The so-called "Islamic State" (IS) extremist group has claimed responsibility for the knife attack in Solingen. According to Amaq, the mouthpiece of IS, the attack was carried out in "revenge for Muslims in Palestine and elsewhere" and targeted a "group of Christians."

"Extremists are using the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as a way to gain momentum," Thomas Mücke told DW. He works for the Violence Prevention Network (VPN), an organization dedicated to preventing extremism and deradicalizing violent criminals. Since October 7, 2023, when Hamas killed scores of Israeli civilians, and Israel responded with a counterattack in the Gaza Strip, Mücke has seen "a fourfold increase" in the number of attacks and attempted attacks in Western Europe in comparison to 2022.

The attack in Solingen was one of a whole series of Islamist attacks and attempted attacks across Europe in recent weeks, although it is not always clear whether it was IS that was behind them.

On the same day as the attack in Solingen, two cars exploded outside a synagogue in La Grande-Motte in southern France.

Austrian authorities arrested two suspected IS sympathizers shortly before two planned concerts by US singer Taylor Swift in Vienna in early August. The main suspect, a 19-year-old Austrian with North Macedonian roots, said at the time of his arrest that he wanted to "kill himself and a large group of people," according to Austrian state security. The concerts were canceled.

In late May, an Afghan living in Germany fatally injured a police officer and seriously injured five other people in Mannheim. The attack was aimed at the chairman of Pax Europa, a movement critical of Islam. While no direct links to ISIS were found in this case, investigators classified the attack as "religiously motivated."

In the wake of this attack, authorities in both Germany and France expressed serious concerns about IS violence during this summer's European Football Championships in Germany and the Olympic Games in Paris. Both of these major events went off peacefully, but perhaps only thanks to increased security measures and more border controls.

Authorities have documented seven attacks and 21 attempted or planned attacks in Western Europe since October 7, 2023. Mücke thinks the rise is not surprising: "IS identified Western Europe as a target for attacks, obviously with the intention of spreading horror and fear and dividing society so that they can recruit even more people for their cause."

The most serious attack claimed by IS in recent times was not in Western Europe but in Moscow in March 2024, when more than 140 people were killed in a terrorist attack on a concert hall. "Islamic State soldiers attacked a large gathering of Christians, killing and injuring hundreds," Amak reported.

Radicalization via​ the internet

The terrorist organization came to global prominence 10 years ago when its then-leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, announced the establishment of a "caliphate" in the Near and Middle East. IS reached the peak of its power the following year, taking control of large parts of Syria and Iraq. Videos of brutal killings and beheadings, in particular, were posted online.

"IS is constantly calling for such attacks with its internet propaganda," Mücke said, "and there are also precise instructions on how to carry out attacks, such as using cars to kill infidels everywhere."

In one particularly horrific case, an IS sympathizer drove a truck into at a Berlin Christmas market in 2016, killing twelve people.

By 2019, many believed IS had been militarily defeated in the Middle East. IS attacks in Europe also declined for a while. However, with this new wave of attacks, religious extremism seems to have returned.

Mücke says that the perpetrators have become younger, with two-thirds of those arrested in Western Europe being teenagers. And the methods that are being used to appeal to them are also tailored to their age. "The internet plays a major role in radicalization and mobilization, as well as in recruitment."

A glimmer of hope: early detection of radicalization

Experts are pessimistic about the prospects for improvement in the near future. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East as of October 7, 2023, "will continue to influence the dynamics of terrorism for years to come."

In the eyes of many experts, creating knife-free zones, as Germany's Interior Minister Nancy Faeser plans to do, is of little use. According to them, someone who intends to kill people with a knife is unlikely to be deterred by such a ban.

Nevertheless, Thomas Mücke from the Violence Prevention Network does have a glimmer of hope to share. "Since October 7, the number of calls to the counseling hotlines has multiplied. And that gives us the information we need to try to intercept radicalization at a relatively early stage."

The fact that the perpetrators are now younger is also an opportunity, he says. "To start with, I'm counting on the fact that people who become radicalized will undergo a significant change in their character and that this will be noticed by those around them," he says.

"And it's important that these changes are reported as quickly as possible, that help and support is sought because every extremist scene tries to appeal to and recruit the younger generation in particular; they're the next generation. And this is where we still have the best chance of curbing extremism and terrorism."

This article was originally written in German.

While you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter Berlin Briefing.