The first of five regional elections in 2026, which took place in the wealthy southwestern state of Baden-Württemberg, has resulted in an unexpected victory for the ecologist Greens.

For a long time, Chancellor Friedrich Merz's center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) had been confident that it would be able to win back its former stronghold of Baden-Württemberg from the Greens. That did not happen.

In a poll conducted on election day, over 70% of voters in Baden-Wurttemberg said they were dissatisfied with the federal government's policies. However, on Monday, Merz refrained from seeing any link between his CDU's unexpected election defeat and the federal government's approach.

"This is primarily a personal victory for Cem Özdemir," the chancellor told journalists in Berlin on Monday, referring to the Green politician, who won the election, albeit by a narrow margin. 

The 60-year-old Özdemir is set to become the new head of state government, continuing a coalition with the conservatives. 

"We will be part of the new government together with the Christian Democrats," the Green Party candidate told DW on election night.

During the election campaign, Özdemir had distanced himself from leftist Greens positions and refrained from speaking out on climate protection measures such as phasing out gasoline-powered cars. After all, the crisis-ridden automotive industry is an important economic sector in Baden-Württemberg.

Özdemir is now set to become the first state premier in the history of the Federal Republic whose parents were not born in Germany. His parents came to Germany from Turkey in the 1960s.

SPD faces a shambles

In Berlin, the conservatives are in a coalition with the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has now suffered a dramatic defeat in Baden-Württemberg, mustering just 5.5% of the vote.

The party led by Lars Klingbeil and Bärbel Bas, both of whom are also ministers in Merz's cabinet, is struggling to digest this result. Bas conceded that her party had failed to get its message across that it is working for the interests of working-class voters. "We will protect industrial jobs and lower energy prices," she insisted in an interview with public broadcaster ARD on election night.

AfD doubles its vote share 

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party doubled its vote share from five years ago but still fell short of its own expectations. "We are now a mainstream party in Baden-Württemberg too," party co-leader Tino Chrupalla declared defiantly after securing 18.8% of the vote. However both the CDU and the Greens in Baden-Württemberg have categorically ruled out any cooperation with the right-wing populists.

A hangover prevailed in Berlin on Monday among the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the socialist Left party. Neither managed to cross the 5% threshold for representation in the southwestern state's regional parliament.

The FDP had hoped to reenter parliament as it badly needed a boost from the election in an area that used to be its party stronghold. The neoliberals dropped out of the federal parliament, the Bundestag, in the 2025 general election, which was called after the center-left, three-way coalition government of Greens, SPD and FDP collapsed. 

Baden-Württemberg: Heartland of the automotive industry

With a population of just over 11 million, Baden-Württemberg is considered one of Germany's economically strongest states. The crisis-hit automotive industry in particular has many big firms in the region, including Porsche and Mercedes. But the state is also characterized by a large number of smaller family businesses. Baden-Württemberg borders France to the west and Switzerland to the south.

Now, all parties are turning their attention to the next regional election, in Rhineland-Palatinate to be held in two weeks' time. There, the SPD is currently in power. Pollsters see the SPD and CDU in a neck-and-neck race.

This article was originally written in German.

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