What will define Germany in 2021? The fight against the coronavirus pandemic? Or rather the political battles as the country faces several elections — and the task to replace Chancellor Angela Merkel.
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At the moment, nothing in Germany is more important than the coronavirus pandemic, and that's likely to remain so in the new year.
Resistance is growing to the curbs on individual freedoms brought about by rules made to combat COVID-19. "A social movement is brewing, in which right-wing and left-wing extremists, but also esotericists and science deniers, are gathering," political scientist Florian Hartleb told DW.
Seven elections
The balancing act between protecting public health and people's rights to freedom will also influence elections, and there are plenty of those in Germany in 2021.
Citizens will head to the polls in six of Germany's 16 states. In Baden-Württemberg, popular Premier Winfried Kretschmann — the first and only state premier from the environmentalist Green party — is standing for reelection in March. April will be interesting in Thuringia, where Bodo Ramelow is currently the sole state premier from the Left party.
In Saxony-Anhalt, it will be decided, at the latest, by the election in June whether the troubled coalition of the conservative Christian Democrats, center-left Social Democrats, and Greens will endure.
But the most important election of the year won't be until September — the federal election, when the era of Chancellor Angela Merkel is set to come to an end. After 16 years and four terms in government, the Christian Democrat wants to step down. Merkel would then have been in office almost as long as the current record holder, Helmut Kohl.
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Adieu, Angie!
What will the Germans miss with her departure? "Her will to persevere, the irrepressible, almost inhuman work ethic, the inner discipline and the scientific element in politics," believes Florian Hartleb. He sees as negative points of her time in office "her nebulous, cliché-ridden language" and "her stubbornly pursued refugee policy, accompanied by a naïve welcoming culture," which allowed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to grow.
Angela Merkel: 16 years as German chancellor
Angela Merkel has been German chancellor since 2005. Here are some major moments in her long tenure that led the country through a period of tremendous change.
'Kohl's girl' no longer
Former Chancellor Helmut Kohl and other political insiders once called her his "girl." Merkel stepped out of his shadow in 2001, when she led the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) in the opposition. But her real moment came in 2005.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/A. Altwein
Narrow victory
In the 2005 general election, the CDU, along with its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, eked out a win over the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), led by then-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. It was actually the CDU's worst election performance in its history and an inauspicious start for Merkel, but she hit the ground running.
Image: Stefan Sauer/dpa/picture alliance
A new chancellor
The CDU and SPD formed a "grand coalition" government and Merkel became the first woman, first former East German and the first scientist to become chancellor — as well as the youngest person ever to hold the position.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/F. Reiss
Host with the most
Merkel quickly showed prowess. At the G8 summit in 2007, she welcomed the leaders of the eight largest economies to Heiligendamm, on the Baltic Sea. She joked around with then-US President George W. Bush (left) and Russia's Vladimir Putin (right).
Image: Toshifumi Kitamura/AFP/Getty Images
Boys being boys
On the European political stage in the fall of 2008, Merkel had to share the spotlight with the big male egos of French President Nicolas Sarkozy (front) and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. The growing financial crisis quickly became the European Union's most pressing concern.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/G. Cerles
Help or hinder?
The public debt of some European Union member states kept growing, threatening the very existence of the euro as a currency. Merkel's offer to help came with austerity demands. That did not go down well, especially in Greece, where newspapers ran images comparing the moment to Nazi Germany's occupation in World War II.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/O. Panagiotou
Reluctant campaigner
Merkel is not the best orator. Her speeches are often halting and she rarely goes into depth on policy. Yet her quiet pragmatism and sober modesty have won wide appeal. That has helped her run four governments.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/F. Gentsch
'Mutti'
At some point in her long tenure, Merkel went from chancellor of the country to mother of the nation. She was sometimes referred to by supporters and opponents alike as "Mutti," a rather old-fashioned word for "mom." It can be meant a little sarcastically, but it's often also said with affection, as in this Merkel supporter's poster, a play on words that translates as "fully Mutti-vated."
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/U. Anspach
'We can do this'
Few of Merkel's statements have had such a lasting impact as the one above. The chancellor won widespread praise in 2015 for staying committed to the EU's open-border policy and allowing more than 1 million migrants and refugees, many escaping the Syrian war, to enter Germany and the bloc. A vocal minority, however, pushed back against open migration.
Image: Getty Images/S. Gallup
Time's 'Person of the Year'
Time magazine named Merkel its "Person of the Year" in 2015, and even "chancellor of the free world." She has shown her mettle in the face of multiple crises, whether financial, social or political.
Image: picture-alliance/AP Photo/Time Magazine
Model of discretion
Merkel is discreet. She remains silent on her personal thoughts about less agreeable leaders, and deals with them as a matter of state interest.
Image: Getty Images/AFP/S. Loeb
Down-to-earth
Merkel knows what a liter of milk costs, and years leading the country seem not to have gone to her head. Here in 2014, she visited a Berlin supermarket with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang. It's not unusual to spot the chancellor doing the grocery shopping on her own in downtown Berlin.
Image: picture alliance/dpa/L.Schulze
Diamond of trust
Merkel is known for holding her hands together in a diamond shape. She has said it helps her stand up straight. And it has helped the CDU: The party used the diamond symbol on campaign posters for the 2013 general election. It became synonymous with trust and calm.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/S. Simon
A private life
Merkel is a very private person. The public knows little more than the fact that her husband, Joachim Sauer, is also a scientist. The two have spent many Easters on the Italian island of Ischia. Due to the global travel slowdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, 2020 was the obvious exception.
Image: picture-alliance/ANSA/R. Olimpio
And then came COVID
The coronavirus pandemic has changed much more in Germany than Merkel's travel habits. The country — and other nations — turned to her for answers in the crisis. Her serious, fact-based style has boosted her popularity.
Image: Johanna Geron/Reuters
Auf Wiedersehen, Frau Dr. Merkel
Two years ago, Merkel made clear that she would not seek reelection in 2021. When she goes, she'll have served for 16 years — matching the record of her mentor Helmut Kohl, Germany's longest-serving chancellor.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa
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Merkel was also viewed abroad as a crisis chancellor, valued as a figure of stability in turbulent times, including the European sovereign debt crisis, Brexit and the US presidency of Donald Trump, and now with the coronavirus pandemic.
Chancellor Söder?
That's why one of the most important questions in the new year will be who will take her place. With her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) polling consistently at around 35%, far ahead of any other party, the next CDU head has a good chance of also becoming the next chancellor.
There are three candidates who want to face the CDU delegates at a digital party conference to be held in mid-January: former party whip Friedrich Merz, North Rhine-Westphalia Premier Armin Laschet and Bundestag Foreign Affairs Committee head Norbert Röttgen. But whether one of them will become a candidate for the chancellorship in addition to party head remains to be seen.
According to opinion polls, a relative majority of Germans would rather have Bavarian Premier Markus Söder from the CDU's smaller "sister party" as chancellor. It has happened before that the CSU fielded the conservative candidate for the chancellorship, but if Söder were to prevail, it would be the first time that a German chancellor would come from the regional Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU.)
Germany's CDU: Here's who could replace Angela Merkel
After Kramp-Karrenbauer pulled out of the race to succeed Angela Merkel in the next federal election, speculation is rife over who'll take over as CDU chief — and potentially chancellor.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/K. Nietfeld
Friedrich Merz: Longstanding Merkel critic
The ex-leader of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the Bundestag withdrew from frontline politics in 2009. He made a comeback in 2018 when he joined the CDU leadership race, losing narrowly to AKK. Merz recently quit his post as chairman at BlackRock, the world's largest investment management firm, to "help the conservative party renew itself." He appeals to the CDU's conservative members.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/B. von Jutrczenka
Jens Spahn: Young contender backs Laschet
The 40-year-old surprised political onlookers on February 25, when he stood beside Laschet to support the state premier's candidacy announcement. Spahn, who is openly gay, is popular in the CDU's conservative wing. "It is about the future of the country and the future of our party," Spahn said on his decision to back Laschet.
Image: Reuters/K. Pfaffenbach
Armin Laschet: Affable state premier
Laschet, a journalist and former European Parliament member, has headed Germany's most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia since 2017. The liberal-conservative is a Merkel supporter — and backed her in the 2015 refugee crisis. Another "Pizza Connection" member, he is known for being able to work with both the FDP and Greens, which may be the most likely coalition setup in the next government.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/O. Berg
Norbert Röttgen: Potential Greens ally
Röttgen served as environment minister under Merkel from 2009-2012. He now heads the Bundestag's foreign affairs committee. He designed Germany's energy transition plan and is seen as someone who could work with the Greens, the party polling second. He was also part of the "Pizza Connection," a group of CDU and Greens MPs that held meetings in the '90s and early 2000s.
Image: picture-alliance/dpa/F. Sommer
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Building blocks in Berlin
No matter who is chancellor, the union of CDU and CSU will most likely need at least one coalition partner to form a government after the election. The current partner, the Social Democrat (SPD), is not only struggling in the polls but seems tired of being in government after two terms in a grand coalition under Merkel.
The up-and-coming Greens are putting themselves forward. Under popular co-leaders Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck, they have set aside some of their more fundamentalist positions and want to join in the government. Habeck told a party conference in late November: "We're working optimistically on solutions. And for these solutions, we are fighting for power."
Söder, however, warns CDU/CSU supporters that they shouldn't take for granted that there will be a conservative-Green government. "Some people think that would be rather nice. But you need to be careful that in the end, you don't wake up to another scenario: namely Greens, SPD, and the Left." But according to current polling, those less conservative parties would not have the numbers to form a majority coalition.
A polarized society
The far-right AfD, currently the strongest opposition party in parliament, is seeing its support sink. However, the restrictions imposed because of the pandemic could drive new voters toward them. "We're experiencing a divided country," said Hartleb. "If economic decline follows the coronavirus trauma, then the social polarization will remain."
In any case, the political scientist is convinced that the COVID-19 pandemic will remain the most important topic of 2021.
"Coronavirus is the biggest crisis since 1945, with a significance which affects all levels of politics, from the local to the global."