, SPD and the Greens, which formed a so-called "Kenya coalition" (named for their party colors of black, red and green) in 2019, have all seen their share of votes for the state parliament in Saxony decline whie the AfD's share has continually grown. 

While you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter Berlin Briefing.

Edited by: Sean M. Sinico