Those who pay attention to the European election posters in Germany can see that external threat is a reliable campaign tactic. Grim-faced candidates with words like "security" and "strength" alongside them appear to be on every street corner.

German politicians have been preparing people for dangerous times since Russia's attack on Ukraine in February 2022, especially because the Bundeswehr is not considered to be up to the task of defense. Leading military officials warn that the German armed forces would be unable to fulfill its NATO alliance obligations and ineffective in defending Germany itself.

Chancellor puts brakes on spending

That is why German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is calling for more funds for the Bundeswehr. In 2022, just after the Ukraine war began, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a "special fund" of €100 billion ($108 billion) for the armed forces — but that created new debts, and Pistorius wants an extra €6.5 billion in the 2025 military budget.

He insisted that this additional expenditure must be exempted from the "debt brake" provision in the German constitution — which stipulates that the state can only spend as much money as it takes in, with a few exceptions.

The minister found support for his argument in a legal opinion published by his ministry, which argued that Germany's ability to defend itself has higher constitutional status than the "debt brake."

Frank Sauer, a professor of international politics and security at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, believes that even with the €100 billion injection, the Bundeswehr is still underfunded. He argues that if there is not significantly more funding by 2026, the German army would only be able to "maintain ongoing operations with the utmost effort" and nothing more.

But German Finance Minister Christian Lindner has so far refused to grant the additional billions, and he is supported by the chancellor. The high-level dispute over defense spending appears to be on the verge of boiling over.

What if Trump wins?

But how truly threatening is the situation? Munich Security Conference chief Christoph Heusgen said in February that President Vladimir Putin's goal is to restore a greater Russia within the former Soviet Union's borders.

"If Putin doesn't lose the war in Ukraine, we must expect he will continue with the Republic of Moldova or the Baltic States," Heusgen predicted.

In a recent newspaper interview, Pistorius said that Germany's military has five to eight years to catch up. Fabian Hoffmann, a nuclear strategy researcher at Oslo University, posted an even more dire prediction on X, formerly Twitter, earlier this year, "In my opinion, we have at best two to three years to restore deterrence against Russia."

Sauer does not yet see any acute threat to a NATO member state, but he thinks a scenario in which Donald Trump wins the upcoming US presidential election could make things more precarious. In his current election campaign, the former president has several times said that Europeans who have not paid their "bill" for defense will no longer be protected.

Sauer argues that European countries are unable to take over certain military tasks that the US has carried out until now. At the same time, due to a lack of Western support, Ukraine might become a shrunken state. The war would be as good as won for Russia.

"Putin is approaching 80," said Sauer, extending the hypothetical scenario, "and he now wants to complete his life's work and establish a greater Russia. Perhaps he will decide to test whether that's possible, after all, and invade one or more of the Baltic states. And the US would say: 'That's not our problem. You don't pay your bills anyway, and we're also busy with China.'" The security expert believes that might not necessarily happen in the next five years, but it could.

Survey shows little fear of threats

Germany's population does not seem to feel the threat to the same extent. According to a recent YouGov survey, only around a third of Germans (36%) believe a Russian attack on NATO territory by 2030 is likely or somewhat likely, while 48% consider it unlikely or somewhat unlikely.

Only 23% consider it likely or somewhat likely that Germany could become the target of a Russian attack this decade. Some 61% consider it unlikely or somewhat unlikely. Only 2% are convinced that the Bundeswehr is very well positioned for national defense, while 12% see the army as "rather well" positioned. 39% are convinced that it is very poorly or rather poorly prepared for an attack.

The results of another survey carried out by the Civey Institute in March are likely to grab the attention of German security politicians and military officials. They show that only 30% of Germans would be prepared to take up arms to defend the country in the event of a military attack, while more than 50% would not fight.

"We are living in an era of massive historical upheaval," said Sauer, but he added that that is not yet registering with the German population: "It takes a while for our minds to change. And we will not be able to get this across by force, or by a few speeches or a handful of headlines."

Sauer appreciates that politicians are facing difficult decisions about financing a Bundeswehr upgrade: "I would rather build wind turbines, put solar panels on roofs and build kindergartens – unfortunately, we have to build armored howitzers, cruise missiles and combat drones instead." In the end, he added, it doesn't matter how the money is raised, but Sauer is convinced that things cannot continue as they are now.

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