In the three state elections in eastern Germany in September, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won more votes than ever before, even though the party adopted particularly extreme positions in those states and has been classified as right-wing extremist by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Germany's domestic intelligence agency.

However, this does not bother the party's supporters in the least. According to the latest ARD Deutschlandtrend survey, 84% of AfD voters agree with the statement: "I don't care that the AfD has been labeled partly right-wing extremist, as long as it addresses the right issues."

For this survey, the pollsters from infratest-dimap questioned a representative sample of 1321 Germans eligible to vote from October 7 to 9.

Overall, two-thirds of respondents said they believe that a strong AfD is a danger to democracy and the rule of law in Germany. Many politicians also share this view. However, opinions begin to diverge when it comes to the question of how best to combat the AfD.

A few months ago, a group of Bundestag lawmakers came together across party lines to file a motion with the Federal Constitutional Court to ban the AfD. However, the motion is highly controversial even among the various parties. The neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are entirely opposed to the move. Most of those in favor are in the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens. The Deutschlandtrend survey shows a similar picture.

Almost half of those surveyed said that banning the party would not be appropriate at the moment, while almost just as many said they were in favor of a ban. Only within the SPD and the Greens was the majority in favor of a ban. While center-right Christian Democrat (CDU) supporters were split 50/50 on the issue, supporters of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance were generally opposed.

The next scheduled Bundestag election will take place in the fall of 2025. The most likely candidates for chancellor are currently Friedrich Merz for the CDU/CSU, Robert Habeck for the Greens, Alice Weidel for the AfD, and Olaf Scholz for the SPD. According to the survey, no candidate has been able to convince Germans' that they would make a good chancellor.

As for the current office holder, 22% think Scholz has been a good chancellor. However, the percentage of people who think one of the other candidates would make a good chancellor is similarly low or not significantly higher: One in four (26%) can currently imagine that Friedrich Merz would make a good chancellor, while one in five would say the same about Robert Habeck (21%) and only one in ten about Alice Weidel (11%).

The moderate approval ratings for Chancellor Scholz and the low hopes for the Green Party leader are a reflection of the continuing dissatisfaction with the performance of the ruling coalition government. Some 79% say they are dissatisfied.

The state of the governing coalition of SPD, Greens, and FDP is so bad that early Bundestag elections seem to be a possibility. If elections were held next Sunday, the governing coalition would no longer have a majority. The FDP would not even make it back into the Bundestag.

Although the Sunday poll shows that the CDU/CSU has seen a slight drop in support compared to last month, the party would still be on track to win 31% (-2). The second strongest party would be the AfD with an unchanged 17%, closely followed by the SPD with 16% (+1). The Greens would come in at 13% (+2). The FDP would have to settle for 3% (-1), the party's lowest rating since February 2015. And the Left Party would also have to rely on winning direct mandates with 3% (+/-0). The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance would still be able to count on a secure place in the Bundestag with 8% (+/-0).

US election opinions

For the last time before the US presidential election, infratest-dimap pollsters asked German voters who they would like to see in the White House.

The majority of respondents (78%) are still more convinced by the Democratic candidate, Vice-President Kamala Harris, than by the Republican former President Donald Trump (8%). This finding holds across all demographic groups and voter segments. The exception was AfD voters, who showed roughly equal support for both candidates.

Who are Germany's allies?

As for the reputation of the US in Germany, the country's image is better now at the close of US President Joe Biden's term in office than it was at the end of the Trump era. Roughly half of Germans currently view the US as a trustworthy partner.

France continues to enjoy a far better reputation among Germans than the US. Russia, on the other hand, is now viewed with deep mistrust by Germans in both East and West. Voters are divided (40/45%) on the question of whether Ukraine, a country currently under attack from Russia, should be seen as one of Germany's partners. At the same time, a majority of voters (55%) still have difficulty seeing Israel as a trustworthy partner in foreign policy.

Respondents who said that they did not see the US as one of Germany's trustworthy partners were asked to explain why. 23% said it was because the US pursues its own national interests in the world unilaterally. 16% named Donald Trump as the reason. 9% were of the opinion that the US interferes in German and European affairs. 8% referred to US military interventions.

As of 2026, the US and Germany plan to deploy new US medium-range missiles and cruise missiles in Germany capable of reaching Russia. What do citizens think of the plan?

Opinions remain divided on this issue. 40% of Germans say it is the right decision, 45% disagree. While the missiles would only be deployed at a US base in western Germany, most opposition came from eastern Germany (57%). In western Germany, support and opposition were roughly equal (44:41 percent).

A look at the party affiliation reveals that around half of supporters of the CDU/CSU (55%), SPD (50%), and the Greens (49%) support the deployment plans. In contrast, most AfD (26:62%) and BSW (25:69%) supporters oppose the plans.

This article was originally written in German.

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