It was "only" a regional election and Brandenburg, with its 2.1 million eligible voters, is only one of Germany's 16 federal states. Despite this, the vote in the eastern German state has a considerable impact on nationwide politics.

For the third regional election within three weeks, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party was able to record massive gains.

If "antidemocratic parties " achieved such results, then it was a day "on which no democrat can simply celebrate," as Green party co-leader Ricarda Lang said on Sunday evening.

The AfD, of course, viewed things differently. "We are extremely satisfied with the results," party co-leader Alice Weidel said. The AfD has become the strongest political force in eastern Germany, with the regional election in Brandenburg only one step along its path.

Crushing defeats for the Greens and Free Democrats

For the left-wing environmentalist Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), who form the federal coalition government in Berlin together with the Social Democrats (SPD), it was their third crushing defeat in a row. Both parties failed to reach the 5% threshold to enter the Brandenburg state parliament.

"The people feel like they are not being heard," said Ricarda Lang, adding that "we Greens at the federal and state levels need to get closer to the realities of life for people in the east."

The FDP was hit much harder. Just as in Thuringia and Saxony, the party's result in Brandenburg of less than 1% is barely measurable. The party has slipped into political irrelevance in all three states.

No tailwind from Berlin

FDP Secretary General Bijan Djir-Sarai was noticeably frustrated, speaking of a "difficult evening" after the results were announced. Once again, the neoliberals blamed the governing coalition in Berlin for the abysmal result. The so-called traffic light coalition, nicknamed in German political slang for the party colors of the SPD (red), FDP (yellow) and Green, is considered to be on shaky ground.

After almost three years in office, the two left-leaning parties (SPD and Greens) have little in common with the FDP.

Only one in five eligible voters nationwide is happy with the work of the current government. Pressing issues at the federal level, such as the ailing economy and migration, also dominated the election campaign in Brandenburg. "Currently our profile as a party for freedom-loving, optimistic and hardworking people is overshadowed by the coalition strife in Berlin," Bijan Djir-Sarai said on election night.

Could the FDP topple the federal government?

The results in Brandenburg have fueled speculation whether the FDP will stay with the coalition in Berlin or topple it. Cooperating with the Greens in particular is "toxic" for the FDP, grumbled the party's deputy leader, Wolfgang Kubicki, who has often called for the FDP to leave.

"Going by its current performance, I don't believe this coalition will last until Christmas," he said.

Djir-Sarai reacted evasively to questions about the future of the coalition. "We will discuss and deal with this result, and also the current political situation, in depth and intensively in the committees of the FDP." His party would look forward "optimistically, with a fighting spirit," he said, adding that "decisions must and will be made in the coming months."

Social Democrats want progress on key issues

It is also decision time for the SPD, according to federal party co-chair Lars Klingbeil. However, Klingbeil was referring to policies the coalition wants to implement in the coming weeks, including on the topics of pensions, budgets, and asylum. "We know that the federal government has lost momentum; we have also seen that with the other regional elections. We have challenging tasks to master in the coming weeks."

The SPD must show a "consistent stance," said Klingbeil. Brandenburg proved that the party can still win elections, he said. Klingbeil called for the party to make "progress on social democratic issues" on the federal level just as it had in Brandenburg.

SPD distances itself from...itself

However, it seems that the SPD led by Dietmar Woidke in Brandenburg won because the incumbent state premier of 11 years explicitly distanced himself from the federal coalition. There were no photo calls alongside Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Shortly before the vote, Woidke declared it a duel between the SPD and the AfD. Immensely popular in Brandenburg, he said he would only remain in state politics if the SPD won.

It was a risky move which paid off. That is not an option for the federal government, however, because Scholz is so unpopular. There is already debate within the SPD about whether Scholz would be the best chancellor candidate for the federal election in 2025. 

The SPD leadership has sought to clamp down on this speculation, however, fearing further infighting. "You know my statement, you know the clear statements from [party co-chair] Saskia Esken and from others: We want to go to the federal election with Olaf Scholz, we are clear on that," Klingbeil stressed on election evening. 

The result gives Scholz himself some breathing room. On a visit to New York on election night, he called it "a great result; great for the SPD, also for all of us."

The article was originally written in German.